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  • Editor’s Picks / 1 hour ago

    The global economy is now a Rorschach test

    Bloomberg View
    After more than half a decade of inactivity on interest rates, the US Federal Reserve believes economic conditions have improved enough to raise borrowing costs. The only question is when, rather than if, to move. Central bankers in the UK, by contrast, are suggesting they could raise, or lower, or leave their key rate unchanged from the 0.5% level that's also prevailed for the past five years. Their lack of certainty should make the Fed less gung-ho in its rush to escape the so-called zero bound. Both Ray Dalio and Jeffrey Gundlach, two of the world’s leading investors, have warned the Fed shouldn't be in too much of a hurry. They’re right. And if the Bank of England’s soothsayers, all looking at the same evidence, see three different monetary-policy prescriptions, policy makers everywhere should take that as a warning to be even more careful than usual.
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  • Article / Yesterday at 10:20 GMT

    A French lesson for the UK

    Managing Partner / Spotlight Group
    United Kingdom
    A French lesson for the UK
    French local elections allow the electorate to express their frustration and the failure of Socialist party policies has seen limited growth and rising unemployment. Taxes are high and yet there is an abdication of structural reform and no growth or jobs.
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  • Saxo TV / Yesterday at 9:41 GMT

    Hardy: How to avoid Good Friday going bad

    John J Hardy
    Despite Good Friday being a bank holiday and markets in Europe and the US closed, the US non-farm payroll numbers will be out. They come at a time when forex markets are nervous and there is a high risk of volatility, says Saxo Bank’s John Hardy.
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  • Article / Yesterday at 9:10 GMT

    War story: A peg with office hours

    Blogger / MoreLiver's Daily
    War story: A peg with office hours
    "War stories" are personal experiences that are shared among seasoned traders. In this new series I recall market-related events that I have experienced. In today's episode I discuss how the Finnish markka's ERM-peg provided an opportunity that the markets had missed.
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  • Article / Yesterday at 8:13 GMT

    FX Update: Pivot week for USDJPY, EURUSD

    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    FX Update: Pivot week for USDJPY, EURUSD
    EURUSD and USDJPY ended last week in limbo as we look to this week’s US data to spark a move out of the current zone of technical uncertainty. EURUSD could prove especially volatile, given signs of very heavy short positioning.
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  • Article / Yesterday at 5:58 GMT

    3 Numbers: EU business mood fragile; US personal income; US home sales

    editor/analyst /
    United States
    3 Numbers: EU business mood fragile; US personal income; US home sales
    There are hopes that the upbeat mood among Eurozone consumers could spread. Today's business sentiment data will reveal is that is the case. Meanwhile in the US, income and spending, along with PCE inflation, are likely to stay muted in today’s February release. Even a minor rise in pending home sales will be greeted as a sign that the US is recovering from its winter slumber.
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