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  • Editor’s Picks / Monday at 4:52 GMT

    China must act fast to fix demographic time bomb

    South China Morning Post
    The baby boom expected for China with the 2013 easing of the one-child policy has not happened. Couples allowed to have two children have decided not to, putting finances, lifestyle and careers first. The low birth rate and ageing issue mean that population control measures should be scrapped. The one-child policy has meant a rapid ageing of society, a shrinking workforce, growing numbers of elderly and a vast gender imbalance. The worse the demographics get, the more the economy will suffer through low productivity, a decline in consumerism and the need for more government funding for pensions and health care.
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  • Squawk / Thursday at 12:45 GMT
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    US jobless claims hit lowest level since 1970s:

    Last week just 255,000 applied for first-time jobless benefits in the US, according to a new report. This was way below both the expectation of 278,000 and the prior reading of 281,000. It is, in fact, the lowest reading since November 1973 when claims stood at 233,000. As a result, the (less volatile) four-week moving average fell to 279,000 from 283,000.

    It must be remembered that there is typically plenty of volatility in the jobless claims series in July due to factory shutdowns etc. (the Labor Department mentions school staffing as another example).

    Overall, initial jobless claims should remain low (250,000 - 300,000 area) for the remainder of the year as the US labour market continues to expand at a solid pace.

    EURUSD fell from north of 1.101 to around 1.098 as a result, but remains up 0.4% for the day.
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  • Article / Thursday at 5:01 GMT

    3 Numbers: Upbeat UK retail, US Chicago Fed index, US jobless claims

    editor/analyst /
    United States
    3 Numbers: Upbeat UK retail, US Chicago Fed index, US jobless claims
    A solid gain in UK retail spending for June is expected in today’s release. On the other side of the Atlantic, the Chicago Fed is likely to report that the sluggish US growth trend of late ticked up slightly in June. And today's US jobless claims figure may be an indicator of whether a September rate hike is likely.
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  • Editor’s Picks / 21 July 2015 at 10:46 GMT

    China may be the last on the gravy train

    Global growth over the last 30 years, particularly in the less-developed world, has been the basis on which prosperity has been built, but now that the rapid industrialisation of China is showing unmistakable signs of tapering off, where's the next growth spurt to come from, asks Noah Smith. The tried-and-trusted path of rapid industrialisation may have worked for China but the model may be a thing of the past as manufacturing becomes less of a fixture in economies and the turn to human capital becomes ever more prioritised. If manufacturing becomes "a niche activity", says Smith, the likes of India, Africa and others not yet on the train could get left behind unless they can find the resources to pour money into education.
    Read article on Bloombergview
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