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  • Squawk / Wednesday at 18:12 GMT
    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    FOMC Minutes : reveal a robust discussion of how the Fed will roll out a reduction of its balance sheet, with "almost all" FOMC voters arguing in favour of a 2017 start to quantitative tightening (QT) via "roll-off caps". The minutes mention that an unemployment at or below 4.5% is below the Fed's long run level and suggest that some believe that recent lower inflation is due to transitory factors while others expressed concern on the inflation front. This and the other language is not enough to excite interest in upgrading the Fed's rate hike path as STIR futures rally a basis point or two in immediate reaction and the USD weakens slightly.

    Some might argue that the FOMC minutes are from a meeting that came before all of the recent political noise that has so distracted markets, so the potential impact of the QT discussion may be somewhat reduced until the Fed updates its views at the mid-June FOMC meeting. But let's be wary of believing in the market's initial reaction.
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    1d
    AIRLINE AIRLINE
    Agree Fashionapolis, and I did also not see any words from Janet Yellen or the other members at Fed for their willingness to be locked up for...
    1d
    Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
    my guess is they will hike 1 or 2 more to 1.25% or 1.5% then talk about balance sheet trimming towards end of the year in Q4....
    1d
    Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
    i believe they will hike to 1.5%, take a pause and then focus on balance sheet trimming for next year
  • Article / 18 May 2017 at 1:08 GMT

    US 10-year bond calls the shots on EURUSD and USDJPY

    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    US 10-year bond calls the shots on EURUSD and USDJPY
    The 10-year US Treasury bond has become the prime mover behind EURUSD and USDJPY. In turn, the bond market is taking its cue from expectations of Federal Reserve policy rate moves. In this article, a simple method of calculating the probability of such moves is shown.
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    18 May
    Patto Patto
    Good work Max, I'm sure many traders are confused about these "rate hike probability" headlines we see in the media (especially when they say it is "100%")....
    4d
    MHoneygram MHoneygram
    Nice homework :-)
    4d
    MHoneygram MHoneygram
    CME Group figure
  • 09 May
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Gold weakens further into the US trading session. The main drivers remain weaker JPY and rising US yields
    18 May
    vyacheslav111 vyacheslav111
    Hi! Your opinion on XAU/USD now ?
  • Article / 05 May 2017 at 12:00 GMT

    A step to the bright side

    Head of Trading / The ECU Group plc
    United Kingdom
    A step to the bright side
    The global economy is showing some incremental positive developments, from a more hawkish Fed, lower oil prices that could dampen inflation expectations, to reduced French political uncertainty and favourable UK economic momentum.
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