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Dan Larsen
Saxo Bank’s Head of FX Options Dan Juhl-Larsen shares his insights and experience trading FX options. In this edition, he looks at both market psychology and market developments.


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  • Squawk / 1 hour ago
    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    FOMC initial read is hawkish, according to reaction in interest rates, as the March Fed funds future dips several basis points from levels earlier today in response to the combination of the new statement and the accompanying materials. Comments to follow attached to this squawk below.
    Read the Squawk
    John J Hardy John J Hardy
    I still like GBP, but relative strength versus USD will be more difficult if USD rallying - EURGBP could be more interesting for expressing GBP strength.
    Urum Urum
    Agreed on the last point, John. There is the Brexit negotiations risk with GBP pairs, however, so everyone should keep that in mind I think.
    usxau usxau
    Having PM May up tomorrow might give some more direction on the pound and the renegade Johnsons' future!
  • Squawk / 3 hours ago
    Hypothesis Testing
    United Kingdom
    Update using cash market pricing and seeking spread reduction.
    Article attached fwiw;

    Shorting Nas and Long SP500 seems daft but defensively before market events such as FOMC can be useful when the spreads are as suggested wide.

    QQQ does lead markets just look at the classic FAANG stock listings whilst they are not all QQQ we can certainly see technology ''churn'' as accountants would describe it.
    Read the Squawk
  • 2h
    Georgio Stoev Georgio Stoev
    Great article Gary!
  • Squawk / 6 hours ago
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    An unseasonal rally driven by unseasonably high refinery margins in response to falling fuel stocks. That's what we are currently witnessing in the oil market. Hence the increased focus on today's inventory report from the EIA at 1430 GMT. Not least after the API yesterday surprised with a smaller-than-expected crude oil build while fuel stocks slumped by more than expected.
    If the slump in Gasoline and distillate stocks are repeated by the EIA we could see stock levels on both fall below the five-year average.
    The price of oil is likely to remain supported as long refinery margins remain elevated. Overall its our belief that we are getting close to the upper end of what can be expected at this stage. Brent will be facing stiff resistance towards 57.50/b while WTI after several failed attempts may have a go above the July high at $50.50/b.
    I will post updates below once the report is out
    Read the Squawk
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Crude oil stocks rose while fuel stocks dropped by more than expected. Both import and export of crude oil continued to recover while refinery demand rose by...
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
  • Article / 10 hours ago

    Weekly Bond Report: How to break the QE habit?

    Manager, Global Sales Trading / Saxo Bank
    Weekly Bond Report: How to break the QE habit?
    If the Fed is clear about how it plans to wind down its balance sheet, Treasury yields will not be severely impacted as the market will quickly adjust to sustain increased supply. But there are concerns about upward pressure on yields given the US' economic recovery.
    Read the article
  • Article / 10 hours ago

    FX Update: FOMC rate guidance in focus as QT era begins

    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    FX Update: FOMC rate guidance in focus as QT era begins
    The Fed will take the notable step of announcing the start of unwinding its enormous balance sheet at today’s meeting, though this has been thoroughly flagged in advance. The bigger question for the market is the degree to which the Fed climbs down from its rate forecasts for a December hike and the hiking path for next year and beyond.
    Read the article
  • 11h
    alki alki
    Good morning everyone... even if almost lunch time here (lol)...
    Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
    morning alki .. good luck today
  • Trade view / 11 hours ago
    Short term

    Protecting gold downside risks post FOMC – #SaxoStrats

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Following its latest weakness gold has stabilised ahead of today's FOMC meeting. Although a hawkish tilt is not expected the combination of a large speculative long and a major technical level just below carries the risk that a surprise announcement could send it lower by more than what would otherwise be warranted.
    Read the Trade View
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