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  • Squawk / 12 October 2017 at 8:41 GMT
    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    EURSEK jumps after weak CPI release for September, which saw the core inflation unchanged at 2.3% YoY and the headline at 2.1% vs. 2.5%/2.4 expected. The consensus view (including our own) recently has been that EURSEK would continue to grind lower due to SEK's weak valuation and the eventual need for the Riksbank to remove accommodation as the core CPI has stretched above 2.0%.

    Even the recently reappointed Riksbank governor Ingves was amenable to some further SEK strength, which seemed to give SEK bulls the green light as the Riskbank has been explicitly targeting the currency in its dovish policy mix. But this weak CPI print and the spike lower in SEK suggests that the market may be over-positioned and the vulnerable side could be higher for EURSEK on the risk of a short squeeze. Bears should be on guard if the price action is sustained above 9.60 for the risk of a spike back toward 9.75 or higher.
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  • Calendar event / 12 October 2017 at 7:30 GMT

    SE CPI

    forecast
    actual
    Med CPI, M/M%
    +0.3%
    +0.1%
    Med CPI, Y/Y%
    +2.3%
    +2.1%
  • 04 October
    Market Predator Market Predator
    Hello Ole. Could you please unveil what area of industry is main consumer of Zinc? As I know, Copper is essential for all industry and very good...
    04 October
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Hi MP- Zinc together with the other industrial metals of Aluminum, nickel, lead and tin mostly trade on the LME to which we currently don't offer access....
    04 October
    Market Predator Market Predator
    Thanks Ole, perfect answer 👍
  • Squawk / 29 September 2017 at 10:30 GMT
    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    SEK sharply lower as uber-dove Ingves gets another five-year term at helm of Riksbank. Some of the recent Riksbank meetings showed the hawks getting a bit restless, but Mr. Ingves won another term and he is sure to forever default to the dovish side as he has for a long time unless SEK is notably lower and other central banks have moved first.

    Still, SEK is very cheap so the potential for more follow-on weakness may be limited - it does mean the longer term path lower for EURSEK is potentially made more difficult unless inflation levels really start to pick up or the Riksbank is finally forced to address the Swedish housing bubble - somewhat less likely on the latter as new macro-prudential rules require more payment of principle as of mid-2016. The local line of interest in EURSEK is around 9.60 as the tactical bull/bear line, while the cycle resistance is up just above 9.80.
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