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  • Editor’s Picks / 16 July 2015 at 16:22 GMT

    Is it Versailles 1919 all over again? No — it's worse

    The Telegraph
    There is not the slightest chance that Greece will be able to stabilise its debt and return to viability, writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, in a deal that bears all the hallmarks of the "vindictive and narrow minded" treaty imposed on Germany and its allies at Versailles at the end of WW1 in so many ways except one — it's worse. The Versaille Treaty was terribly harsh but potentially doable while Greece is being asked to achieve the "scientifically impossible". The dysfunctional nature of EMU politics has led to the perpetuation of a lie that will keep Greece in a permanent state of crisis and only Wolfgang Schauble can come out of this sorry saga with any credit after his offer of a velvet divorce and an orderly exit from the euro for Greece for five years. Athens should have run with this but the notion terrified Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras and Angela Merkel used that leverage to ensure the sanctity of the Eurozone was maintained. Tsipras had his chance — he missed it.
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    16 July
    TLtrader TLtrader
    Should Greece have no chances to recover, with the euro currency, creditors must be willing to forgive at least 50 percent of their receivables. And since the...
    16 July
    fxtime fxtime
    The big question is also if debt is cancelled will Greece still come back for more as it resorts to old fiscal imprudence again? Also all the...
  • Editor’s Picks / 13 July 2015 at 13:24 GMT

    It was a 'shockingly stupid' reversal from Tsipras

    Global Economic Trend Analysis
    Mish Shedlock rarely pulls his punches, nor is he surprised by the "political stupidity" of politicians, but not even he could have anticipated the volte-face by Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras, especially given the referendum result from July 5. Shedlock draws a parallel between the terms Greece has signed up to and "the war reparations at the end of WW1 that ultimately collapsed Germany and led to WW2." Tsipras had played his hand beautifully to get the Greek population on side and manoeuvre Germany into the position of bogeyman and then "traded all that away for nothing." It opens up all sorts of conjecture as to what led Tsipras down this road and, says Shedlock, "stupidity alone cannot possibly explain this course of events."
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    14 July
    Arkalos Arkalos
    Easy for you to judge as an outsider. Would you have done something differently when blackmailed that 100% of the bank deposits of your home nation and...
    14 July
    yuiyui yuiyui
    Arkalos, i think we both agreed that there is a tragedy at play here. It's unfortunate that Greece borrowed so much without any means of paying it...
    14 July
    Martin O'Rourke Martin O'Rourke
    I'd say difficult in fact Arkalos and all we try to do is to make sense of an extremely tragic and harrowing situation. Certainly, the institutions of...
  • Editor’s Picks / 13 July 2015 at 12:52 GMT

    Two charts that spell out the China danger

    BloombergView
    As far as the headline-makers are concerned, China's off limits again after last week's stock market scare subsided and Greece muscled its way back on to the front page, but there is much to be concerned regarding the direction of the Asian superpower, writes Mark Whitehouse. Whitehouse points to two charts — the first highlights China's credit binge which has left debt at 192% of GDP and the second shows the $1.3 trillion exposure of foreign banks to China — with a potential Chinese bust playing out several ways. Whitehouse suggests the best we can hope for is Japanese style stagnation but a shorter, sharper shock could unleash systematic shock through the system and the flirtation with disaster last week does not mean this one has gone away.
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  • Saxo TV / 07 July 2015 at 7:01 GMT

    Koefoed: Why the markets don't fear Greek contagion

    Mads Koefoed
    There's still so much uncertainty over what will be the final outcome for Greece. Saxo's Mads Koefoed says that what's been surprising is what little market reaction there has been. Risky assets led by stocks sold off on Monday's open, but they came back fairly quickly. The same went for Eurodollar.
    watch video
  • Editor’s Picks / 06 July 2015 at 6:02 GMT

    No vote means bank failures, more poor leadership

    Business Spectator
    At least one, if not all, of the major Greek banks are likely to fail early this week. When this happens, the Greek economy will essentially come to a halt. Nobody knows what will happen, but it surely won’t be good. The other depressing consequence is that finance minister Yanis Varoufakis won't have to carry out his promise to resign. Syriza representatives have been miles out of their depth from the time they took office. Everyone with real knowledge and experience of financial markets and liquidity crises told the Greek government to stop playing chicken with the IMF and ECB. They should start listening immediately.
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  • Editor’s Picks / 01 July 2015 at 23:00 GMT

    No one innocent in Eurozone blame game

    Business Spectator
    Everyone involved has to take their share of the blame for the Greek crisis. The whole idea of uniting vastly different economies under one currency, one interest rate and one exchange was madness. Various Greek centre-left and centre-right governments that overspent, fiddled statistics and found ingenious ways of clandestine borrowing deserve a lot of the blame. But to be fair, Tsipras inherited their mess. And the IMF paid too much attention to Greece and invested way too much money in it. Now that Greece is officially bankrupt, perhaps we might see a solution. How about Greece exiting the Eurozone, devaluing the Drachma, defaulting on its debt and reforming its economy?
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  • Article / 30 June 2015 at 6:39 GMT

    Beyond the brink

    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Beyond the brink
    There is exactly the same feeling in the air as before the Lehman default. The market is chasing "good hedges", which don’t exist, and my advice of taking a six-month holiday from markets unfortunately looks like good counsel.
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    30 June
    peter peter
    why not to short?
    30 June
    Martin O'Rourke Martin O'Rourke
    Read what Saxo Bank head of forex strategy John Hardy has to say about the impact on the euro and how the common currency is so far...
  • Editor’s Picks / 24 June 2015 at 12:10 GMT

    Tough on Greece, weak on Russia

    Bloombergview
    The International Monetary Fund has shown it's not to be messed with on the global stage, giving the Greek negotiators a clear hardline on the June 30 repayment obligations. And yet, says Leonid Bershidsky, it's an altogether much limper stance towards Russia and Vladimir Putin from the august body which is siding with the Kremlin and against Ukraine ludicrously leaving the latter owing Russia billions despite the expropriation of territory in the Crimea alone amounting to $3 billion. This "might makes right" mantra is a recipe for disaster in which "the bear gets fed, while the herbivores get fleeced."
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