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  • Squawk / Friday at 21:29 GMT
    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    The US dollar has closed on its lows in New York trading, with USDJPY at 106.30. The odds of a rate hike by the Fed at their June 16 meeting have dropped to 12%. not helped by today’s PCE price index numbers (the Fed’s inflation benchmark) showing the rate of increase declining in both the headline and core categories (see chart below).

    The price action in USDJPY suggests a tough start to the week in Japan’s markets after Friday’s holding. FX traders will be watching for signs the Bank of Japan is “checking prices” for possible intervention. However, that’s unlikely at this stage. More on the Japan situation here https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/inflation-forecast-justified-boj-decision-to-sit-it-out-this-time-7543539
    Read the Squawk
  • Calendar event / Friday at 12:30 GMT

    US Personal Income & Outlays

    forecast
    actual
    Med Personal Income, M/M%
    +0.3%
    +0.4%
    Med Consumer Spending, M/M%
    +0.2%
    +0.1%
    Med PCE Price Idx, M/M%
    +0.1%
    Med PCE Price Idx, Y/Y%
    +0.8%
    Med PCE Core Price Idx, M/M%
    +0.1%
    +0.1%
    Med PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y%
    +1.6%
  • 2d
    Marcus Antonius Marcus Antonius
    Good point. -- Saxo TV just dramatised J.J.H.'s USD statement; now it sounds like I should sell USD like there's no tomorrow. We'll see what happens.
    2d
    Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
    EURUSD's price action is worrying - it has difficulties getting lower, and seems happy to push the longer-term range's (1.05-1.15) upper bound.

    Sure, the March-April rally has...
  • Calendar event / Thursday at 12:30 GMT

    US Advance estimate GDP

    forecast
    actual
    High Annual Rate, Q/Q%
    +0.7%
    +0.5%
    High PCE Price Idx, Q/Q%
    +0.3%
    High Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q%
    +2.1%
    High Personal Consumption, Q/Q%
    +1.9%
    Med Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q%
    +0.6%
    +0.7%
    Med Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q%
    +0.3%
    Med Real Final Sales 1st Est, Q/Q%
    +0.9%
  • Calendar event / Wednesday at 18:00 GMT

    US U.S. interest rate decision

    forecast
    actual
    High Fed Funds Rate-Range Low
    0.25
    High Fed Funds Rate-Range High
    0.5
    High FOMC Vote For Action
    9
    High FOMC Vote Against Action
    1
    Med Discount Rate
    1
    Med Discount Rate Change (Pts)
    0
  • Calendar event / Wednesday at 14:00 GMT

    US Pending Home Sales Index

    forecast
    actual
    Med Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y%
    +1.4%
    Low Pending Home Sales
    110.5
    Low Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M%
    +0.5%
    +1.4%
  • Squawk / Tuesday at 23:52 GMT
    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    Tomorrow is “Super Thursday” for FX traders based down under in Australia and New Zealand. Three central banks, the US Fed, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Japan will all issue monetary policy statements during local trading hours. NZDUSD will thus be impacted both ways, perhaps by a hawkish Fed (thereby pushing up USD) and a dovish RBNZ, that may cut its policy rate to 2% or at least indicate strongly a cut is on the way. Thus there could be a double-whammy hit to the Kiwi and this would provide a big "assist" to my Bullish AUDNZD Forecast (see Daily Chart Analysis below - click to enlarge).
    Read the Squawk
    4d
    martingrexa martingrexa
    Super wednesday
    4d
    vyacheslav111 vyacheslav111
    Can I buy now with a stop 1,1025 ?
    4d
    esantiw esantiw
    to be clear Are you expecting AUD and NZD both to fall more?