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  • Squawk / 7 hours ago
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Charting US initial jobless claims:

    First-time applications for jobless benefits rose to 282,000 last week (270,000 expected) from 275,000 a week early, according to the Labor Department. It is the 12th straight week with claims below 300,000. Jobless claims continue to paint a picture of an improving labour market and the unemployment rate could cross below 5% this year (5.4% currently).

    The May US employment report will be released on June 5 with consensus expecting a gain of 218,000 in nonfarm payrolls at the moment.
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  • Article / 9 hours ago

    Opec summit looms large as market awaits US oil print

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Opec summit looms large as market awaits US oil print
    Both Brent and WTI crude oil are hovering just above support following a three-day decline. Some ballast is currently being provided by the expectation that today's US inventory report will show that crude inventories eased for a fourth week while US production continued to decline.
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  • Saxo TV / 10 hours ago

    Hansen: Why I'm not calling it an oil rally, yet

    Ole Hansen
    Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank's Head of Commodity Strategy, was shocked by the meteoric decline in oil over the past year, as were most analysts. Prices have since stabilised around USD 60 from the January 2015 low of USD 44.80. Ole isn't convinced that the recent rebound constitutes a rally as three risk factors remain: ISS militants in the Middle East, global oversupplies, and inflated bullish demand expectations.
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  • Squawk / 11 hours ago
    Chairman, Saxo Capital Markets UK Limited / Saxo Bank
    United Kingdom
    The first revision of Q1 2015 UK GDP data was a slight disappointment, in that the reading was unchanged from the first, advance, release at +0.3% qoq, below expectations, which were for +0.4%.

    Looking at the details, although gross capital formation came in at a healthy +1.5%, consumption growth, at 0.5% qoq was the most important shortfall, given expectations for +0.7% and the fact that consumption accounts for 70% of the UK economy. Maybe this is yet another vestige of the effect that election uncertainty had upon ‘animal spirits’ in the economy.
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  • Calendar event / 11 hours ago

    GB GDP 2nd estimate

    forecast
    actual
    Med GDP Revised Quarterly
    +0.4%
    +0.3%
    Med GDP Revised Yearly
    +2.5%
    +2.4%
  • Squawk / 12 hours ago
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Spanish GDP confirmed at 0.9% while retail sales hit 4%:

    The Spanish economy accelerated in Q1, according to the final GDP report, which confirmed the initial estimate of 0.9% q/q. This comes on the back of a 0.7% print in Q4'14 and implies an annual growth rate of 2.7% - by far the highest of the 'big 4' in the euro area (EA).

    Household spending growth remained strong in Q1 at 0.7% albeit that was somewhat lower than Q4's 0.9%. Government consumption rose 1.6% after a -1% print a quarter earlier while investment climbed 1.3%. Exports and imports rose 1% and 0.8% respectively.

    In another report we learned that retail sales rose by 4% y/y through April. This was well above expectations of 2.6% and up from March's 2.8%.

    The outlook for Spain remains positive and I expect the economy to continue to outperform the other major countries of the EA. Elections remain a key downside risk, however. I look for full-year growth of 3% (vs. 1.4% in 2014)
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