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  • Squawk / Thursday at 10:37 GMT
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Bank of Spain sees growth of 2.8% this year:

    The Spanish central bank has revised its full-year growth forecast up to 2.8% while it sees growth of 0.8% q/q in Q1. The central bank also sees robust growth next year of 2.7%. Inflation will be modest at 0.2% this year while the unemployment rate should hit 22.2% in Q4 and 20.5% in Q4'16.

    Earlier today we got housing data from Spain. Mortgage lending rose 11.9% y/y (27.1% prior) while mortgage approvals rose 20% (28.9% prior). These are very volatile series, but the trend is up.
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  • Calendar event / Wednesday at 8:00 GMT

    ES PPI

    forecast
    actual
    Low PPI, M/M
    +0.2%
    Low PPI, Y/Y
    -1.6%
  • 17 March
    esantiw esantiw
    Serge, good analysis but what was 5 % from your last week article is already too far away . What is your view on levels where it...
    17 March
    Serge Berger Serge Berger
    @esantiw, couple of things. 1) I am not looking to short the indices for now but rather am interested in buying a correction of the year to...
    18 March
    esantiw esantiw
    Any updates @Serge? Dax is showing some good correction
  • Calendar event / 12 March 2015 at 8:00 GMT

    ES CPI

    forecast
    actual
    Med Yearly % Change
    -1.1%
    Med Harmonized Yrly % Chg
    -1.2%
    -1.2%
  • Squawk / 04 March 2015 at 7:43 GMT
    Senior Equity Trader / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Abertis in Spain are suspended by the regulator. The suspension to be lifted at 10 AM CNMW says.
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  • Squawk / 03 March 2015 at 8:18 GMT
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Another solid labour market report from Spain:

    It should be no surprise by now that I view the Spanish economy favourably compared to the other three of the 'big 4' in the euro area, Italy and France in particular.

    The labour market certainly continues to do well. A fresh report for February shows a decline in unemployment of 13,500 while consensus had looked for a drop of 2,900. In January unemployment rose by 78,000. This series is not seasonally adjusted so we compared YTD instead. In 2015, unemployment rose by 64,000 in Jan-Feb compared with 111,000 in 2014 and 191,000 in 2013. A notable improvement.

    The employment series on the other hand is seasonally adjusted, and it shows an increase of 84,000 or 0.5% m/m. This translates into 2.8% y/y; in comparison US nonfarm payrolls are up by 2.4% from a year ago.

    I expect the Spanish economy to grow at least 2% this year - and possibly closer to 2.5% due to added tailwinds from weaker currency and energy prices.
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  • Squawk / 26 February 2015 at 7:42 GMT
    Senior Equity Trader / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Repsol Q4 earnings €370M vs €123M last year
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  • Squawk / 06 February 2015 at 8:25 GMT
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Spanish industrial production decline 0.3% m/m in December:

    The euro area's fourth-largest economy has seen industrial production growth turn negative in recent months. This trend was confirmed in today's report covering December when industrial output dropped 0.3% m/m (the third consecutive monthly drop) and went even further into negative growth on a year-on-year basis at -0.9%, down from -0.3%.

    However, PMI manufacturing does not support the current drop in industrial output and neither do the general state of the economy, so for now I'm inclined to rule it a temporary slowdown driven mainly by a decline in energy output (note also that factory orders are growing).
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