Article / 15 November 2012 at 5:18 GMT

3 Numbers to Watch: DE GDP, UK Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims

editor/analyst /
United States

Germany's GDP is under the microscope today while UK retail sales will take the pulse of Britain's recovery. In the US, a deferred aftershock from Hurricane Sandy is expected to drive up jobless claims.

Germany Q3 GDP (07:00 GMT) Tuesday's weak ZEW survey of economic expectations suggests that today's German third-quarter GDP report will be wobbly too. Economists agree—the consensus forecast anticipates a slowdown for Q3 to 0.1% vs. the 0.3% quarter-over-quarter gain in Q2.

Some analysts think that momentum will slow beyond Q3 before a rebound sets in. "For now, the ZEW looks broadly consistent with economic stagnation in Germany," Jennifer McKeown at Capital Economics tells Reuters. "But we think that the economy will slide back into recession next year as the peripheral debt crisis intensifies and business and consumer confidence weaken further."


Yes, recession risk is on the march again, and it threatens Germany. Relativity still counts for something, however. A sluggish expansion in Europe's biggest economy still looks good against the expected 0.2% GDP slump for the euro zone overall. German growth remains the first line of defense against deeper macro troubles, although the notion of defense is set for a downgrade. At this point no one can rule out an outright decline in Germany's GDP in the fourth quarter. Is that a high-probability risk? Today's Q3 update will provide guidance for deciding where we go from here.

UK Retail Sales (09:30 GMT) UK retail sales numbers for October aren't expected to build on September's tidy gain. Forecasters see a small retreat for the monthly comparison after September's 0.6% rise. That's enough to keep debate alive about the depth and resilience of Britain's recent escape from recession.

There's certainly a bit more uncertainty to consider after yesterday's mixed news on UK unemployment. The jobless rate dipped a bit to 7.8% for the three months through October vs. 7.9% previously, but a larger-than-expected jump in the unemployment claimant count for last month suggests that the economy remains vulnerable.

British consumption data will also be filtered through the lens of today's preceding GDP report for Germany. If the euro economy is weakening, as it seems to be, a tepid report on UK retail spending will feed worries that Europe's malaise is drifting across the English Channel. Britain may still be Europe's growth leader among big economies after Germany--or the first if Germany's GDP update disappoints?. But that won't mean much if consumers are less willing to spend because of uncertainty about the strength of the recovery.


US Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 GMT) New filings for unemployment benefits fell 8,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 355,000, or close to a four-year low. That's a robust signal that growth will roll on in the labor market. But today's weekly claims update faces the double burden of building on last week's progress and providing a convincing update that disarms complaints from some analysts that Hurricane Sandy distorted the previous release.

By that reasoning, today's claims report will provide a clearer measure of newly unemployed workers by counting those who filed a delayed claim due to the storm. The consensus forecast anticipates as much with weekly claims expected to jump sharply to nearly 380,000. But if weather-related payback is coming, that too should be temporary and so any rise may fade next week. The recently published October payrolls report is one clue for thinking optimistically: private-sector jobs growth gained the most last month since February.


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer
- 沪ICP备13028953号-1

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail