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  • Squawk / Friday at 21:14 GMT
    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    President Trump’s inauguration speech saw the USD decline, whilst Bonds
    held steady. My Updated US Stockmarket Analysis below – Still Bullish.

    The Trump rally from election day to inauguration was 6% (refer below).
    The greatest rally came in the lead up to the inauguration of Herbert Hoover
    in 1929 (that didn’t turn out to well in the end!)

    Earlier on the White House web site announced a target of 4% annual GDP growth, double its non-inflationary potential, so only attainable with the sugar pill of substantial fiscal stimulus. This would put Trump on a collision course with Fed Chair Yellen who noted in a speech yesterday that fiscal policy could affect “the appropriate policy path”. More background on that here https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/inflation-update-puts-yellen-on-collision-course-with-trump-8401544

    Neither protagonist wants a higher USD, yet both are setting out on a path to achieve it
    Read the Squawk
    17h
    seas seas
    I predict a monster decline in asset values, including the stock market and the dollar.
    17h
    seas seas
    So I am selling calls on just about everything. Wish me luck!
    14h
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    Possibly correct Jim. But under your scenario of higher debt and inflation expectations, US bond yields would surely rise at a time when the ECB and BOJ...
  • Calendar event / Friday at 13:30 GMT

    CA CPI

    forecast
    actual
    Med All Items CPI, M/M%
    -0.2%
    Med All Items CPI, Y/Y%
    +1.7%
    +1.5%
    Med CPI-Median, Y/Y%
    +2%
    Med CPI-Common, Y/Y%
    +1.4%
    Med CPI-Trim, Y/Y%
    +1.6%
  • 2d
    fxtime fxtime
    Great piece Stephen :-)
    The thought of Trump even reading Adam Smith made me LOL.
    2d
    C.A.L. gr C.A.L. gr
    Excellent article! Unfortunately the voices of sanity and reason seem to be out of favor, for the time being at least. Brexit, Trump and at a smaller...
    2d
    Krunil48 Krunil48
    I got the impression that Junker of the EU appears to have softened his tone since Theresa May's speech. For too long it has been the EU...
  • 2d
    fxtime fxtime
    I see Mike also has a comparison article for Trump this time JFK being the younger newbie replacing older eisenhower to the current older replacing 55yr Obama....interesting...
    19h
    hulle hulle
    It sure looks like Trump is following in Nixons footsteps. This will take the USD down and gold up! Not yet but in due time.The 2008 crisis...
  • 2d
    Market Predator Market Predator
    The lady from APAC team has very kind voice ♥♥
    2d
    John J Hardy John J Hardy
    The Trump inauguration time window is 1130-1230 EST in USA, which is 1630-1730 GMT and 1730-1830 CET
  • 2d
    thewickedwiz thewickedwiz
    The problem here is that Obama was opposed at every turn by the Republicans!
    So any failures are due to the Republicans but this is not recognised widely.
    Trump...
  • Squawk / Thursday at 16:19 GMT
    Blogger / MoreLiver's Daily
    Finland
    Bond yields, stocks and USDJPY have recently moved hand-in-hand. Bond yields and USDJPY have now rise for two days while stocks have remained unchanged. I guess stocks could join the party after "Trump event risk" is over.
    Read the Squawk
    2d
    fxtime fxtime
    If his history of narcissism is anything to go by we can expect a sugar sweet speech promising everything to everyone plus ofcourse he alone will unite...
    2d
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    My main reason for thinking that the Trump-rally (or whatever you want to call it, high PMI- or higher bond yield-rally) has more to go is because...