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  • Article / 4 hours ago

    FX Update: USD bulls still waiting for traction

    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    FX Update: USD bulls still waiting for traction
    The RBA failed to cut overnight and AUDUSD squeezed back higher. Meanwhile, USDJPY couldn’t maintain the 120.00 level and EURUSD refuses to push lower after last week’s swoon. The USD needs to get something going or we risk another squeeze on bulls losing confidence.
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  • Squawk / 4 hours ago
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Another solid labour market report from Spain:

    It should be no surprise by now that I view the Spanish economy favourably compared to the other three of the 'big 4' in the euro area, Italy and France in particular.

    The labour market certainly continues to do well. A fresh report for February shows a decline in unemployment of 13,500 while consensus had looked for a drop of 2,900. In January unemployment rose by 78,000. This series is not seasonally adjusted so we compared YTD instead. In 2015, unemployment rose by 64,000 in Jan-Feb compared with 111,000 in 2014 and 191,000 in 2013. A notable improvement.

    The employment series on the other hand is seasonally adjusted, and it shows an increase of 84,000 or 0.5% m/m. This translates into 2.8% y/y; in comparison US nonfarm payrolls are up by 2.4% from a year ago.

    I expect the Spanish economy to grow at least 2% this year - and possibly closer to 2.5% due to added tailwinds from weaker currency and energy prices.
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  • Calendar event / 5 hours ago

    CH GDP

    forecast
    actual
    Med GDP QoQ
    +0.6%
    Med GDP YoY
    +1.8%
    +1.9%
  • Editor’s Picks / 8 hours ago

    Believe it or not, negative nominal interest makes sense

    The Guardian
    Negative nominal interest rates look like an unconventional policy tool. After all, if banks charge you for holding your money, why not simply stash it at home? But holding cash can be risky, as rats and robbers can get at it. In fact, investors have long accepted real negative returns. When you hold a bank account at a zero interest rate, the real return is negative. And investors accept negative returns for the convenience of holding cash balances. So there is nothing new about negative nominal interest. Over time, negative returns may lead savers to save less and spend more, and thereby jumpstart economic growth. That would be the real benefit of negative returns.
    Read article on The Guardian
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  • Article / 9 hours ago

    It may feel like 1999, but it's more like 1929

    Business writer and editor
    Australia
    While equities are running up world-beating records, the bond markets tell us the world is in a serious funk – so something has to give. The market is partying like its 1999 and we all know what happened not long after that. Chasing the next yield is one thing, but it is ramping up markets when the economic evidence is pointing elsewhere.
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  • Editor’s Picks / 10 hours ago

    Popular film highlights China's smog crisis, growth dilemma

    Business Spectator
    Investigative reporter Chai Jing has produced a stunning documentary on China's smog problem that could become a turning point for the environmental movement in the East Asian nation. The popular documentary has already been viewed 126 million times on Tencent’s site alone and it has galvanised national attention. Chai’s film reveals the power of the big three oil companies that threaten to shut down supplies if government agencies impinge on their turf, leaving environmental authorities looking powerless. China faces a dilemma between GDP and jobs growth on the one hand, and the environment on the other. But as Alibaba founder Jack Ma says, what is the point of having economic growth when you can no longer see blue sky?
    Read article on Business Spectator
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