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  • Editor’s Picks / 31 December 2014 at 12:06 GMT

    Let the scaremongering over Greece begin

    The scaremongerers will be out in force over Greece over the course of the next few weeks in the run-up to the election and they have every right to be so, says Mark Gilbert. With the Greek banking system down by nearly a third since its peak, a fall of approximately $200 billion, it can ill afford a new run on banking deposits. And, says Gilbert, if Brussels decides to play hardball with Greece in 2015, the impact on the euro if Greece starts looking for the exit will be enormous.
    Read article on Bloomberg
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    02 January
    donovan80 donovan80
    This comment has been redacted
  • Editor’s Picks / 15 December 2014 at 23:24 GMT

    China’s Treasury holdings at lowest since February 2013

    China’s holdings of US Treasuries fell to a 20-month low in October, as yuan appreciation indicated less of an impetus to buy the government securities. China held $1.25 trillion in US debt as of October, a $13.6 billion drop from September. The nation remains the largest foreign holder, ahead of Japan, whose stockpile increased $0.6 billion to $1.22 trillion, reducing the gap between the two countries to the narrowest since September 2012.

    The yuan rose 0.4 percent against the dollar in October as the government moves toward a market-determined exchange rate, part of efforts to expand the currency’s use worldwide. The less China intervenes to weaken its currency, the less it needs to buy securities such as Treasuries.
    Read article on Bloomberg
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  • Editor’s Picks / 20 November 2014 at 22:25 GMT

    Relax, the Eurozone is not Japan

    Business Spectator
    Pessimists worry that slow growth and signs of disinflation mean that the Eurozone is heading towards a Japan-style lost decade. But Europe is not Japan. Total Japanese debt (private and public) was about 460% of GDP in 2012. It could be 480% now. In contrast, Europe has a debt position of only 178% of GDP – for total public and private debt. While Europe can afford to pay off its debt. Japan has no hope of ever doing so, given its shrinking economy and shrinking population. Of all Eurozone countries, only tiny Greece has any genuine issues over solvency. Yet somehow that has created panic over the viability of the EU itself.
    Read article on Business Spectator
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  • Article / 12 November 2014 at 14:38 GMT

    Dear ECB...get your act together on bond buying

    Managing Partner / Spotlight Ideas
    United Kingdom
    Dear ECB...get your act together on bond buying
    You could argue that with the structure of Eurozone sovereign yields already so low that the game of yield limbo has almost run its course. In which case, it's tempting to ask what good will sovereign bond buying by the ECB do? However, with the risk of “lowflation” or even deflation omnipresent, it is surely worth trying. But getting the ECB to agree on anything is another matter.
    Read the article
    12 November
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    An interesting answer to the moral hazard dilemma.On the other hand, wouldn't this create another set of "two equilibrium points" for the financial markets - countries that...
    12 November
    fxtime fxtime
    Great debate guys :-)
    12 November
    LeTaulier_Lmi LeTaulier_Lmi
    The yields of Eurozone Sovereign debts should be seen in the light of the economic growth of every country.
    For instance, 2.57% for Italy when the...
  • Article / 10 November 2014 at 2:39 GMT

    Greek mythology extends to bailout

    Managing Partner / Spotlight Ideas
    United Kingdom
    The government of troubled Eurozone member Greece is claiming it will steer the country out of the bailout a year early. But this statement is ridiculous if the first thing the EU will have to do is to grant Greece new financing - and this is exactly what is going to happen. The only sensible option is for Greece to extend the current bailout up to 18 months. This would allow Greece more time to meet the criteria for the release of the last EUR 1.8 billion tranche of the existing program, which will be lost unless it is disbursed before the end of the year.
    Read the article
  • Trade view / 04 November 2014 at 22:21 GMT
    Medium term

    Get out of Spain and Italy and into German core

    Managing Partner / Spotlight Ideas
    United Kingdom
    The European Commission has downgraded Eurozone growth and says it will do all it can to promote growth and jobs. Spain has reforms in place but is ignoring bureaucracy and its unemployment remains high. Meanwhile, Italy talks tough, and not only ignores the black economy, it and wants to spend more.
    Read the Trade View
  • Article / 07 October 2014 at 9:05 GMT

    Our essential trades for Q4: Mount doom

    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    The flipside of quantitative easing has been the mountain of debt that the globe has accumulated over the last few years. As productivity declines and policymakers adopt a fingers-crossed strategy, we can’t ignore this one any longer.
    Read the article
  • Saxo TV / 24 September 2014 at 12:23 GMT

    Loong: China's targeted approach is not working

    Pauline Loong
    Pauline Loong, Director of assesses the latest efforts of the Chinese government to kick-start the property market. Mortgage lenders are being urged to allow buyers who've paid off a mortgage to be considered as first-time buyers again. Pauline looks at the so-called 'mini' stimulus packages launched by the Chinese leadership so far this year and explains why she thinks "the government's targeted approach is not working".
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