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  • Editor’s Picks / Thursday at 13:03 GMT

    Fed's forecasting 'a lot better' than critics think

    Bloomberg
    The US Federal Reserve's forecasting is "a lot better" than observers recognise, says former president of the Minneapolis Fed, Narayana Kocherlakota, a Bloomberg View columnist. Criticism of the Fed’s forecasting has focused largely on its failure to notice, as late as mid-2008, the depth and persistence of the recession that the global financial crisis would cause, but the Fed’s forecasters did better after the recession, Kocherlakota says. For instance, the Fed's forecasts from October 2010 captured a slow but steady recovery in unemployment and core inflation, he says. How did the Fed get it so right? "From 2011 through 2015, the Fed managed the economy with two complementary goals: Get the unemployment rate down to 5% (from near 10%) and keep inflation in a range between 1% and 2%," Kocherlakota says. The Fed adjusted policy to cope with shocks and hit these goals. "In other words, the forecast for unemployment and inflation was accurate because the Fed made it so," he says.
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  • Article / Thursday at 4:59 GMT

    3 Numbers: US jobless claims to post another welcome weekly decline

    editor/analyst / CapitalSpectator.com
    United States
    3 Numbers: US jobless claims to post another welcome weekly decline
    It's all about the US today. Preliminary survey numbers for May look gloomy for manufacturing, but hard data for April should paint a somewhat brighter picture for this key corner of the economy. Meanwhile a second weekly decline in US jobless claims would send a reassuring message that last week's update was not just a one-off. And the Pending Home Sales Index should post its third monthly rise.
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  • Article / 18 May 2016 at 11:55 GMT

    'Central banks can do nothing': Jakobsen

    Editor / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    'Central banks can do nothing': Jakobsen
    Just over a year ago, Saxo Bank chief economist Steen Jakobsen said that a "new nothingness" of zero-bound rates and policies was keeping the world in a state of torpor. This year, we have seen all manner of anti-establishment political movements, but central banks remain on course. Where do we go from here?
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    21 May
    hulle hulle
    I mostly agree! But Sharia law does not work in Europe. The EU have the most mediocre politicians ever. It is a great mistake to depend on...
    22 May
    Martin O'Rourke Martin O'Rourke
    Hi Skitini, you should be able to share if you are using an iPad or laptop. You can also switch to the classic desktop view on your...
    6d
    abach abach
    A very nice piece of work. Disagree only with the optimism. Not completely but the timing of it. The good times are somewhere in the distant future....
  • Calendar event / 18 May 2016 at 8:30 GMT

    GB UK monthly unemployment figures

    forecast
    actual
    High Jobless Claimants % of Workforce
    2.1%
    2.1%
    High Jobless Claimants-Adj
    -5050
    -2400
    Med Avg Earnings Ex-Bonuses, 3-Mo
    +2.2%
    +2.1%
    Med Unemployment Rate, 3-Mo
    5.1%
    5.1%
    Med Unemployment, Net Chg, 3-Mo
    -2000