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Article / 1 hour agoStatistical data give contradictory signals about the state of Russia's economy, but if one pays attention to the production of cardboard boxes (as Alan Greenspan advised), Russia appears to be in deep trouble.Read the article
Squawk / 3 hours agoGerman IFO unchanged in May:
A rather unexciting May IFO report out of Germany this morning shows unchanged confidence compared to April. The headline business climate index printed 108.5 vs. 108.3 expected and 108.6 prior helped by a gain in the current assessment index. This index rose to 114.3 from 114 while the more important (forward-looking) expectations index dropped to 103 from 103.4 as expected.
A reading of 108.5 in the IFO business climate has historically been consistent with growth of more than 2 percent, but the euro area's largest economy only managed half that (1 percent) in Q1 compared to a year earlier. The annual growth rate is, however, expected to move higher and could well hit 2 percent in 2H'2015.
Article / 3 hours ago
FX Update: USD stuck in a rut ahead of US CPI dataThe USD rally couldn’t find any fresh fuel yesterday and overnight, as the market looks toward today’s US CPI release for inspiration. The Bank of Japan meeting saw a mild upgrade to the rhetoric describing the economy, and drove a modest JPY rally.Read the article
Squawk / 3 hours agoFrench manufacturing confidence hits 46-month high in May:
Buoyed by lower oil prices and a weak euro confidence among French manufacturers rose another point in May on top of the three gained in April (following an upward revision to 102 from 101). This implies a manufacturing confidence index of 103, the highest since July 2011. Consensus had only looked for a print of 101.
The broader business confidence index also rose a point to 97 as expected. Services sector confidence rose three points to 95 while retailers saw a two-point increase to 106 and construction confidence gained a single point to 89.
Another survey index, the composite PMI, printed 51 in May (and 50.8 for Apr-May on average vs. 51 in Q1) confirms the improved sentiment in France. However, the 0.6% Q1 GDP increase may be hard to reproduce this quarter, and our longer-term view for the French economy remains one of moderate growth: https://goo.gl/0IVdLN
Article / 4 hours ago
Morning Markets: Draghi ready to fightEuropean Central Bank president Mario Draghi may well come out swinging this morning after the US Fed's Stanley Fischer could not resist a swipe at the whole euro project last night. Expect potential EURUSD fireworks if the language gets tasty.Read the article
Article / 5 hours ago
Earnings review: Youku Tudou rallies on strong guidanceYouku Tudou beat revenue consensus but missed earnings consensus with its first-quarter earnings release, but investors were impressed by strong second-quarter revenue guidance. Ad revenue grew, driven by stronger mobile monetisation, but investors should remain concerned that content costs show no sign of slowing down.Read the article
Calendar event / 5 hours ago
DE GDP - Detailed breakdownpreviousforecastactualMed GDP Revised (Adjusted) Quarterly+0.7%+0.3%+0.3%Med GDP Revised (Adjusted) Yearly+1.4%+1%+1%
Article / 6 hours ago
3 Numbers: German GDP and Ifo sentiment slow down, US CPIToday's data releases are not among the most important ones, as the German GDP and Ifo business climate are more or less old news. However, the GDP contributions could reveal whether domestic demand and investment are picking up, which would be a welcome shift from the current export-led model. In the US, consumer prices tell us what we already know – no inflation as of yet, but does it really matter to the Fed?Read the article
Article / 6 hours ago
Expect Draghi to go epic after Fischer's roastThe European Central Bank's annual forum got off to a rocky start after the US Fed vice-president Stanley Fischer basically said the euro was a mistake, crisis management was too slow and the monetary union has no future without fiscal integration. This is what I think ECB president Mario Draghi believes, so I expect his speech today to go all-in, just as he did in July 2012 and in 2014 in Jackson Hole.Read the article
Editor’s Picks / 9 hours ago
HP to sell Chinese unit to Tsinghua Unigroup for $2.3bnReutersHewlett-Packard is selling a controlling 51% stake in its China-based data-networking business to China's Tsinghua Unigroup for at least $2.3 billion, according to Reuters. The move will lead to a partnership designed to create a Chinese technology powerhouse. State-backed Tsinghua Holdings' subsidiary Unisplendour will acquire 51% of HP's H3C Technologies. HP said it will form a partnership with Tsinghua Holdings to create a group in China to house H3C's networking operation alongside its China-based server, data-storage and technology-services businesses.Read article on Reuters