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  • Video / 06 August 2018 at 7:32 GMT

    From the Floor: Trading the trade war

    #SaxoStrats
    Saxo Bank Head of Equity Strategy Peter Garnry has assembled his ideal equities basket for investing amidst the current Sino-US trade war, whose effects continue to be felt in the forex, equities, and commodities spaces.
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  • Squawk / 03 August 2018 at 11:34 GMT
    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    PBOC clamping down on CNY speculation? The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has just announced that it will require a reserve ratio of 20% for financial institutions for forex forwards trading, a sign of increased caution from Chinese officialdom as the USDCNY reaches close to the high for the cycle at just ahead of 7.00 and the officially designated RMB basket has fallen close to the low for the cycle from 2017 as well. The rules are to take effect as of Monday - seems there is a risk of this overshadowing the implications of the US jobs report unless these are particularly surprising. USDCNY is already a percent off today's intraday highs and USDCNH evne more so...
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    1y
    John J Hardy John J Hardy
    An added point - plenty of focus on next Tuesday's China reserves figures for July - the first full month of CNY weakening. As I wrote in...
  • Article / 03 August 2018 at 10:40 GMT

    EM FX Weekly: The bounce may not last

    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    EM FX Weekly: The bounce may not last
    Global investors shifted into a risk-positive move over the mid-summer weeks, strongly bidding up some EM assets. Our question now is whether the bounce has much hope of lasting with Chinese markets in a deep funk amid the open question of whether Beijing will allow a major devaluation of its currency.
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  • Article / 03 August 2018 at 7:41 GMT

    FX Update: USD firm ahead of payrolls, earnings data

    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    FX Update: USD firm ahead of payrolls, earnings data
    The Bank of England waxed more hawkish than expected, but the market largely ignored its message as the closing window for a Brexit deal dominates the narrative. Elsewhere, risk appetite and the US dollar have surged ahead of the latest payrolls and especially the earnings data.
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  • Article / 30 July 2018 at 12:46 GMT

    The real war is for dollar hegemony

    Head of Macro Analysis / Saxo Bank
    France
    The real war is for dollar hegemony
    President Trump has been very vocal about the Chinese government's alleged devaluation of its currency, but he's wrong. The CNY exchange rate is broadly in line with Chinese fundamentals, and the real debate behind the trade war soundbites concerns the de-dollarisation of the world economy.
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  • Article / 29 June 2018 at 14:04 GMT

    EM FX Weekly: Focus on China on recent CNY slide

    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    EM FX Weekly: Focus on China on recent CNY slide
    China has seized the market’s attention by allowing a sharp slide in the renminbi over the past two weeks, as investors ponder whether this is merely a signal that China is no longer interested in seeing its currency strengthen versus the official reference basket or if it is “weaponising” the renminbi in the trade showdown with the US.
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