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  • Article / 3 hours ago

    Central banks calling: We can beat deflation
    Managing Partner / Spotlight Ideas
    United Kingdom
    Despite the low inflation rates being recorded around the world, it shouldn't be assumed that developed economies are being sucked into a deflationary tailspin. In the developed world, the Eurozone and Japan have been two flat spots and any evidence that growth was starting to power ahead would feed directly into the US economy. The evidence supports the BoJ, but can the ECB - with its QE programme about to begin this month – actually deliver?
    Read the article
  • Article / 3 hours ago

    Bank of Japan remains steadfast as inflation falls again
    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    The Bank of Japan's governor Haruhiko Kuroda is sticking to the line that the 2% inflation target will be met around fiscal 2015. However, the latest inflation data shows annual CPI at 0.2%. The BoJ still has the option of introducing negative deposit rates or increasing asset purchases. That’s unlikely before mid-year so in the meantime US dollar developments will drive the USDJPY cross
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  • Article / 4 hours ago

    Today's Trade: China rate cut to help buyer mood
    Trading Desk / Saxo Capital Markets
    Australia
    Over the weekend China’s central bank surprised the market with a rate cut, shaving a quarter of a percentage point off benchmark lending and deposit rates. Its Manufacturing PMI also came in at 49.9 versus 49.7 forecast. Locally, markets are expecting early gains, while AUDUSD will remain choppy until tomorrow's Reserve Bank decision on rates.
    .
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  • Article / 4 hours ago

    NPC is a godsend for diehard China bulls … and bears

    Managing Director / Asia-analytica Research
    China
    The much-hyped annual meeting of the Chinese legislature is essentially political theatre – with tightly scripted policy pronouncements that this year are all but certain to reaffirm continued state backing for reform, rebalancing and restructuring. But the typically cryptic language of policy will allow both bulls and bears to each make a different case.
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  • Calendar event / Friday at 21:16 GMT

    CN Trade
    forecast
    actual
    High Exports YoY % Change
    +4%
    -3.3%
    High Imports YoY % Change
    -3.3%
    -19.9%
    High Trade Balance
    48.4B
    60B
  • 1d
    donal wislow donal wislow
    This comment has been redacted
  • 1d
    donal wislow donal wislow
    This comment has been redacted
  • Article / Friday at 15:05 GMT

    No inflation? No problem
    Managing Partner / Spotlight Ideas
    United Kingdom
    No inflation? No problem
    US GDP growth may have fallen short of expectations and CPI readings may signal deflation, but the American economy is fundamentally strong. A deeper look into the statistics, including into energy trends and Core CPI readings, makes this quite clear.
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    1d
    donal wislow donal wislow
    This comment has been redacted
  • Squawk / Friday at 14:54 GMT
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Chicago PMI drops sharply in February to 5-year low:

    Consensus had looked for a small decline to 58 in February from 59.4 in January, but instead the Chicago PMI surprised everybody with a plunge to just 45.8, the lowest print since mid-2009.

    S&P 500 is down 0.2% on the news.

    The ISM manufacturing report will be released on Monday.
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    2d
    Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
    University of Michigan consumer confidence is revised up in the final February report to 95.4 from 93.6. Still a decline from January's 98.1.
  • Squawk / Friday at 13:38 GMT
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    US Q4 GDP growth revised down to 2.2% on inventories:

    The second estimate of fourth quarter GDP for the US resulted in a downward revision of 0.4pp to 2.2%, confirming that the US economy slowed down in the final quarter of 2014 after growth of 4.6% and 5% in Q2 and Q3 respectively. However, the main culprit of the downward revision were inventories, which are now estimated to have added 0.1pp to growth vs. 0.8pp in the original estimate.

    Key components such as private consumption (2.8pp vs. 2.9pp prior), fixed investment (0.7pp vs. 0.4pp), government consumption (-0.3pp vs. -0.4pp) and net exports (-1.2pp vs. -1pp) saw little change.

    All in all, a non-event.
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