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Views on British Pound/US Dollar
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  • Squawk / 9 hours ago
    Kresten Bechmann Kresten Bechmann
    Options Trader / Saxo Bank a/s
    FX options flow: Sorry for broken record.... Vols trading a little softer again today: 1m EURUSD trading at 5,25% and offered on, and 1m GBP at 4,9%. In GBPJPY 1y atm jsut got given at 9,6%. We are slowly getting close to the multi years low of 2007 where 1m EURUSD ATM traded as low as 4,6%. So the question is, how far can it go?? Good luck
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    Kresten Bechmann Kresten Bechmann
    1m EURUSD have traded many times at 5,2 just now, however the bid is now gone and the market is offered on, the sell fest continues.....
    Cwealth Cwealth
  • Editor’s Picks / 11 hours ago

    As wine fetches staggering sums, fakery claims rise

    New York Times
    When the Atlanta wine collector Julian LeCraw Jr. spent USD 91,400 on a single bottle in 2006, he was convinced that the 1787 vintage from the renowned Chateau d’Yquem in France was worth the lofty price, then the highest ever for a white wine. Now, Mr. LeCraw says he has been left with the bitter aftertaste of a fake and is suing the seller for USD 25 million.
    Read article on New York Times Go to post
  • 1d
    Fxjo Fxjo
    I concur
  • Squawk / Yesterday at 12:30 GMT
    John J Hardy John J Hardy
    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    GBPUSD techs showing a bit of a momentum breakdown after the BoE minutes failed to build the hawkish case for the BoE (though they were relatively neutral - the market is simply leaning hard on sterling appreciation and needs constant input to keep the pressure higher). A bigger disappointment would be a move below the local support around 1.6775, below which recent longs have likely placed some portion of their stops. (See chart below.) The pair could be more vulnerable to downside accelerations after the most recent COT report showed net speculative sterling longs near their highest levels since 2007 as of last Tuesday and likely even longer now. Further out, a bigger breakdown awaits if 1.6700/1.6675 can't hold if/after the local support breaks.
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  • Squawk / Yesterday at 9:17 GMT
    John J Hardy John J Hardy
    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Bank of England Minutes from the April 9 meeting are fairly neutral, with the debate on labour market slack not yielding any firm conclusions, though "some evidence" against the unemployment rate understating the amount of slack in the UK economy. There was no prominent observation on the exchange rate other than that it has risen, but there was a prominent mention (finally!) of the risk from the large current account deficit "if the widening [in the deficit] were to persist.... The market has been getting long of sterling lately, and there's not much to support hawkish expectations as UK rates are easing a tad lower on this release. 1.6775/50 is the next key support zone in GBPUSD and may be tested.

    Full minutes:
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