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  • Squawk / Friday at 21:19 GMT
    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    Quiet trading Friday in the US ahead of a long weekend (markets closed Monday for President’s day)

    The S&P 500 made a small gain, USD index rose (mainly because of a weak EUR); bond yields were down a touch.

    Note in the chart below that the USD index is not reacting to the rising prob. of a March 15 rate hike. Since 1994 the Fed has never moved unless market pricing in the lead up was at least 75%. Today March is priced at only 40%. Even June is marginal.

    But plenty of Fed speakers next week with a chance to “guide” the market.

    Meanwhile Pres.Trump is promising more “tremendous” announcements.

    The second chart shows the US fed funds curve in a global context. Only the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is priced to follow a similar track to higher rates.
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    seas seas
    Max, do you think the Kiwi can rally further?
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    Full FX Forecasts of all Majors and Australasians with complete Chart Analysis will be sent out as usual tomorrow morning
    Jim Earls Jim Earls
    I would argue that the PE in the 40's during 2000 was an aberration due to a 1st stage bubble of three being focused into only...
  • Trade view / Friday at 13:30 GMT
    Short term

    S&P 500 iron condor trade — #SaxoStrats

    Product Manager Futures and Options / Saxo Bank
    The S&P500 equity index has risen sharply this month and could be due for a short-term pullback or at least consolidation. Low levels of volatility on the index offers an opportunity for adopting an iron condor income strategy.
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  • Calendar event / Friday at 8:30 GMT

    SE CPI

    Med CPI, M/M%
    Med CPI, Y/Y%
  • 2d
    Martin O'Rourke Martin O'Rourke
    Consumer spending did indeed slide in the UK during January by 0.3% month-on-month after a 1.9% fall m/m in December. It supports the thesis that a post-Brexit...
  • Article / Friday at 8:00 GMT

    Morning Markets: Negative Trump effect spills over to Asia

    Morning Markets: Negative Trump effect spills over to Asia
    The demise of the Trump trade rally on Wall St on Thursday was felt across Asian markets today, with key bourses losing ground. The Nikkei headed sharply lower, with the high yen eroding confidence in the outlook for Japan's export-driven economy. Meanwhile in neighbouring South Korea, the vice-chairman of Samsung, Lee Jae-Yong, was arrested over bribery allegations; the uncertain future for the heir apparent of the global electronics giant weighed on its share price.
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