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  • Squawk / 1 hour ago
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    US consumer confidence drops, but house prices rise:

    We have had a mixed bag of US data today led by a large decline in the Conference Board's consumer confidence index to 95.2 in April from 101.4 a month ago. Consensus had looked for a slight improvement to 102.2 and today's reading of 95.2 is the weakest of the year.

    The Richmond Fed manufacturing index also came in (slightly) below expectations at -3 in April vs. -2 expected, though this was an improvement on March's -8 reading. New order remain weak at -6 (vs. -13 prior) but the number of employees rose to 7 from 6 and the average workweek was also positive at 4 (vs. -4).

    The Case-Shiller home price composite index rose 0.9% m/m in February vs. 0.7% expected and 0.9% prior implying an annual change in house prices of 5% (4.7% expected).

    The S&P 500 index is down a tad so far today (-0.1%). Tomorrow we have Q1 GDP (12:30 GMT) and FOMC (18:00) as the main events.
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  • Squawk / 1 hour ago
    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Early warning signal from BTP's?

    2y vs 10y often steepens when there is uncertainty. The Italian 2vs10s are indication of "spill over" from Greece.... Not alarming yet, but market is starting to take notice.
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  • Article / 3 hours ago

    #Election2015: GBPUSD will fall hard after UK election

    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    #Election2015: GBPUSD will fall hard after UK election
    GBP has been flying high ahead of the UK election on May 7 while the USD has been on the defensive. But uncertainty about the make up of the next government, coupled with concerns about the hole in Britain’s finances means GBPUSD may eventually decline back to the sub-1.4600 April lows and far beyond by year-end.
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  • Calendar event / 7 hours ago

    External Merchandise Trade

    Low Exports YoY % Change
    Low Imports YoY % Change
    Low Trade Balance