- Trade views
- Must reads
Article / 1 hour agoAUD was the biggest mover after a weak CPI figure overnight and AUDUSD is down through the first key support. Elsewhere, GBP bulls were disappointed by the BoE minutes and the JPY crosses are stirring, if every so slightly.Read the article
Trade view / 2 hours agoDay trade
GBPUSD to find extra downside with a break of 1.6783With cable still trading in relatively depressed ranges ahead of NY opening, we expect the pair to find renewed trading interest to the downside with a break below 1.6783 opening up for additional range expansion.Read the Trade View
Squawk / 2 hours agoGBPUSD techs showing a bit of a momentum breakdown after the BoE minutes failed to build the hawkish case for the BoE (though they were relatively neutral - the market is simply leaning hard on sterling appreciation and needs constant input to keep the pressure higher). A bigger disappointment would be a move below the local support around 1.6775, below which recent longs have likely placed some portion of their stops. (See chart below.) The pair could be more vulnerable to downside accelerations after the most recent COT report showed net speculative sterling longs near their highest levels since 2007 as of last Tuesday and likely even longer now. Further out, a bigger breakdown awaits if 1.6700/1.6675 can't hold if/after the local support breaks.
Squawk / 6 hours agoBank of England Minutes from the April 9 meeting are fairly neutral, with the debate on labour market slack not yielding any firm conclusions, though "some evidence" against the unemployment rate understating the amount of slack in the UK economy. There was no prominent observation on the exchange rate other than that it has risen, but there was a prominent mention (finally!) of the risk from the large current account deficit "if the widening [in the deficit] were to persist.... The market has been getting long of sterling lately, and there's not much to support hawkish expectations as UK rates are easing a tad lower on this release. 1.6775/50 is the next key support zone in GBPUSD and may be tested.
Full minutes: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/minutes/Documents/mpc/pdf/2014/mpc1404.pdf
Trade view / 8 hours agoShort term
GBPUSD buyers return, sentiment positiveAfter three days of indecisive trading and a lack of clear direction, yesterday saw buying interest return to Cable. This improvement took the market back to the top of the Keltner channel and to a test of last week's high point. Intraday signals are overbought but setbacks are likely to be temporary and limited so we look for demand to continue to develop.Read the Trade View
Article / 8 hours ago
Lower CPI smacks Aussie, GBP mulls upcoming BoE minutesAUD hit by a weaker than expected CPI reading. Elsewhere, EURUSD remains an exercise in randomness within the range as volatility implodes. Flash April PMIs for Europe and Bank of England Minutes on tap this morning.Read the article
Squawk / 9 hours agoGBPUSD Late April Upside Risk through 1.6877 for Critical 1.7000/42
GBPUSD bullish tone and extension bias
• A push to a new recovery high last week and a subsequent resilient tone leaves the threat still higher into this week.
• We still target another new cycle high this week and aim for a longer term level at 1.6877.
• The risk for late April is now still higher to psychological 1.7000 and the multi-year high from 2009 at 1.7042.
WHAT CHANGES THIS?
• Below 1.6625 eases bull risks; through 1.6550 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.6465.
Please see full report with levels and latest audio-visual analysis here: http://members.marketchartist.com/Daily/GBPUSD.pdf
Daily and Monthly GBPUSD charts
Article / Yesterday at 14:17 GMT
FX Board for April 22, 2014: Sterling surgeCable is pushing up against long-term resistance ahead of BoE minutes. Elsewhere, the USD consolidation to the strong side is fading again, amid vanishing volatility.Read the article
Squawk / Yesterday at 12:50 GMTGBPUSD is trading up at the highs for the cycle. A weekly close at current levels would be the highest weekly close since the late 2008 collapse. The Bank of England minutes tomorrow are highly anticipated, but remember that the Bank of England meeting took place before the market saw last week’s very strong employment data. Still, UK rates are sharply higher after the Feb. unemployment rate showed a drop to below the former BoE threshold at 7.0%. Further upside toward 1.700 is a possibility of the minutes show growing concern that the slack in the UK economy is rapidly disappearing and if the USD goes back on the defensive.
Also driving sterling trading today is the story that Novartis will acquire a unit of the UK’s GlaxoSmithKline. More on that M&A deal: http://goo.gl/nK1lLh
Squawk / Yesterday at 11:55 GMTFX options flow: Buyers of options seems to be done for the day, and the sellers are back: 1y EURUSD given at 7,275 and offered on. Same picture in GBPUSD and USDCHF.