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  • Article / 14 May 2015 at 5:06 GMT

    3 Numbers: India's deflation fears; US jobless, consumer comfort index

    editor/analyst / CapitalSpectator.com
    United States
    3 Numbers: India's deflation fears; US jobless, consumer comfort index
    Disinflation in India is weighing on the Indian stock market, and little relief is expected in wholesale price data. Meanwhile, yesterday’s disappointing US retail sales report raises the stakes for today’s jobless claims, and the crowd will be watching for any further downward bias in Bloomberg's Consumer Comfort Index.
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  • Article / 04 May 2015 at 5:21 GMT

    3 Numbers: Spain recovery in swing, EU confidence, US factory orders

    editor/analyst / CapitalSpectator.com
    United States
    3 Numbers: Spain recovery in swing, EU confidence, US factory orders
    Signs of recovery are clearly visible in Spain – the latest evidence arrived with the first-quarter GDP report, which showed that Spain’s output grew 0.9% against last year’s fourth quarter. European investor confidence shows a similar upwards tick – but far more modest. Meanwhile, economists are looking for a Q2 rebound for US manufacturing.
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  • Squawk / 29 April 2015 at 8:24 GMT
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Italian manufacturing confidence rises, consumer confidence slumps:

    Italian manufacturers are gaining confidence in the economic recovery, as confirmed by today's release, which shows that confidence rose to 104.1 this month vs. 103.6 expected and 103.7 prior. Retailers and construction also reported stronger confidence at 105.9 vs. 103 prior while services noted a drop to 104.4 from 108.1. The broad economic sentiment index followed services confidence lower to 102.1 from 103.

    Consumer confidence fell to 108.2 in April vs. 110.4 expected and 110.7, but it remains close to a 13-year high and next month will show whether April was an outlier or confidence is indeed moving south again.

    The lack of structural reforms in Italy is a key reason for my subdued outlook for the economy in the coming years with growth seen in the 0.5% to 1% range in 2015-2016.
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  • Squawk / 28 April 2015 at 14:52 GMT
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    US consumer confidence drops, but house prices rise:

    We have had a mixed bag of US data today led by a large decline in the Conference Board's consumer confidence index to 95.2 in April from 101.4 a month ago. Consensus had looked for a slight improvement to 102.2 and today's reading of 95.2 is the weakest of the year.

    The Richmond Fed manufacturing index also came in (slightly) below expectations at -3 in April vs. -2 expected, though this was an improvement on March's -8 reading. New order remain weak at -6 (vs. -13 prior) but the number of employees rose to 7 from 6 and the average workweek was also positive at 4 (vs. -4).

    The Case-Shiller home price composite index rose 0.9% m/m in February vs. 0.7% expected and 0.9% prior implying an annual change in house prices of 5% (4.7% expected).

    The S&P 500 index is down a tad so far today (-0.1%). Tomorrow we have Q1 GDP (12:30 GMT) and FOMC (18:00) as the main events.
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