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  • Editor’s Picks / Yesterday at 20:59 GMT

    Fresh yuan drop would set cat among equity pigeons

    South China Morning Post
    Who has the courage to venture back into the stockmarkets? Falls that erased 30% to 40% from benchmark indices in Hong Kong and China have left bruised investors nursing one of the worst quarters since 2008. Many investors fear that the worst is yet to come and that further economic weakness or a sudden financial crisis in China could send shares plummeting and destroy what little confidence is left in a market where daily turnover rates are scraping near six-month lows. A Fed rate hike or a slowing China are real fears. But the biggest danger is further yuan devaluation, which would set the cat among the pigeons. China's markets will resume trading on October 8.
    Read article on South China Morning Post
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  • Squawk / Yesterday at 9:33 GMT
    Hypothesis Testing
    United Kingdom
    The first Tuesday of the calendar month has some oddities for of which is the following;
    Should the SPX close -3pts or more then a long on the Tuesday close should generate +5pts on the subsequent day (Wednesday obviously). 30yrs of data used.
    Win Percentage = 81%
    Max Continuous wins 14 Max Continuous Losing trades 2
    Average consecutive wins 4.11 over the 30yrs although this year it has skewed positively.
    Two ways to trade;
    Buy at Tuesday close IF SPX cash mkt is to close -3 or more looking for +5 the next day.
    Buy half at close on Tuesday IF SPX cash mkt is to close -3 or more and again a further half at market open on Wednesday assuming you have a lower entry price and the +5 hasn't already occurred with a gap up open.
    I can give you Kelly Ratios, Z Score, payout Ratio ...max and minima drawdowns but for such a basic trade it is of little use.
    Read the Squawk
    fxtime fxtime
    The flaw of the above obviously is that 30yrs of data is appalling as each year only gives 12 Tuesdays to test thus 30yr x 12 days...
  • Squawk / Saturday at 10:02 GMT
    Senior Analyst /
    Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
    Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (October 5 - 9, 2015)

    Dominant bias: Bullish
    In spite of the large pullback that was seen on October 2, this pair remains a bull market. For the bull market to be rendered illogical, there is a need for the pair to breach the support levels 0.9600 and 0.9550 to the downside, staying below them. It would not be easy for bears to achieve this aim because the outlook on USD is bright for the month of October (and so is the outlook on CHF). What can be a noteworthy challenge for the bullish bias on USDCHF is the expected stamina in CHF itself, which would be visible on certain CHF pairs within the last two weeks of this month. In addition, a significant rally must happen on EURUSD before USDCHF can go south protractedly. Unless that happens, USDCHF would remain bullish, meaning that the last pullback might be another opportunity to join the uptrend.

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  • Calendar event / Friday at 15:59 GMT

    US Skechers

    Low Skechers record date for 3-for-1 stock split
  • 2d
    A trade pair : long Fcau due to Ipo Ferrari short Volkswagen
    Bmw and Daimler claimed that didn't use defeat devices so it's better to keep shorting...