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  • Article / 5 minutes ago

    It may feel like 1999, but it's more like 1929

    Business writer and editor
    While equities are running up world-beating records, the bond markets tell us the world is in a serious funk – so something has to give. The market is partying like its 1999 and we all know what happened not long after that. Chasing the next yield is one thing, but it is ramping up markets when the economic evidence is pointing elsewhere.
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  • Editor’s Picks / 55 minutes ago

    Popular film highlights China's smog crisis, growth dilemma

    Business Spectator
    Investigative reporter Chai Jing has produced a stunning documentary on China's smog problem that could become a turning point for the environmental movement in the East Asian nation. The popular documentary has already been viewed 126 million times on Tencent’s site alone and it has galvanised national attention. Chai’s film reveals the power of the big three oil companies that threaten to shut down supplies if government agencies impinge on their turf, leaving environmental authorities looking powerless. China faces a dilemma between GDP and jobs growth on the one hand, and the environment on the other. But as Alibaba founder Jack Ma says, what is the point of having economic growth when you can no longer see blue sky?
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  • Squawk / Yesterday at 15:09 GMT
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    US manufacturing expands at slowest pace since January '13:

    The manufacturing sector continues to grow in the world's largest economy, but we have witnessed a quick slowdown in recent months. The ISM manufacturing index declined to 52.9 last month - as expected by consensus (53) - from 53.5 in January and a high of 58.1 in August of last year. The deceleration has been particularly pronounced in the last three months with the index still as high as 57.6 in November.

    Among the sub-indices new orders slowed somewhat to 52.5 from 52.9 while production printed 53.7, down from 56.5. The employment component also slowed quite a bit to 51.4 from 54.1, interesting ahead of Friday's employment report. Manufacturing employment has averaged 31,000 per month in Nov-Jan.

    Overall a report without major surprises.
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  • Editor’s Picks / Yesterday at 13:34 GMT

    Why China's prospects might be a lot brighter

    It's something of a truism to view a slowdown in China as inevitable given the belief that slowdown inevitably follows a period of strong, sustained growth and by that model, China certainly fits the bill. But, says Mark Buchanan, the linkage is at its strongest when the economies in question are at intermediate to high levels of complexity. It becomes far more difficult to make that case with less-developed nations which fall into an essentially different regime of economic dynamics, according to the work of a group of physicists led by Matthieu Cristelli. That has big implications for China certainly, and most probably India, and is grounds for some more optimism for the future of these two behemoths.
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    Mister Fischer Mister Fischer
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  • Editor’s Picks / Yesterday at 10:39 GMT

    Blaming bankers is a 'grotesque political lie'

    The Telegraph
    As the UK election date draws ever closer, the combatants are engaging in a round of banker bashing to demonstrate to the voting public who would hit the sector hardest if elected. The Telegraph's Andrew Critchlow bemoans this lowest common-denominator approach to vote winning and labels the blame apportioned to bankers for the financial crisis as a "grotesque political lie." Critchlow says the banking sector has been one of Britain's biggest success stories of the post-war period and if anyone deserves the blame for the crisis that struck so many families so hard at the end of the last decade, then look no further than the governing party of the time, the Labour Party.
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  • Article / Yesterday at 10:30 GMT

    Daily Shot: Death by a thousand cuts? Team / Saxo Bank
    China has cut its benchmark interest rate for the second time this year as low growth and deflationary pressures hit the economy. The US, on the other hand, appears to be growing closer to a rate hike, but any timing errors from the Fed could put a real damper on equity markets.
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