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  • Squawk / Friday at 21:14 GMT
    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    President Trump’s inauguration speech saw the USD decline, whilst Bonds
    held steady. My Updated US Stockmarket Analysis below – Still Bullish.

    The Trump rally from election day to inauguration was 6% (refer below).
    The greatest rally came in the lead up to the inauguration of Herbert Hoover
    in 1929 (that didn’t turn out to well in the end!)

    Earlier on the White House web site announced a target of 4% annual GDP growth, double its non-inflationary potential, so only attainable with the sugar pill of substantial fiscal stimulus. This would put Trump on a collision course with Fed Chair Yellen who noted in a speech yesterday that fiscal policy could affect “the appropriate policy path”. More background on that here https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/inflation-update-puts-yellen-on-collision-course-with-trump-8401544

    Neither protagonist wants a higher USD, yet both are setting out on a path to achieve it
    Read the Squawk
    17h
    seas seas
    I predict a monster decline in asset values, including the stock market and the dollar.
    17h
    seas seas
    So I am selling calls on just about everything. Wish me luck!
    14h
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    Possibly correct Jim. But under your scenario of higher debt and inflation expectations, US bond yields would surely rise at a time when the ECB and BOJ...
  • Article / Thursday at 5:55 GMT

    3 Numbers: ECB likely to seek solid inflation proof before tightening

    editor/analyst / CapitalSpectator.com
    United States
    3 Numbers: ECB likely to seek solid inflation proof before tightening
    Economists expect the ECB will leave its benchmark refinancing rate unchanged at 0% today, despite a pop in inflation. But the days of super-easy monetary policy look numbered. Today's ECB press conference may reveal more. Meanwhile in the US, jobless claims should stay near their record low in today’s update. And housing starts are for December are headed for a solid rebound.
    Read the article
  • Calendar event / Wednesday at 13:30 GMT

    US CPI

    forecast
    actual
    High CPI, M/M%
    +0.3%
    +0.3%
    High Core CPI, M/M%
    +0.2%
    +0.2%
    Med Energy Idx, M/M%
    +1.5%
    Med Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M%
    +0.1%
    Med Food Idx, M/M%
    0%
    Med CPI, Y/Y%
    +2.1%
    Med Core Annual, Y/Y%
    +2.2%
  • 4d
    AlanCollins AlanCollins
    Momentum weaker than expected. Suggest reducing below 1.0020 instead of 12. Lowering stop to 1.0048, cancelling the sell rally strategy
    4d
    ldan ldan
    Thanks Alan. I'm out now. Cheers
    3d
    Creation1984 Creation1984
    Buy or Sell bitcoin???
  • Article / Wednesday at 5:55 GMT

    3 Numbers: US CPI headed for two-year high

    editor/analyst / CapitalSpectator.com
    United States
    3 Numbers: US CPI headed for two-year high
    The resilience of Britain’s economy in the wake of Brexit has forced economists to revise their previously gloomy forecasts. Meanwhile in the US, inflation is trending slightly up, which keeps the Fed on course to hike up rates some time in 2017 - but not immediately. As for industrial output in the world's top economy, it is literally steaming ahead.
    Read the article
  • Article / Tuesday at 6:02 GMT

    3 Numbers: UK inflation expected to hit two-year high for December

    editor/analyst / CapitalSpectator.com
    United States
    3 Numbers: UK inflation expected to hit two-year high for December
    UK inflation is still low historically but the trend is up and the December figure is expected to come in at a two-year high in today’s update. The post-Brexit slide in the pound is partly responsible. Meanwhile we will see another encouraging sign from the top EU economy today, with ZEW Business sentiment in Germany on track to rise again. And on the other side of the Atlantic, the New York Fed’s manufacturing index is set to post a positive reading for the third month in a row.
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  • Squawk / 13 January 2017 at 21:07 GMT
    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    Friday 13th was no hindrance for the FTSE which closed higher for the 14th day in a row: a record.

    But the US stock market limped into the long weekend with more sideways action: the 1.4% high/low range over the last month is the lowest in history.

    Calm before the storm perhaps........

    Next week’s main event will be the ECB meeting Thursday. Consider the Bloomberg chart below. According to the Taylor rule (where the policy rate should be set relative to developments in inflation, growth etc) the ECB should be 6.2%. Indeed, as the chart shows, pre GFC the policy rate was usually *higher” than that suggested by the rule. Something’s gotta give; the spread can’t keep rising.

    Meanwhile EURUSD and USDJPY remain under the spell of rate differentials https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/record-shorts-in-bond-market-stall-usd-rally-8384222?int_cmpid=TF_email_trader_i_follow_posts_article
    Read the Squawk
    6d
    seas seas
    So the ECB should give some rate guidance Thursday. Would they go ahead a raise without warning? It looks as though some of a raise has already...
    6d
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    The ECB has left itself plenty of room to manoeuvre by saying the asset purchases will stay in place until December or beyond if necessary but “in...