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Editor’s Picks / Yesterday at 23:36 GMTBusiness SpectatorFor once, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided not to surprise the market and delivered on what was a well anticipated move on May 5: a 25 basis-point cut to a record low of 2%. While there is no clearly stated bias to cut again, there is a clear easing bias. This is the key take from the RBA decision: the signal that the RBA is prepared to fight the Fed as it continually backs away from a hike. The Australian dollar is the clear target and the board reiterated that it wants it lower – and a little more forcefully. It’s an interesting stance to take, especially at a time when the key economic data is accelerating.Read article on Business Spectator
Squawk / Yesterday at 20:26 GMTEURAUD
Article / Yesterday at 14:59 GMT
FX Board: USD ignores strong dataThe USD was unable to sustain a rally stance today even after a strong ISM non-manufacturing survey for April. Weakening risk appetite in Europe may be the culprit as the "Macro trade of the year" has gone wrong lately.Read the article
Article / Yesterday at 11:53 GMT
How the RBA made a 25-basis-point political errorAustralia has joined Asia’s easy money stampede, but unfortunately for the Reserve Bank of Australia, the market had already priced the bulk of the move in the currency last Thursday. It's also fired the last bullet in its monetary policy chamber.Read the article
Article / Yesterday at 7:25 GMT
FX Update: AUD rallies, but USD chomping at the bitAUD jumped as the RBA’s guidance was seen as neutral, even as they cut rates as expected. The rally may not last in AUDUSD, though that pair will be highly data-reactive for the rest of the week. The next US data point in the cross-hairs is today’s April US ISM non-manufacturing survey.Read the article
Squawk / Yesterday at 6:37 GMTAUDUSD Bull Tone Intact, Post (and Pre) RBA
A further dip lower Monday, but then a minor bounce effort reinforced by the post-RBA rebound to signal a small base and for the downside corrective phase to be concluding.
This now sees bias for a rebound back higher into midweek and for the bullish pressures from latter April to resurface.
We still see upside risks for May from the rally through .7938, that defined a base and the push above chart/ retrace resistance at .8027 and .8062 that set a more bullish outlook.
The break above our initial target at .7893, sees an upside bias for .7926.
But below .7800/.7790 opens risk down to .7761 and .7707/02, maybe key .7679, which we would look to try to hold.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook - Upside Risks:
We see a more positive tone with the bullish threat back to the new recovery peak at .8076, then to .8137.
Above here targets key levels at .8224/34 and .8295.
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Calendar event / Yesterday at 4:30 GMT
AU Australian cash rate decisionpreviousforecastactualHigh Cash Rate2.252Med Net Change0-25
Article / Yesterday at 2:58 GMT
Today's Trade: Shares and AUD primed for rate cutS&P 500 gained 6.20 points or 0.3%. The local market has already built in a 76% chance of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia today, so no cut would be the surprise for ASXSP200 and AUDUSD.Read the article
Calendar event / Yesterday at 1:30 GMT
AU International Trade in Goods & ServicespreviousforecastactualMed Balance on Goods and Services - adjusted-1.3B-1B-1.32BMed Exports - adjusted+1%-2%Med Imports - adjusted+2%-2%
Trade view / Yesterday at 0:43 GMTDay trade
AUDUSD: Sell the rumour buy the fact today?Whilst holding the low .7800s, a corrective rally is likely towards resistances about .7925 and .7975. However, trend risk is down, towards .7535.Read the Trade View