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  • Squawk / Just now
    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Steen’s Comment Macro:

    UBS’s piece is important read and rhymes with our view that global cyclical factors is peaking now.

    Inflation YoY impact from energy will come down from >80% positive to flat between now and end of May (and yes spill-over happens especially into macro narrative)

    Fed is unlikely to move early into massive short exposure in fixed income – the FI world split into massive bulls and bears, with no middle ground – COT report shown below from Ole S Hansen tells its own story:

    Source: Ole S Hansen and COT report

    Each BASIS POINT of move in rates is equivalent to 159 mio. US Dollar changing hands!

    Finally we have major event risk between now and mid-March. This means we have to be extreme vigilant vis-à-vis risk and small changes to underlying volatility

    I remain overweight US FI on slow-down as outlined above, plus net short dollar now mainly vs. Gold and GBP – yesterday I added short WTI Crude against peak in growth being in place.

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  • Article / 1 hour ago

    3 Numbers: Chicago Fed index set to show firmer US growth in January

    editor/analyst /
    United States
    3 Numbers: Chicago Fed index set to show firmer US growth in January
    Today's focus is on Germany's consumer sector, with Gfk's Consumer Climate Index projected to dip modestly for March. Meanwhile in the UK, a modest rebound is likely for the CBI Distributive Trades Index and the January update of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index is expected to offer an upbeat profile of the US macro trend.
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  • Calendar event / 2 hours ago

    SG CPI

    Med CPI, Y/Y%
    Med CPI Food, Y/Y%
    Med Transport, Y/Y%
    Med Core CPI, Y/Y%
    Med Housing & Utilities, Y/Y%
  • Article / Yesterday at 15:00 GMT

    China-US trade war — the bark is not the bite

    Managing Director / Asia-analytica Research
    China-US trade war — the bark is not the bite
    China has so far refused to be baited into the first steps down a mutually destructive spiral of a trade war, as events since Trump’s inauguration have shown. But it shouldn't be assumed that the new US president actually wants to start a trade war – there are easier ways of being seen as living up to his China campaign promise. Do not mistake the bark for the bite.
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  • 19h
    Jingjie Lee Jingjie Lee
    $1278/oz, it seems too high
    matsuri matsuri
    in case of gold, if 38,2% got broken at least 61.8% was reached in cases of corrections, so seems possible
    julia555 julia555
    Gold & Silver are important assets in an investor’s portfolio, especially now because of the huge, worldwide, debt bubble that Billionaire experts say will pop in the...