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Article / 06 October 2014 at 4:02 GMTIndustrial orders in Germany are likely to resume their recent slide after the July rebound. Sentix data will show that pessimism has spread to investors in the Eurozone. Meanwhile the mood is optimistic on the other side of the Atlantic, and the Conference Board index will point to resilience in the US labour market.Read the article
Trade view / 30 September 2014 at 23:05 GMTStrategic trade
Update: VIX now a strategic play; set higher stop loss at 20.After considering the macro scenario, I have reset the stop loss on the VIX at 20.Read the Trade View
Article / 02 September 2014 at 5:02 GMT
3 Numbers: Recession hovers over Europe, US manufacturing, US buildingThe Eurozone industrial price update will highlight the risk of deflation, and may prompt the ECB to roll out a program of quantitative easing at its monthly announcement this Thursday. Meanwhile analysts are upbeat about today's manufacturing and construction numbers from the US.Read the article
Article / 04 July 2014 at 10:48 GMT
From here to eternity in the age of low interest ratesA dangerous predilection towards economic modelling based on permanently low interest rates is beginning to dominate consensus thinking. For those of us who have vivid memories of former crises such as 1987 and 1992, this illusion will over time exacerbate systemic risk.Read the article
Article / 11 June 2014 at 13:42 GMT
Who’ll lift the World Cup on July 13?The World Cup in Brazil is so close now, you can almost smell it. With our own competition about to get underway too, have you got what it takes to rise to the top and grab the glory on July 13?Read the article
Squawk / 06 June 2014 at 9:09 GMTSP500 E-mini ($ES_F) stays bullish into mid-June, but maybe set for a corrective dip today
S&P 500 June bull theme intact, but threat of a correction
• We stated in our last report that “the early June risks remains to a next extension target at 1938.0” and with that target already hit on Thursday, we aim still higher into mid-June, into next week.
• For Friday, however, we do see risk of a consolidation given intraday and short-term bullish momentum fatigue, for a potential modest setback to minor supports at 1929.5 and maybe 1925/24, with better foundations seen at 1921.0 and 1916.0.
• Into mid-June, however, we now see risk to Fibo targets at 1970.0 and 1978.0, then little to 1996.0.
WHAT CHANGES THIS?
• Below 1921.0 eases bull risks; through 1916.0 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1913.75.
See full report with levels & latest screencast here: http://members.marketchartist.com/Daily/sp500.pdf
2 hour & Adjusted Daily Continuation SP500 E-mini Future Charts
Editor’s Picks / 05 June 2014 at 7:58 GMT
Sara Lee revamp in 2012 vindicated as value soarsReutersWhen the consumer conglomerate Sara Lee broke up in 2012 into meat-focused Hillshire brands and coffee-roaster D.E. Master Blenders 1753 after spurning takeover bids, worth a reported USD 12 billion, it left many scratching their heads. But, says Kevin Allison, fat premiums are on the cards as the value of the various segments reaches towards USD 19 billion.Read article on Reuters
Article / 07 May 2014 at 13:57 GMT
Equity analysis: Sell in May seems to be starting early this yearSmall caps started the sell-off with the big caps holding the market back from falling off the cliff, but now they too seem to be taking a bearish turn.Read the article
Squawk / 30 April 2014 at 6:33 GMTEuro STOXX future ($FESX_F) Bullish Threat through Key 3175/3185 Area
European benchmark average bullish shift reinforced
• We had looked for a consolidation theme through month-end, with risk of a more bullish tone expect to resurface into May.
• However, the strong Tuesday rally through 3125 has allowed for a push through the recent recovery high at 3150, to place higher targets in the crosshairs.
• Into early May (maybe today), we still see the bias for a challenge to the 3175 cycle high and key long-term retrace target at 3185.
• Above aims for 3200, then Fibo targets now seen at 3212, 3226 and 3238 into May.
WHAT CHANGES THIS?
• Below 3113 eases bull risks; through 3080 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 3010/07.
Please see full report with levels and latest audio-visual analysis here: http://members.marketchartist.com/Daily/eurostoxx.pdf
Daily Euro STOXX 50 Future (Adjusted Continuation and Weekly charts)
Squawk / 29 April 2014 at 6:11 GMTSP500 E-mini ($ES_F) Resilient Range Theme Targets 1882.5
S&P 500 constructive range tone from Monday intraday bounce
• An erratic session Monday with a significant erosion of range support, then a strong intraday turnaround to further reinforce the boarder range environment,
• This leaves a slightly positive bias into Tuesday, with base for a push above 1873.5 towards 1882.5.
• We still see a broader non-trend environment defined by the continuation chart peak and setback low for April at 1892.5 and 1803.25.
• Between these levels we see narrower range parameters defined by 1882.5 and 1840.5.
WHAT CHANGES THIS?
• Upside: Above 1892.5 aims for 1900.0 and Fibo targets at 1912.5 and 1926.0.
• Downside: Below 1803.25 aims for the 10 month trend line.
Please see full report with levels and latest audio-visual analysis here: http://members.marketchartist.com/Daily/sp500.pdf
Daily SP500 E-mini Future (Adjusted Continuation chart)