Today's edition of the Saxo Morning Call features the SaxoStrats team discussing the continuing weakness of the US dollar as commodity prices recover ground and in the wake of key US equity indices hitting all-time highs Thursday.
Article / 14 November 2012 at 7:43 GMT

3 Numbers to Watch: BoE report, US retail sales, Fed minutes

Blogger / MoreLiver's Daily

Wednesday has room to be the week’s unofficial surprise day, with the Bank of England (BoE) releasing its quarterly inflation report, US October Retail Sales and the Federal Reserve's minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on October 23-24.

UK Bank of England Inflation Report (10:30 GMT) has the potential to be the biggest market mover today. The report includes the economic analysis and inflation outlook for the next two years that are used by the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee to set monetary policy. The report is published quarterly, and given the amount of quantitative easing (QE), zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP), the Olympic-boosted GDP numbers and the latest news that according to the BoE’s own estimates, QE effectiveness has been wearing quite thin as of late, there is plenty of uncertainty on the future monetary policy. Governor King will speak immediately after the report's release. See the BoE’s website for the Inflation Report and Governor King’s Speech.

US October Retail Sales (13:30 GMT) headline figure is expected to be around -0.1-0.2 percent (prev. +1.1%) and the core excluding autos and gas to show an increase of +0.3 percent (prev +0.9%). As the October numbers are affected by the hurricane Sandy, it is disputed how much value the numbers will have.

US FED FOMC Oct 23-24 Minutes (19:00 GMT) will probably have no big surprises, as the policy of “QE to infinity” is in my opinion well-defined as it is. Given the market’s recent low risk appetite and nervousness regarding Europe, any signs that the dissenting voices are hushed and in minority, and Evans' rule is not even near could be interpreted as positives. Given the European uncertainties and Sandy, I expect dovish voices have set the tone of the meeting.

3 Numbers to Watch is published Monday-Friday on  You can choose to be notified whenever a new piece is ready if you become a TradingFloor member - it's free, and you can sign in with Twitter, Facebook, Google or LinkedIn.  You can also follow all the news from our macro team on our Macro Page.

tony1 tony1
do you think the BoEs IR will shake up the cable
Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
Yes - there was far too much "recession is over"-thinking after the latest round of GDP numbers, and as the rot has spread to the core EZ countries, it was hardly a surprise that outlook was kept negative. Perhaps markets were thinking too much ahead and discounting a possible ending to QE and ZIRP in UK. BoE certainly moved those expectations further down the road.

I generally believe many markets (US has discoupled! UK's recession is over! Europe is solved!) have recently gotten ahead of themselves. Other thing to watch is EURUSD - given the EUR negative headlines the pair has been very resilient.

As usual - never watch the numbers as they are - and don't even watch the numbers against the expectations. Just watch how the market reacts to differences between expected and realized. Sry about the late reply. I was afk but generally intend to answer questions after my pieces.


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail