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  • 1y
    Patto Patto
    So this must mean if the Fed drove the term premium down thru bond buying they could push it up again thru sales - correct ? If...
    1y
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    Yes, correct Patto. But don’t forget the term premium also includes an inflation risk element. So if the “bond vigilantes” got the idea the Fed was not...
  • 1y
    Alan M Alan M
    On the desktop trading application there should be BTP,OAT and 2,5, 10 year german CFDs? But FWIW in my experience shorting any of these products just results...
    1y
    normbay normbay
    Thanks Alan - is that in a day-trade timeframe? I am looking considerably longer...
    1y
    Alan M Alan M
    No problems, In my experience its been more medium term, intra week usually. Made 2 attempts to get in on the rising yield story so far this...
  • 1y
    Jim Earls Jim Earls
    EFFR is only 1.42%. 3 Month Bill-1.59%, 6 Month Bill-1.80%. The fact is this Fed Reserve is already behind the curve. By the time...
    1y
    Patto Patto
    That would be just the kick USD needs Jim.
    1y
    Morten Olby Morten Olby
    Very good analysis of the oddity of USD these days. Solid work, Max. Thank you.
  • Article / 02 February 2018 at 0:10 GMT

    Tail risks priced out of bond markets

    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    Tail risks priced out of bond markets
    There have been subdued inflation readings this week from the Eurozone and other major economies, forming a familiar pattern. Nevertheless there are overheating fears for the Eurozone.
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    1y
    Patto Patto
    How would you like to be a holder of that 100-year bond Austria issued last year at 2.1%. It has a duration of 43 years. So if...
    1y
    Sultan73 Sultan73
    Well said,
  • 1y
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    You’re saying USDJPY will hit 108 soon Jay ? or EURUSD ?
    1y
    Patto Patto
    From the look of that inflation chart, after you take out energy prices to get the "core" rate, it looks like the only thing holding inflation positive...
  • Article / 05 January 2018 at 1:02 GMT

    USD traders ignore rate differentials and look over the rainbow

    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    USD traders ignore rate differentials and look over the rainbow
    Inflation has been moribund in the US, the Eurozone and Japan, so why has the US dollar been singled out and sold off? And why have bullish views about USD proven to be so wide of the mark, especially given US rate rises, tax cuts and GDP growth? Max McKegg explores these questions in this analysis.
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    2y
    Kashif khawja Kashif khawja
    Appreciate this food for thought. I will appreciate your comments as to how unexpected market shocks can shatter this scenario.
  • 2y
    Patto Patto
    The traditionalists on the FOMC (like Yellen) will be aware of the signalling power of the yield curve. But it is a long way from inverting, which...
    2y
    Treve Treve
    “This time it’s different” – the most dangerous phrase in a trader’s vocabulary.
    2y
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    Both fair comments. The FOMC may well feel no need for immediate concern but it’s a large Committee and there will be different points of view. Besides,...
  • Article / 14 November 2017 at 7:08 GMT

    COT: Ongoing expansion in energy sector longs, metals mixed

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    COT: Ongoing expansion in energy sector longs, metals mixed
    The delayed COT reports for the week to November 7 show a continued expansion in longs in energy. Metals were mixed, and gold was bought for the first time in eight weeks. In FX, the dollar short was reduced even further on broad-based IMM futures selling, with the euro the exception.
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    2y
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Correction: The commodities table produced a correct net position on NatGas but the changes were incorrect
    2y
    Logich Logich
    Any idea why Coffee opens up on a very negative tone today, Ole Hansen?
    2y
    JbKingTrader JbKingTrader
    Ole, the charts show that oil's net position is not yet the 1-yr high, yet they are highlighted and the data says true. Can you please clarify...