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  • Article / 21 January 2016 at 12:25 GMT

    Rouble's a-plunging, and it's got further to go

    Russia oil and gas expert
    United Kingdom
    Rouble's a-plunging, and it's got further to go
    Even after the latest drop to post-1998 historic lows, the Russian rouble still seems overvalued on several measures. The rouble seems to be pricing in a return to $40/ barrel of oil and a continuation of the current macroeconomic policies. The oil price aside, the risk of Russian-style QE might not be reflected in current FX rates.
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  • Editor’s Picks / 20 January 2016 at 10:30 GMT

    Global economy 'worse than it was in 2007'

    The Telegraph
    The OECD has warned that a dangerously unstable global economy is hurtling towards a debt default crisis that adds up to a "situation worse than it was in 2007", writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. With write-offs likely to be a prominent feature of the denouement, the European banking system could be facing an unprecedented recapitalisation process as something in excess of $1 trillion in loans to emerging markets gets wiped out. Chairman of the OECD, William White, warned that the policymakers have run out of ammunition to handle further shocks to the system and an orderly management of debt defaults looks an increasingly difficult task to process.
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  • Editor’s Picks / 13 January 2016 at 14:40 GMT

    State of Obama's economy is booming

    Bloomberg
    The comparison is stark. When President Barack Obama was elected in 2008, the US economy was shrinking at a pace unmatched since the Second World War. "In the seven years between then and his final State of the Union address Tuesday night, global investors have enjoyed stellar results from the rapidly expanding Obama economy," said Bloomberg News Editor-in-Chief Emeritus Matthew Winkler. "Market prosperity has been built on a solid economic foundation," Winkler said. Unemployment has fallen by more than in any five-year period since 1989, while the budget deficit to GDP has plummeted 7.7 percentage points from a high of 10.1% in 2010, the biggest favorable reversal in at least 50 years, he said. "That's helped propel the value of US companies to half the world's publicly-traded equity for the first time since 2001." The stock market bottomed in spring 2009 and is up 178% since March of 2009, the biggest seven-year increase since a rally ended in April 2001, Winkler said.
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  • Editor’s Picks / 26 November 2015 at 15:02 GMT

    Greek shipping less help to Greece than GDP shows

    Reuters
    "A Reuters analysis of corporate filings and economic data suggests shipping's heroic role in Greece's economy is largely a myth," writes Reuters correspondent Tom Bergin. According to official statistics, shipping generates around 4% of Greece GDP. But Reuters analysis shows that so little of the Greek shipping industry's income ever lands in the country that its GDP contribution is perhaps only around a quarter of what the official data show. "Shipowners have resisted any effort to ditch the tax breaks they enjoy, and no government has dared touch them," Bergin writes. Greek shipowners include in their statistics billions of dollars which never enter the Greek economy. If Greece counted only payments to Greek companies and individuals - as other countries do - the deep-sea shipping industry's contribution would be equal to around 1 percent of GDP, Bergin says. For Greece, the cost of the tax breaks to shipowners runs into hundreds of millions of euros, he adds.
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  • Editor’s Picks / 15 November 2015 at 21:14 GMT

    Take back power from EU elites, says Varoufakis

    Business Spectator
    Yanis Varoufakis, the former Greek finance minister, says Europeans must save Europe from itself. He told the Kilkenomics festival in Ireland that citizens need to seize power from the European elite. “Either Europe is going to disintegrate, and I believe it is disintegrating, or we are going to have to bind together across borders and create a political movement across Europe to deal with pan-European problems,” he said. The self-proclaimed Marxist gave his assessment of Irish austerity. “Compared to the implosion in Greece, Ireland is an example of a great success story. But only compared to the Greek implosion. To elevate the Irish case onto the pantheon of macroeconomic success, however, is to stress credulity too much”.
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  • Article / 12 November 2015 at 18:32 GMT

    Massive strike halts Greece in new challenge to PM

    Managing Partner / Spotlight Group
    United Kingdom
    Massive strike halts Greece in new challenge to PM
    Greek trade unions have staged a 24-hour general strike to protest against austerity measures, turning against their former ally, the prime minister Alexis Tsipras, who is walking a tightrope to try to satisfy Greece's creditors and the weary Greek nation. Only by meeting creditor demands will fresh finance flow.
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    12 November
    fxtime fxtime
    What an utter farce the greek saga has become :-( The commentary under the first picture says it all....greek economy at a standstill.....but can we really believe...
  • Article / 06 November 2015 at 10:12 GMT

    Russia rolls over day of reckoning

    Russia oil and gas expert
    United Kingdom
    Russia rolls over day of reckoning
    The central bank of Russia cut its forecast for 2015 capital outflows. Much of the decrease, however, seems to have come from refinancing or rolling over debt into 2016, and Russia's creditors could call in their debts if the Urals oil price drops below the critical $50/barrel level.
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    09 November
    Nadia Kazakova Nadia Kazakova
    The other project is now called Power of Siberia-2 (formerly Altai pipeline). It is also known as the western route, because it is supposed to transport the...
    23 December
    elroz elroz
    Reserves are up by $21 billion in December from April to $371 billion. Gold component is now up to 1393 tons, purchased with rubles. External debt is...
    23 December
    Nadia Kazakova Nadia Kazakova
    Hello, You are right, the FX and gold reserves have stabilised, and have been replenished by purchasing gold.

    I think, however, that the FX reserves might start...
  • Article / 16 October 2015 at 10:30 GMT

    The monetary policy dead end

    Economist
    France
    The Federal Reserve’s September status quo proved how difficult it is for central bankers to bring an end to the emergency measures they adopted in the aftermath of the 2007 crisis. Fed chief Janet Yellen’s hesitation and the market turmoil since August seem to validate that it is impossible to stop the accommodative monetary policy, unless you accept that doing so would trigger a new global crisis.
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