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  • Squawk / 23 February 2015 at 9:06 GMT
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    German IFO flat in February, misses expectations:

    The German economy expanded at an unchanged pace in February, according to the IFO. The headline business climate index inched up 0.1 of a point to 106.8, less than the 107.7 expected by consensus, but nevertheless the highest reading in seven months.

    Among the sub-indices, the forward-looking expectations index rose half a point to 102.5 from 102, but less than the 103 expected. The (less important) current assessment index declined to 111.3 from 111.7 prior and 112.5 expected.

    Overall, a fairly uneventful report. I maintain my outlook that Germany will grow at a moderate pace of 1.5% this year - with some upside risk due to oil and currency weakness.
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  • Squawk / 27 October 2014 at 9:35 GMT
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    German IFO declines yet again in October:

    The IFO's business climate index continued to move lower in October signaling weaker growth in Germany. The index fell to 103.2 this month from 104.7 a month ago and 104.5 expected. The continued decline is particularly interesting considering the uptick in PMI manufacturing. The latter typically leads when the two series diverge.

    The sub-indices both disappointed with the forward-looking Expectations index falling to 98.3 vs. 99.2 expected and 99.3 prior. This is the lowest reading since December 2012. The other sub-index, the Current Assessment index, touched 108.4 in October vs. 110 expected and 110.4 prior, an 18-month low.

    The is no denying that the German economy slowed during the summer months, but I don't agree that the German economy is fundamentally unsound. Hence I maintain that growth will return in this final quarter of 2014.

    The Q3 GDP report will released on November 14.
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  • 31 July
    Schneekonig Schneekonig
    Let us stop here and think for two minutes - The German Mittelstand is being squeezed by big companies (reduction of costs) like Siemens; leading to a...
    31 July
    Steen Jakobsen Steen Jakobsen
    very interesting - thank you for comments
    01 August
    kang64 kang64
    This comment has been redacted
  • Squawk / 24 April 2014 at 8:03 GMT
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    German IFO better than expected in April. The business climate index climbed to 111.2 from 110.7 last month while consensus had expected 110.4.
    The current assessment index was mostly unchanged at 115.3 from 115.2 and 115.6 expected, so the improvement in the headline index came from the expectations index, which rose to 107.3 from 106.4. Consensus had predicted a drop to 105.8.
    Overall a solid report made even better by the fact that it is the expectations index, which is the main driver.
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    24 April
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    The pickup in expectations is particularly nice, as the construction sector's expectations are going through a negative seasonal patch. Here's the link to the press release: https://www.cesifo-group.de/ifoHome/facts/Survey-Results/Business-Climate/Geschaeftsklima-Archiv/2014/Geschaeftsklima-20140424.html...
  • Squawk / 18 December 2013 at 9:02 GMT
    Head of Equity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Minor reaction in the DAX index following IFO figures for December. The index is up 0.6 percent.
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  • Saxo TV / 25 October 2013 at 8:05 GMT

    Euro's charge is an "anti-dollar play"

    Neil Staines
    The euro is trading at a 2-year high against the dollar , expectations of taper delay offsetting poor German business confidence. Neil Staines says the euro will probably stay firm over the next few months given the backdrop of dollar weakness.
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  • Saxo TV / 25 July 2013 at 10:38 GMT

    Hardy: Value to be found in the pound

    John J Hardy
    The UK economy grew 0.6 percent in the second quarter, in line with estimates. After gaining as much as 0.5 percent ahead of the report, GBPUSD pared back some of its gains. Saxo Bank's John Hardy says there are a number of trading opportunities.
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