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  • Editor’s Picks / 2 hours ago

    New Zealand smashes Australia, except at cricket

    Business Spectator
    A year of outperformance in New Zealand culminated in annual GDP growth of 3.5% in the December quarter versus just 2.5% in Australia. The divergence in growth in the antipodean economies that has lifted the kiwi dollar close to parity with the Aussie for the first time. The key difference is in confidence. Business confidence in New Zealand is high, and fostered solid investment in both capital and employment. As unemployment has fallen, consumer sentiment has risen. By contrast, no amount of RBA easing has been able to convince Australian businesses to take advantage of the lowest borrowing costs on record and invest in growth.
    Read article on Business Spectator
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  • Calendar event / Yesterday at 23:50 GMT
    High Industrial Output (on month)
    -1.8%
    -3.4%
    Med Inventory-Shipments Ratio (on month)
    +4.3%
    Med Shipments (on month)
    -3.4%
    Med Inventories (on month)
    +0.5%
    Med Companies Forecast Ind Output In Following Month
    -2%
    Med Companies Forecast Ind Output Two Months Later
    +3.6%
  • Article / Yesterday at 22:25 GMT

    KVP’S Macro Take: Everyone has a plan 'til they're punched in the face

    Asia Macro Strategist / Saxo Capital Markets
    Singapore
    KVP’S Macro Take: Everyone has a plan 'til they're punched in the face
    As the boxer Mike Tyson says, “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face”. The importance of carrying out risk management & position sizing cannot be emphasized enough. End of 1Q in this short week, packed with Fed speakers, quarterly shuffles & lots of US data + nonfarm payrolls being due on Friday, April 3. Meanwhile only 9 days ago to the Tuesday, April 7 RBA decision, where there should be a cut
    Read the article
  • Squawk / Yesterday at 15:00 GMT
    -
    United Kingdom
    Monday 30 March sentiment:
    #GBPAUD▲
    #NZDJPY▼
    #NZDUSD▼
    #AUDJPY▼
    #AUDUSD▼
    #CADJPY ▼
    #EURAUD▲
    #EURCAD▲
    #NZDCHF▼
    #AUDCHF▼
    #CADCHF▼
    #MOFuturesFX
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / Yesterday at 11:52 GMT
    -
    Poland
    GBPUSD M15.
    There is a trigger up which expanded just to 2.4220, still given the fact from where the bounce off took place it satisfies the condition of 3:1 P/L ratio for 50/50,
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / Yesterday at 11:51 GMT
    -
    Poland
    GBPUSD M30.
    There are more actions visible on the M30 chart. Shorter scales mean less money involved, could be a rule but may be contradicted by the HFT who work in different dimensions of the market. Anyway, this M30 scale shows more initiatives, perhaps smaller in size nevertheless their goals can be clearly defined, some targets are met, so they knew what they were doing. Interesting that both the sellers and the buyers are still sitting on some profit. At a glance it looks that selling was more fearful than buying. Buyers pocketed handsome F times the size of the trigger up.
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  • Squawk / Yesterday at 9:29 GMT
    -
    Poland
    GBPUSD H4.
    It looks heavy with the massive selloff early March and a strange jerk to 1.5169 extinguished there and the gas burner flame hardly heating big figure 1.5000 now. It is interesting that the short lived bounce off (hardly 8 hours long) began from MIN RISK level @ 1.4671, their stops sitting @ 1.4557. Those stops are still intact, but notice that they managed to pocket standard profit for which the 3:1 ratio line I marked in red. The line is quite a resistance. So in my judgement, they closed a lot of their positions inspired by the 50/50 and 3:1 rule. On the other hand the trigger down from end of February expanded to 1.4762 and there is so much more energy behind the slide. When markets cannot create a direction they move towards stops. I marked three nearest (dense) stoplosses @ 1.5170, 1.5151, and 1.4557.
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / Yesterday at 7:09 GMT
    Hypothesis Testing
    United Kingdom
    EoD traders on cable are simply sitting on their hands awaiting a directional move. So far the series of tightening outside candles on the daily charts have shown a tighter closing price support/resistance. A break of R1 or S1 and close beyond these ranges will mark the new trend. Short term rsi is neutral so is of no use other than suggesting there is plenty of room for a trend either way without giving concern to overdone market momentum. An 1.5 std deviation OTM Sell Put to open and 1.5 std dev Sell Call to open April trade may be useful as strike prices for b/e become more favourable and demand less margin and run to approx 4 or 5 days before expiry for max theta decay may be of use especially if we get a strong directional trend occurs prior to expiry as can be covered with excess time premium imho.
    Read the Squawk
    19h
    fxtime fxtime
    LOL helps if I put the correct chart up....apologies for that.
    19h
    fxtime fxtime
    Just to clarify...it is the closing price that is important (obviously).