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  • Article / 23 February 2016 at 5:59 GMT

    3 Numbers: German business sentiment on the decline

    editor/analyst /
    United States
    3 Numbers: German business sentiment on the decline
    Last week’s ZEW data revealed that financial analysts have put a dampener on macro expectations for Europe's biggest market, while in the US consumer confidence remains positive – if a little brittle. Meanwhile today's report on US existing homes sales will reveal if December’s bounce was real or just a flash in the pan
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  • Squawk / 29 October 2015 at 9:13 GMT
    German labour market rebounds in October:

    Following a slight deterioration in the number of unemployed Germans in September (+2,000), the labour market rebounded this month with a decline of 5,000. This was close to the consensus expectations of -4,000 and implies an unchanged unemployment rate of 6.4% - as expected. Having said that there is no doubt that the improvements in unemployment have slowed in 2H'15 as the German economy faced (mainly) external headwinds.

    A look at employment paints a brighter picture with a gain of 50,000 in September, taking the Q3 average monthly gain to 44,000 and employment is now up 152,000 for the year so far.

    To reiterate what I said earlier this week when IFO was released, Germany is doing just fine!
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  • Article / 26 October 2015 at 10:20 GMT

    German economy shakes off the scandals

    German economy shakes off the scandals
    German headlines may reflect a Volkswagen-fueled unease in the automotive sector and a growing political battle concerning chancellor Merkel's stance on migrants, but the latest IFO print shows that the Eurozone's largest economy is doing just fine.
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  • Squawk / 24 June 2015 at 8:11 GMT
    German IFO slips to four-month low in June:

    German companies are on average less bullish about the outlook for the economy than in previous four months, according to the IFO institute. The headline business climate index declined to 107.4 this month from 108.5 in May while analysts had looked for a smaller drop to 108.1.

    The 1.1-point decline in the business climate index was driven by pretty equally by the two sub-indices. The current assessment index fell to 113.1 from 114.3 (114.1 expected) while the forward-looking expectations index slipped 1 point to 102 (vs. 102.4 expected). In other words, while analysts did correctly predict a weaker IFO report for June, the weakness was somewhat more pronounced than expected. Having said that, a reading of 102 in the expectations index still corresponds to GDP growth two quarters out (i.e. in Q4) of 1.8% y/y vs. 1% realised in Q1.

    The DAX30 index is unchanged for the day at the moment, but down 0.4% from the (current) intra-day high.
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  • Article / 29 May 2015 at 5:08 GMT

    3 Numbers: Germany's retail bounceback, EZ money, US GDP estimate

    Blogger / MoreLiver's Daily
    3 Numbers: Germany's retail bounceback, EZ money, US GDP estimate
    Today's data releases might not be big-ticket items, but they have the potential to confirm a story that everyone has been happy with recently - that the European economy is slowly crawling out of a pit. German retail sales are likely to be up while Europe's bank lending finally shows a positive annual change. The first quarter in US is expected to be revised much lower - but it is now behind us.
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    JulieDeiy JulieDeiy
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  • Squawk / 23 February 2015 at 9:06 GMT
    German IFO flat in February, misses expectations:

    The German economy expanded at an unchanged pace in February, according to the IFO. The headline business climate index inched up 0.1 of a point to 106.8, less than the 107.7 expected by consensus, but nevertheless the highest reading in seven months.

    Among the sub-indices, the forward-looking expectations index rose half a point to 102.5 from 102, but less than the 103 expected. The (less important) current assessment index declined to 111.3 from 111.7 prior and 112.5 expected.

    Overall, a fairly uneventful report. I maintain my outlook that Germany will grow at a moderate pace of 1.5% this year - with some upside risk due to oil and currency weakness.
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  • Squawk / 27 October 2014 at 9:35 GMT
    German IFO declines yet again in October:

    The IFO's business climate index continued to move lower in October signaling weaker growth in Germany. The index fell to 103.2 this month from 104.7 a month ago and 104.5 expected. The continued decline is particularly interesting considering the uptick in PMI manufacturing. The latter typically leads when the two series diverge.

    The sub-indices both disappointed with the forward-looking Expectations index falling to 98.3 vs. 99.2 expected and 99.3 prior. This is the lowest reading since December 2012. The other sub-index, the Current Assessment index, touched 108.4 in October vs. 110 expected and 110.4 prior, an 18-month low.

    The is no denying that the German economy slowed during the summer months, but I don't agree that the German economy is fundamentally unsound. Hence I maintain that growth will return in this final quarter of 2014.

    The Q3 GDP report will released on November 14.
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