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  • Squawk / 10 hours ago
    Hypothesis Testing
    United Kingdom
    The first Tuesday of the calendar month has some oddities for of which is the following;
    Should the SPX close -3pts or more then a long on the Tuesday close should generate +5pts on the subsequent day (Wednesday obviously). 30yrs of data used.
    Win Percentage = 81%
    Max Continuous wins 14 Max Continuous Losing trades 2
    Average consecutive wins 4.11 over the 30yrs although this year it has skewed positively.
    Two ways to trade;
    Buy at Tuesday close IF SPX cash mkt is to close -3 or more looking for +5 the next day.
    Buy half at close on Tuesday IF SPX cash mkt is to close -3 or more and again a further half at market open on Wednesday assuming you have a lower entry price and the +5 hasn't already occurred with a gap up open.
    I can give you Kelly Ratios, Z Score, payout Ratio ...max and minima drawdowns but for such a basic trade it is of little use.
    Read the Squawk
    fxtime fxtime
    The flaw of the above obviously is that 30yrs of data is appalling as each year only gives 12 Tuesdays to test thus 30yr x 12 days...
  • Squawk / Yesterday at 10:02 GMT
    Senior Analyst /
    Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
    Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (October 5 - 9, 2015)

    Dominant bias: Bullish
    In spite of the large pullback that was seen on October 2, this pair remains a bull market. For the bull market to be rendered illogical, there is a need for the pair to breach the support levels 0.9600 and 0.9550 to the downside, staying below them. It would not be easy for bears to achieve this aim because the outlook on USD is bright for the month of October (and so is the outlook on CHF). What can be a noteworthy challenge for the bullish bias on USDCHF is the expected stamina in CHF itself, which would be visible on certain CHF pairs within the last two weeks of this month. In addition, a significant rally must happen on EURUSD before USDCHF can go south protractedly. Unless that happens, USDCHF would remain bullish, meaning that the last pullback might be another opportunity to join the uptrend.

    Read the Squawk
  • Calendar event / Friday at 15:59 GMT

    US Skechers

    Low Skechers record date for 3-for-1 stock split
  • 2d
    A trade pair : long Fcau due to Ipo Ferrari short Volkswagen
    Bmw and Daimler claimed that didn't use defeat devices so it's better to keep shorting...
  • 2d
    Adam Courtenay Adam Courtenay
    I don't think anyone saw that coming..
    Martin O'Rourke Martin O'Rourke
    USDJPY slips through 119.00 at 1335 GMT to test the 118.90 area. EURUSD at 1.1306.
    Martin O'Rourke Martin O'Rourke
    Listen to what Mads had to say in the immediate aftermath of the print. "There's pretty much nothing positive in this report," he says. More here:
  • Editor’s Picks / Friday at 13:16 GMT

    Volkswagen facing further European lawsuits

    The debacle surrounding Volkswagen's falsified emissions data continues to grow with French, German and Swiss lawyers taking action against the embattled carmaker. The new cases are centered on claims of fraud, deceit and placing peoples' health at risk. According to lawyer Axel Wegner, “from private investors alone, we have several hundred requests and I expect a large part of these will participate in the lawsuit". Italy's antitrust body has also opened an inquiry into Volkswagen after receiving complaints. Volkswagen shares are down by 49% for 2015.
    Read article on Bloomberg
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  • Calendar event / Friday at 12:30 GMT

    US U.S. Employment Report

    High Non-Farm Payrolls
    High Unemployment Rate
    High Avg Hourly Earnings (USD)
    High Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD)
    High Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M%
    High Participation Rate
    Med Overall Workweek
    Med Overall Workweek Net Chg
    Med Government Payrolls
    Med Private Payroll
    Med Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y%
  • Article / Friday at 12:00 GMT

    Steen's Chronicle: Meet Mr and Mrs Consensus

    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Steen's Chronicle: Meet Mr and Mrs Consensus
    The US, its policymakers, its investors and its analysts are in thrall to a foolish narrative – that China must and will fail. The consensus on this is as breathtaking as it is arrogant and they are all guilty of ignoring what's really going on in China, where emerging markets are actually headed and what medicine the American economy really needs.
    Read the article
    Gord Vancouver Gord Vancouver
    Outstanding assessment. Sad on your encountering a lack of any willingness to consider viewpoints and opportunities beyond what is expressed in/about either Silicon Valley or New York....
    PabloH PabloH
    Steen but you don't see any long term impact in productivity of the reforms carried in many European countries?