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John J Hardy
It's been a mixed week especially for dollar and yen, says Saxo Bank head of FX strategy John Hardy. The markets big focus right now is on the Trump administration policy and less on the Federal Reserve.


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  • Squawk / Friday at 21:19 GMT
    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    Quiet trading Friday in the US ahead of a long weekend (markets closed Monday for President’s day)

    The S&P 500 made a small gain, USD index rose (mainly because of a weak EUR); bond yields were down a touch.

    Note in the chart below that the USD index is not reacting to the rising prob. of a March 15 rate hike. Since 1994 the Fed has never moved unless market pricing in the lead up was at least 75%. Today March is priced at only 40%. Even June is marginal.

    But plenty of Fed speakers next week with a chance to “guide” the market.

    Meanwhile Pres.Trump is promising more “tremendous” announcements.

    The second chart shows the US fed funds curve in a global context. Only the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is priced to follow a similar track to higher rates.
    Read the Squawk
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    Full FX Forecasts of all Majors and Australasians with complete Chart Analysis will be sent out as usual tomorrow morning
    Jim Earls Jim Earls
    I would argue that the PE in the 40's during 2000 was an aberration due to a 1st stage bubble of three being focused into only...
    seas seas
    I would tend to agree with that. There are new efficiencies and economies of scale to take into account though.
  • 2d
    seas seas
    Ditto on that.
    Hisham Boulos Hisham Boulos
    Totally agree the media like mad dogs against Trump while I guess his doing a better job than Obama looking after his people and country ..
    Stephen Pope Stephen Pope
    A well written executive summary.
    Puts the gyrations firmly in context.
  • Squawk / Friday at 13:42 GMT
    Hypothesis Testing
    United Kingdom
    A quick note for you ....the skewed bolly trade although made as a filter on existing signals is imho very useful at 5pm GMT on DXY as suggests a bias to markets for the following globex period then at 7am re-assign the bias. Thus strong dollar signal above first close etc as described in the article means eurusd/cable short and usdcad long etc etc you get the idea. The dxy merely permits an average weighted trade scenario in a single direction for the $ itself hence the above trade suggestions. Obviously reverse everything above for a bear close value. You get the idea and can backtest on that.
    Read the Squawk
    zefy zefy
    Thanks. I will add and check tests. I like this kind of scenarios which run on globex with regular re-assign of bias.
    fxtime fxtime
    I like them as it re-optimises as you say but daily revenue streams are always my underlying ideal.
    zefy zefy
    Of course.
  • Trade view / Friday at 13:30 GMT
    Short term

    S&P 500 iron condor trade — #SaxoStrats

    Product Manager Futures and Options / Saxo Bank
    The S&P500 equity index has risen sharply this month and could be due for a short-term pullback or at least consolidation. Low levels of volatility on the index offers an opportunity for adopting an iron condor income strategy.
    Read the Trade View
  • 2d
    Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
    looking good
    fxtime fxtime
    It is funny how often these Llamas appear LOL....chart is DAX
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