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  • Article / 18 minutes ago

    A French lesson for the UK

    Managing Partner / Spotlight Group
    United Kingdom
    A French lesson for the UK
    French local elections allow the electorate to express their frustration and the failure of Socialist party policies has seen limited growth and rising unemployment. Taxes are high and yet there is an abdication of structural reform and no growth or jobs.
    Read the article
  • Editor’s Picks / 10 hours ago

    New Zealand smashes Australia, except at cricket

    Business Spectator
    A year of outperformance in New Zealand culminated in annual GDP growth of 3.5% in the December quarter versus just 2.5% in Australia. The divergence in growth in the antipodean economies that has lifted the kiwi dollar close to parity with the Aussie for the first time. The key difference is in confidence. Business confidence in New Zealand is high, and fostered solid investment in both capital and employment. As unemployment has fallen, consumer sentiment has risen. By contrast, no amount of RBA easing has been able to convince Australian businesses to take advantage of the lowest borrowing costs on record and invest in growth.
    Read article on Business Spectator
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  • Squawk / Friday at 13:39 GMT
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    US economy grew 2.2% in the fourth quarter:

    The third estimate of Q4 GDP shows that the world's largest economy grew by 2.2% q/q (annualised) vs. 2.4% expected and unchanged from the second estimate a month ago.

    Following growth rates of 4.6% and 5% in Q2 and Q3 the economy slowed markedly in Q4 of last year, but the composition was quite good with personal consumption up 4.4% while government consumption dropped 1.9%. Investment (including inventories) rose 4.5% as did exports while imports rose a substantial 10.4%.

    While Q1 will likely also show slow(-er) growth I expect a pick-up in growth in Q2 and beyond as the impact from USD strength fades while personal consumption and (residential) investment should continue to be key drivers of growth.
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  • 2d
    fxtime fxtime
    The moral to the above imho is.......Never trust a BoE storyteller sorry governor!
  • Calendar event / Friday at 12:30 GMT

    US 3rd estimate GDP

    Med GDP
    Med Chain-Weighted Price Index
    Med PCE Price Index
    Med Purchase Price Index
    Med Real Final Sales
    Med Core PCE Price Index( Ex Food/Energy)
    Med Personal Consumption
    Med Corporate Profits
  • Calendar event / Thursday at 14:15 GMT

    NL GDP - 2nd estimate

    Med Revised Qtrly % Change
    Med Revised Yearly % Change
  • Article / Thursday at 2:00 GMT

    Short-term relief, but long-term pain for AUDUSD

    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    Short-term relief, but long-term pain for AUDUSD
    The speculative bubble in housing hides deeper problems for Australia and its economy in transition. China's slowdown continues to drag on commodity prices. The only release valve for counteracing the fall in Australia's terms of trade is the exchange rate.
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  • 4d
    Dimitrios Tamvakas Dimitrios Tamvakas
    Actually yesterday March 25th was the national celebration for Greek indepedence , not March 30th.
    Stephen Pope Stephen Pope
    Hi there Dimitrios,

    Thank you for your comment. I was trying to suggest that as my paper was written yesterday evening that as it was yesterday that news...
  • Article / Tuesday at 16:53 GMT

    Life below zero

    Managing Partner / Spotlight Group
    United Kingdom
    Life below zero
    The UK inflation rate fell to 0.0% in February and this is, according to official data, the lowest level since records began. Lower food and computer prices helped the rate to decline from 0.3% in January. So what, then, is the outlook for the UK economy?
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    Stephen Pope Stephen Pope
    I hope not...I want companies to embrace creative destruction and innovate
    Krunil48 Krunil48
    Thank you for your answer. I had made this point facetiously on another site as I had found the unions to be vehement in their requests for...
    Krunil48 Krunil48
    P.s. I appreciate the above is a mute point really as deflation is not yet at a significant negative level, or is likely to be, that would...