Ole Hansen
Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen considers the implications of pledges by Saudi Arabia and Russia to raise oil production despite the likes of Iran and Venezuela not backing the move.
Article / 11 October 2012 at 4:04 GMT

3 Numbers to Watch: EZ CPI, US Jobless and WASDE

Editor / Saxo Capital Markets UK
United Kingdom

Yesterday aluminium producer Alcoa reported a USD 143 million loss for the third quarter, better than analysts had expected - nevertheless a loss is a loss.  The other big annoucnement was that merger talks between BAE-EADS had fallen through due to opposition to the deal from Berlin and Paris. Although in my opinion the nail in the coffin came back when the two CEOs published a joint letter in the FT where they acknowledged the deal might not go through.

We've got a wave of CPI releases in the Eurozone today starting with Germany. The US jobless number is out later in the day, in addition to the US Department of Agriculture's latest WASDE report.

Eurozone CPI (06:00 GMT) Inflation indicators in the Eurozone are expected to be broadly flat for September, as price pressure continues to remain subdued on the weak economic outlook. Germany is expected to report no change in CPI, according to analysts' estimates, with the year-on-year figure expected to stay bang on 2%. Forcasters also predict that CPI in France will also remain unchanged at 2.1%. However, it is a very different story in Spain where inflation is expected to rise sharply. CPI is forecast to rise to 3.5% in September on a year-on-year basis compared to 2.7% 12 months ago. Spain's economy minister Luis de Guindos has said the recent jump is a one-off effect due to a hike in VAT implemented earlier this year.


US Jobless Claims (12:30 GMT) US jobless claims are expected to inch higher in the seven days to October 6 compared to the previous week, signalling continued weakness in the jobs market. The number of jobless claims is forecast to total 370,000 compared to 367,000 last week. Last week's fall in unemployment suggested an unexpected lift to labour markets. The Fed's latest Beige Book out yesterday said that while “employment conditions were little changed since the last report, several districts reported shortages of highly skilled workers, and that a few districts said firms were starting to increase training programs to meet their staffing needs".

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (13:30 GMT) The USDA's WASDE report due out today will reveal whether early harvests in the south of the country will ease supply constraints on crops. Adverse weather in key crop growing regions has created another difficult crop year, with record high prices seen for both corn and soybeans during the third quarter. Latest estimates from the USDA show that corn production is forecast to increase by 108 million bushels as the larger stocks begin to offset lower production. However, Ole Hansen's commodity momentum chart yesterday showed that corn prices was starting to move higher for the first time in a while as supplies continue to dwindle.

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