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  • Squawk / Monday at 7:53 GMT
    Founder, Owner, Director / Market Chartist
    United Kingdom
    Dollar Bulls must be patient, Selling pressure will be overcomeby Stephen Pope

    Selling of the U.S. Dollar Index on Friday may persist through Monday
    As the week pushes on, this will yield to new buying momentum
    The technical sentiment for the Dollar Index is strong up to the next FOMC
    New bullish sentiment will prevail and will take prices higher

    See the full article here: https://www.fxexplained.co.uk/forex-articles/fundamental-and-macroeconomic-analysis/dollar-bulls-must-be-patient-swelling-pressure-will-be-overcome/
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  • Squawk / 09 November 2018 at 7:02 GMT
    Founder, Owner, Director / Market Chartist
    United Kingdom
    EURUSD sets up bearish threat
    A firm US Dollar rebound has been seen over the past 24 hours since the FOMC rate decision and statement, with markets reacting to an expectation of another rate hike in December and likely three more in 2019.
    This was highlighted in the Fed statement by the view of a “strong rate” of overall economic activity, which has been received as a still hawkish view, despite the backdrop of a global equity market selloff on October, ongoing Trade War concerns and the potential for an increase in US political instability since the midterm elections.
    A notable casualty with the renewal of short-term US Dollar strength has been EURUSD, which plunged back lower to the bottom end of the more recent and broader range environments.
    Critical support to monitor for EURUSD remains the dual lows for 2018 at 1.1300, through which could see a far more bearish tone.

    See article: https://www.fxexplained.co.uk/forex-articles/current-market-analysis/eurusd-sets-up-bearish-threat/
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  • Squawk / 15 October 2018 at 5:12 GMT
    Founder, Owner, Director / Market Chartist
    United Kingdom
    GBPUSD: Two Curious Currencies by Stephen Pope

    U.S. equity declines have tripped the Dollar
    Last time the market had such loses was when the UK voted to leave the EU
    Who has the control over the economy, Chairman Powell or President Trump?
    There is a small matter of Brexit negotiations, they should put Sterling on the backfoot

    See the full article here: https://www.fxexplained.co.uk/forex-articles/technical-analysis/gbpusd-two-curious-currencies/
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  • Squawk / 04 October 2018 at 8:23 GMT
    Founder, Owner, Director / Market Chartist
    United Kingdom
    US Treasury selloff leaves equities vulnerable and risks to key S&P 500 support

    A plunge in prices across US Treasuries over the past 24 hours to reinforce higher yield moves across the UST yield curve seen since September, in reaction to a more hawkish tone from Jerome Powell.
    This points to still higher yields in the short-term.
    Furthermore, this price action has put some negative pressure on US equity markets.
    The S&P 500 future is probing a key up trend line from the summer, below which could see a more negative technical picture.

    See the full article here: https://www.fxexplained.co.uk/forex-articles/current-market-analysis/us-treasury-selloff-leaves-equities-vulnerable-and-risks-to-key-sp-500-support/
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  • Squawk / 26 September 2018 at 7:08 GMT
    Founder, Owner, Director / Market Chartist
    United Kingdom
    The Fed the key focus today with rate hike priced in

    Today, Wednesday 26th September will see the financial markets focus firmly on the Fed and the FOMC Meeting, which is expected from market pricing to deliver another interest rate increase.
    Critical to focus on will be the statement and the press conference. Is the labour market too tight, is the flattening on the US Treasury yield curve a concern, are growing trade war tensions a significant concern?? These are all questions to which the market will seek answers.
    Key markets to watch into the event will be the US Treasury Notes which for now is bearish (here we focus on the US 10yr Future) and the broad, benchmark equity average, the S&P 500, which currently stays bullish (here we look at the S&P 500 E-mini future).

    See the full article here: https://www.fxexplained.co.uk/forex-articles/current-market-analysis/the-fed-the-key-focus-today-with-rate-hike-priced-in/
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  • Squawk / 24 August 2018 at 14:06 GMT
    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Jackson Hole speech by Fed's Powell. The initial focus seems to be on Powell's comment that there no signs of inflation pickup accelerating now that it has risen above 2% and there are no signs of overheating. The kneejerk reaction here is to sell the USD as EM and risk appetite celebrate this as non-hawkish.

    Link to text of speech: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20180824a.htm
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    24 August
    John J Hardy John J Hardy
    Market has put the Goldilocks scenario back in the microwave and is reheating on Turbo setting. I am a bit reluctant to believe we will see this...
    25 August
    MyTrade MyTrade
    The questions I’m always asking sellside salespeople is:

    I don’t want to know what your analysts like.

    Tell me what your clients hate.

    What are the sectors that are...
  • Squawk / 01 August 2018 at 18:11 GMT
    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    FOMC Statement: about as unchanged as it can get, with no tweaks to the statement worth real attention - perhaps the only slightly noteworthy change being the upgrading of the description of economic activity now being described as rising at a "strong" rather than "solid" rate, now doubt due to that 4.1% GDP print for Q2. Fairly muted reaction, with USDJPY a bit lower, most likely due to JPY considerations as the USD action is very muted. For some reason, rate expectations out 18 months are off about a basis point - was the market really looking for anything here?
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    01 August
    Logich Logich
    By failing to change anything in the statement, the FED also send a signal to the Trump / The White House that the Fed can not be...
    01 August
    fxtime fxtime
    The Fed by doing nothing at all makes an implicit acknowledgement of Trump wishes IMHO....you have to ask how strong monthly data has to be before Fed...
    01 August
    fxtime fxtime
    typo....kicking the can down the proverbial road for another month. Not sure how I managed to get the above wrong there LOL.
  • Squawk / 13 June 2018 at 18:04 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Key takeaways from FOMC decision (via Bloomberg):
    Fed raises rates as expected, 8-0 vote
    In the latest dots, the rate hike path steepens a little this year, still aiming at 3.4% end-2020; longer-run neutral rate still seen at 2.9%
    FOMC statement says economy growing at ``solid rate,'' job gains have been ``strong,'' consumer spending has picked up and investment continued to grow ``strongly''
    Language about the economy upgraded, line about rates remaining below long-run levels ``for some time'' was removed
    The sentence got tweaked: ``The Committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term.''
    IOER rate raised 20bps to 1.95% as of June 14; discount rate goes up to 2.5%
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    15 June
    Jadira F. Norton Jadira F. Norton
    Amazing news Ole:: 😄
  • Article / 13 June 2018 at 8:18 GMT

    FX Update: USD leans stronger into pivotal FOMC

    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    FX Update:  USD leans stronger into pivotal FOMC
    The Powell Fed is set to make a number of adjustments as portions of the monetary statement that have been long recycled are due for a refresh and the governor could also indicate, in an effort to achieve more flexibility, that he would like to hold a press conference at every meeting.
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  • Article / 11 June 2018 at 8:09 GMT

    FX Update: EURUSD rising into this week’s FOMC and ECB meets

    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    FX Update: EURUSD rising into this week’s FOMC and ECB meets
    US President Trump shreds the rulebook at the G7 summit and jets to Singapore for the first ever summit with North Korea’s leader. Focus this week on a likely important guidance shift from both the Fed and the ECB. Elsewhere, sterling has the heaviest economic data calendar and faces pivotal Brexit bill votes in parliament.
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