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  • Squawk / Yesterday at 13:12 GMT
    -
    United Kingdom
    W4 technical #FX sentiment:
    #AUDCAD ▲
    #AUDUSD ▲
    #EURGBP ▼
    #GBPJPY ▲
    #NZDCAD ▲
    #NZDUSD ▲
    #AUDJPY ▲
    #NZDJPY ▲
    #EURAUD ▼
    #GBPCAD ▲ (CONTRARIAN)
    #EURNZD ▼
    #GBPUSD ▲ (CONTRARIAN)
    #MOFuturesFX
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / Friday at 21:14 GMT
    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    President Trump’s inauguration speech saw the USD decline, whilst Bonds
    held steady. My Updated US Stockmarket Analysis below – Still Bullish.

    The Trump rally from election day to inauguration was 6% (refer below).
    The greatest rally came in the lead up to the inauguration of Herbert Hoover
    in 1929 (that didn’t turn out to well in the end!)

    Earlier on the White House web site announced a target of 4% annual GDP growth, double its non-inflationary potential, so only attainable with the sugar pill of substantial fiscal stimulus. This would put Trump on a collision course with Fed Chair Yellen who noted in a speech yesterday that fiscal policy could affect “the appropriate policy path”. More background on that here https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/inflation-update-puts-yellen-on-collision-course-with-trump-8401544

    Neither protagonist wants a higher USD, yet both are setting out on a path to achieve it
    Read the Squawk
    17h
    seas seas
    I predict a monster decline in asset values, including the stock market and the dollar.
    17h
    seas seas
    So I am selling calls on just about everything. Wish me luck!
    14h
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    Possibly correct Jim. But under your scenario of higher debt and inflation expectations, US bond yields would surely rise at a time when the ECB and BOJ...
  • 3d
    Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
    Afternoon Sabrina. LOL... I think it will be the other way around. I have a feeling that ECB will surprise today
    2d
    Alex Balus Alex Balus
    this time s/l after all (
  • Squawk / Tuesday at 22:15 GMT
    -
    United Kingdom
    Wednesday Jan18 #FX sentiment:
    #AUDUSD ▲
    #USDCAD ▼
    #CADCHF ▲
    #EURUSD ▲(CONTRARIAN)
    #NZDJPY ▲
    #NZDUSD▲
    #NZDCHF▲
    #MOFuturesFX
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / 13 January 2017 at 21:07 GMT
    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    Friday 13th was no hindrance for the FTSE which closed higher for the 14th day in a row: a record.

    But the US stock market limped into the long weekend with more sideways action: the 1.4% high/low range over the last month is the lowest in history.

    Calm before the storm perhaps........

    Next week’s main event will be the ECB meeting Thursday. Consider the Bloomberg chart below. According to the Taylor rule (where the policy rate should be set relative to developments in inflation, growth etc) the ECB should be 6.2%. Indeed, as the chart shows, pre GFC the policy rate was usually *higher” than that suggested by the rule. Something’s gotta give; the spread can’t keep rising.

    Meanwhile EURUSD and USDJPY remain under the spell of rate differentials https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/record-shorts-in-bond-market-stall-usd-rally-8384222?int_cmpid=TF_email_trader_i_follow_posts_article
    Read the Squawk
    6d
    seas seas
    So the ECB should give some rate guidance Thursday. Would they go ahead a raise without warning? It looks as though some of a raise has already...
    6d
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    The ECB has left itself plenty of room to manoeuvre by saying the asset purchases will stay in place until December or beyond if necessary but “in...