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  • Article / 2 hours ago

    A rock and a hard place

    Head of Trading / The ECU Group plc
    United Kingdom
    A rock and a hard place
    Today we discuss the most recent monetary policy inferences from the February Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes and discuss the growing emphasis on the State of the Union Address – not just for the US, but for the global economy and broad financial markets.
    Read the article
  • Squawk / 3 hours ago
    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    US Dollar looks expensive in present monetary environment - here is chart of Real Rates (leading) DXY Index... DXY is 1.33 Z- score expensive while its "leader" is negative 0.3 (Theory being real rates of US dollar drives value of it..)
    Read the Squawk
  • 5h
    sairam sairam
    safe .......book.........crudeoil book 3648........
    3h
    trendy trendy
    Hi
    2h
    sairam sairam
    crudeoil buy@3630..........1st target hitteddddddddddddddd 3657................whatsapp 08106292758..................
    gold buy comex above$1248 sl 1230 tgts 1270/1290.........................whatsapp08106292758.............
  • 6h
    Market Predator Market Predator
    @John: the blue curve MBI062DA is something like inflation expectation, or? Thanks.
  • 7h
    sairam sairam
    crudeoil lowwwww 3613...................whatsapp08016292758.............
  • Squawk / 9 hours ago
    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Steen’s Comment Macro:

    UBS’s piece is important read and rhymes with our view that global cyclical factors is peaking now.

    Inflation YoY impact from energy will come down from >80% positive to flat between now and end of May (and yes spill-over happens especially into macro narrative)

    Fed is unlikely to move early into massive short exposure in fixed income – the FI world split into massive bulls and bears, with no middle ground – COT report shown below from Ole S Hansen tells its own story:


    Source: Ole S Hansen and COT report

    Each BASIS POINT of move in rates is equivalent to 159 mio. US Dollar changing hands!

    Finally we have major event risk between now and mid-March. This means we have to be extreme vigilant vis-à-vis risk and small changes to underlying volatility

    I remain overweight US FI on slow-down as outlined above, plus net short dollar now mainly vs. Gold and GBP – yesterday I added short WTI Crude against peak in growth being in place.

    Steen
    Read the Squawk
    7h
    Macronomics Macronomics
    and Free COT data here: https://freecotdata.com/
    7h
    Market Predator Market Predator
    @Ole: OK Ole, thanks for your feedback.
    @Macronomics: thanks for external COT link. I can also recommend this one: http://www.timingcharts.com/ but to be honest I'll stay with...
    3h
    helicongrowth helicongrowth
    Hi Is the UBS piece available to read ? Thnks HG