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  • Article / 22 September 2016 at 1:15 GMT

    Stubborn NZDUSD fails to take RBNZ hint again

    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    Stubborn NZDUSD fails to take RBNZ hint again
    If the RBNZ is serious about triggering a fall in NZDUSD, today’s monetary policy statement was a wasted opportunity. The market brushed off guidance that “ a decline in the exchange rate is needed”. Action, not words, is required and that’s not likely now until the bank’s next review on November 10.
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    22 September
    Patto Patto
    Nice work. What's your call on AUDNZD now ?
    22 September
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    thanks. Recovery potential and Buying this latest reaction
    6d
    FxCox FxCox
    Why?
  • 16 September
    Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
    Thanks, I'm glad you find it useful
    17 September
    AndrejLences AndrejLences
    Michael thank you for the article. What do you think is the lowest WTI oil can next 2 weeks go ? 39 seems as the new...
    19 September
    Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
    Hi AndrejLences, Sorry for the late reply. I think that oil may be supported ahead of the Algiers meeting on j kind of rumours that we got...
  • Calendar event / 14 September 2016 at 22:45 GMT

    NZ GDP

    forecast
    actual
    Med 12-Mos to Qtr, Y/Y%
    +2.8%
    +2.8%
    Med GDP-SA, Q/Q%
    +1.1%
    +0.9%
    Med GDP, Y/Y%
    +3.6%
    +3.6%
  • Article / 14 September 2016 at 0:37 GMT

    Risk-off sentiment hits Kiwi and Aussie despite the data

    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    Risk-off sentiment hits Kiwi and Aussie despite the data
    When traders get spooked - as they have been in the past few days - they move back into the USD, even if this comes at the expense of commodity currencies. Not that the New Zealand's central bank minds - to foster inflation, the RBNZ can do little but cut its policy rate and hope the Kiwi dollar falls in sympathy.
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  • Article / 30 August 2016 at 23:32 GMT

    Parity party coming up for AUDNZD

    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    Parity party coming up for AUDNZD
    Market pricing suggests the RBNZ is likely to cut the policy rate to 1.75% in November, with an even chance its Australian counterpart will cut to 1.25%. In a yield starved world that will not take the pressure off either currency. But with dairy prices rising strongly while iron ore appears to be topping out, there seems to be a trading opportunity to sell AUDNZD with parity as a target.
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  • Article / 24 August 2016 at 0:02 GMT

    Little to arrest Aussie's upwards trajectory

    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    Little to arrest Aussie's upwards trajectory
    The odds are increasing that one G10 country will break ranks and abandon inflation-targeting and with a new Reserve Bank governor about to be sworn in, Australia has a chance to lead the way. But will it have the nerve?
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  • Article / 18 August 2016 at 1:31 GMT

    Money market imbalances should provide support for USD

    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    Money market imbalances should provide support for USD
    A shortage of US dollars is reducing the attractiveness of the US bond market for offshore investors, making it more vulnerable if the Fed was to resume raising rates. The markets have priced the odds of a rate move by the end of the year at 50%. But with a shortage of dollars in the money markets, any decline in the USD in the meantime should find keen support.
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    23 August
    lahla lahla
    Hello. Thanks for the great analysis, article. I really got lost when You explained the dynamics of hedging the positions. Firstly You said....to avoid a DECLINE in...
    23 August
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    If a Japan-based investor buys US Treasury bonds without hedging the currency risk he wants JPY to decline against the USD i.e. for USDJPY to rise. So,...
    24 August
    lahla lahla
    Thank You very much. You are incredible valuable to this community.