Views
All
  • All
  • Articles
  • Squawks
  • Trade views
  • Must reads
  • Videos
  • Calendar
Write a Squawk
No posts
  • Squawk / Yesterday at 7:42 GMT
    Senior Equity Trader / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Repsol Q4 earnings €370M vs €123M last year
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / 06 February 2015 at 8:25 GMT
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Spanish industrial production decline 0.3% m/m in December:

    The euro area's fourth-largest economy has seen industrial production growth turn negative in recent months. This trend was confirmed in today's report covering December when industrial output dropped 0.3% m/m (the third consecutive monthly drop) and went even further into negative growth on a year-on-year basis at -0.9%, down from -0.3%.

    However, PMI manufacturing does not support the current drop in industrial output and neither do the general state of the economy, so for now I'm inclined to rule it a temporary slowdown driven mainly by a decline in energy output (note also that factory orders are growing).
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / 03 February 2015 at 8:14 GMT
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Spanish unemployment declines less than expected in January:

    The good news for Spain - and the labour market in particular - continues with a solid January report. Unemployment typically rises sharply in January, and it did so too last month, but by "only" 78,000. Less than the 88,000 expected by consensus and quite a bit lower than last year's increase of 113,000.

    Employment, which is seasonally adjusted, gained 12,600 in January followed an increase of 57,500 in December. In terms of annual growth in employment, we saw a slight decline in January to 2.5% from 2.6%.

    Having said that, Spain's unemployment rate remains very high at 23.7% (Dec.). The euro area's unemployment rate was 11.4% in December.
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / 30 January 2015 at 8:09 GMT
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Spanish GDP jumps 0.7% in fourth quarter:

    The fourth-largest economy in the euro area saw growth climb to 0.7% q/q in Q4 following gains of 0.3%, 0.5% and 0.5% in Q1-Q3. This was higher than expected by consensus, which had looked for a similar-sized gain of 0.5%. In year-on-year terms growth is up 2% (1.9% expected) from 1.6% prior.

    We are bullish on the Spanish economy this year, expecting it to do better than Germany, France and Italy: https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/spanish-retail-sales-jump-in-december-to-65-retailers-in-the-euro-areas-fourth-largest-econom-3448871
    Read the Squawk
    30 January
    Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
    Austria's GDP was flat in Q4 while Q3 was revised down to -0.1% q/q from 0%. This implies annual "growth" of -0.1% from +0.2%.
    30 January
    Mads Koefoed Mads Koefoed
    Spanish CPI (EU harmonised) drops to -1.5% y/y in January as expected from -1.1%. Spanish wages are up 4.1% y/y in nominal terms in December.
  • 10 January
    Frejsen Frejsen
    In your publication you write: "Our trade idea is therefore to be long the IBEX 35 Index
    (IBEX35.I) with a stop at 9,850."

    That trade was stopped out the...
    13 January
    Peter Garnry Peter Garnry
    It is due to the lack from publication research to actual publication. We are going to do something about that going forward.
  • Squawk / 05 January 2015 at 8:30 GMT
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Spanish unemployment declines less than expected:

    The labour market in the euro area's fourth-largest economy continues to recovery, according to a new report from the Spanish labour ministry.

    Unemployment declined by 64,400 in December following a drop of 14,700 in November while consensus had looked for a decline of 80,000. These figures are not seasonally adjusted, however. If we look at the full-year figures unemployment declined by 254,000 in 2014 following a decline of 147,000 in 2013 and an increase of 426,000 in 2012.

    Employment figures, meanwhile, are seasonally adjusted, and they show employment ticking up by 46,200 in December alone or by 417,200 since December 2013. Employment is up 2.6% y/y in Spain.

    Other timely indicators also show growth in Spain though PMIs have weakened in recent months: https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/euro-area-pmi-manufacturing-accelerates-a-bit-in-december-euro-area-based-manufacturers-reported-3034573
    Read the Squawk
    05 January
    Peter Garnry Peter Garnry
    Spanish equities is our top country pick in global equities in Q1...which we will soon announce in our quarterly outlook.
  • Squawk / 02 January 2015 at 8:11 GMT
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Spain-Germany yield spread narrows to less than 100bp:

    The German 10-year government bond yield is trading around 0.463% this morning while the Spanish equivalent is trading at 1.527%. This implies a spread between the two bond yields of around 98bp, the first time the spread has been below 100bp since May 2010.

    I have a favourable view on the Spanish economy relative to the other three of the "big 4" in the euro area (including Germany):
    https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/spanish-retail-sales-climb-consumer-prices-drop-retailers-in-the-fourth-largest-economy-in-the-3011711
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / 30 December 2014 at 8:11 GMT
    Head of Macro Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Spanish retail sales climb, consumer prices drop:

    Retailers in the fourth-largest economy in the euro area recorded an increase in (inflation- and workday-adjusted) sales in November of 1.9% y/y, up from 1% in October and stronger than the 0.8% print expected by consensus.

    Consumer prices, on the other hand, declined more than expected in December, according to today's preliminary estimate. Consensus had looked for a -0.7% y/y print but the actual drop was 1.1% following -0.4% a month ago.

    I expect the Spanish economy to be the strongest of the "big 4" in the euro area in 2015 with growth of close to 2%. The unemployment rate will move lower from 24% in October 2014 to below 23% in late 2015 and the housing market is expected to recover (modestly): https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/spanish-house-prices-continued-their-climb-in-q3-the-deeply-distressed-spanish-housing-market-is-2766093
    Read the Squawk
    30 December
    Oldiron25 Oldiron25
    I feel sorry for the Spanish people the price of property. seems to be driven in part by wealthier europeans and Russian Buying holiday homes . as...