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  • Article / Friday at 14:03 GMT

    WCU: Commodities higher on cocktail of dollar weakness and inflation

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    WCU: Commodities higher on cocktail of dollar weakness and inflation
    Renewed risk appetite led by the recovery in stocks globally, a weaker dollar and a rising inflation focus, supported a strong week for commodities with investors continuing to have an appetite for broad-based commodities funds. Gains were seen across most sectors with industrial metals on top ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday.
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    3d
    matsuri matsuri
    so what the range for oil will be then?
    3d
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    No change from our Q1 outlook: $60 to $70 on Brent
    3d
    iruman3 iruman3
    sir what's going on gold next weak...it more uptrend??
  • Squawk / Thursday at 15:27 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Natural gas looking for support ahead of $2.50/lb just like it has successfully done on four previous occasions since August 2016. The latest collapse has been triggered by record production and higher temperatures which is denting winter demand.
    Today's weekly stock report due shortly is surveyed to show a 186 bcf drop compared with a five-year average for this week of -154 bcf.
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    4d
    Alan M Alan M
    Hi Ole, I've been reading about commodity fund closures that have been running for 15+ years due to algorithmic trading moving the markets by 25 - 30...
    4d
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Hi Alan. Commodities are one of the few asset classes still depending on good old supply and demand. Speculative trading tends to exacerbate market movements and potentially...
    4d
    Alan M Alan M
    Interesting, thanks Ole. The price action in ags like sugar and coffee seem very one sided, and nat gas is impossible to trade with any kind of...
  • Article / Thursday at 11:13 GMT

    Crude oil higher but correction risks remain – #SaxoStrats

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Crude oil higher but correction risks remain – #SaxoStrats
    After falling by more than 12% and after almost reaching our downside target for this quarter, crude oil is showing the first signs of stabilising. However, a weaker dollar driven by increased concerns about the US economic outlook is not a strong enough foundation from where a price recovery can be established.
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  • 12 February
    carlosdemarch carlosdemarch
    thanks Ole. I would appreciate if you can plot the commodity price in the graphs' right axis again.
    12 February
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Let me take a look Carlos
  • Squawk / 08 February 2018 at 9:03 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Brent crude oil has reached its first technical target based on the Head&Shoulder breakout. Unlikely in our opinion to halt the market slide given the emerging focus on a seasonal slowdown in demand and run away US production growth and funds having to reduce longs amid the deteriorating technical outlook.
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    08 February
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    In our Q1 outlook we highlighted the reasons for potentially seeing Brent crude return to $60 before settling into a $60 to $70 range. These reasons have...
    08 February
    The Grinch The Grinch
    Range seems reasonable in the longer term. However, a dip below $60 may be on the cards should Saudi start fighting back over lost market share.
    08 February
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Natural gas stocks dropped 119 bcf to 2078 bcf last week (-112bcf was exp). The deficit to the 5-year average shrinks to 15.9% from a 17.5% last...
  • Squawk / 07 February 2018 at 11:45 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Crude Oil has given back some of yesterday's late gains as we await the "Weekly Petroleum Status Report" from the EIA at 1530 GMT. Bouncing stocks and a surprise weekly inventory drop reported by the API supported the late sprint following a day mostly spent on the defensive. Not least after the EIA in their monthly Short Term Energy Outlook once again raised non-Opec production while keeping global demand steady. They now see US production already exceeding 11 million b/d this November, one year earlier than previously expected.
    The short term outlook remains challenged by a seasonal slowdown in demand due to refinery maintenance in Europe, Asia and now also the US. Funds holding a record long have been net-sellers this week with the risk of more to come as the price moves further away from the recent peak
    Table covering API results and EIA survey attached.
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    07 February
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    EIA report showed rising stocks of oil, gasoline and products while production jumped by 332k b/d to reach 10.3m b/d. Results and initial market reaction attached
    07 February
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    EIA report in charts
    07 February
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    BBG comment: Crude inventories rose less than expected, up 1.9 million barrels, as higher refiner demand more than offset weaker exports. Cushing stocks continue to drain, and...