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  • 3d
    ashrafj1 ashrafj1
    so what is the expected for Cotton this week ?
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Funds increased bullish oil bets in Brent crude to a record 481,399 lots last week. The combined gross-long in WTI and Brent exceeded 1 billion barrels for...
    matsuri matsuri
    so when will correction come? such large exposure risks unexpected slip of price.
  • Squawk / 17 February 2017 at 21:19 GMT
    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    Quiet trading Friday in the US ahead of a long weekend (markets closed Monday for President’s day)

    The S&P 500 made a small gain, USD index rose (mainly because of a weak EUR); bond yields were down a touch.

    Note in the chart below that the USD index is not reacting to the rising prob. of a March 15 rate hike. Since 1994 the Fed has never moved unless market pricing in the lead up was at least 75%. Today March is priced at only 40%. Even June is marginal.

    But plenty of Fed speakers next week with a chance to “guide” the market.

    Meanwhile Pres.Trump is promising more “tremendous” announcements.

    The second chart shows the US fed funds curve in a global context. Only the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is priced to follow a similar track to higher rates.
    Read the Squawk
    Jim Earls Jim Earls
    I would argue that the PE in the 40's during 2000 was an aberration due to a 1st stage bubble of three being focused into only...
    seas seas
    I would tend to agree with that. There are new efficiencies and economies of scale to take into account though.
    seas seas
    And that can feed the monkey.
  • Article / 13 February 2017 at 9:21 GMT

    COT: Record longs in WTI and copper reduced — #SaxoStrats

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    COT: Record longs in WTI and copper reduced — #SaxoStrats
    Hedge funds reduced their overall commodity exposure for a second week up until February 7. New short selling of oil and copper helped reduce record longs. Demand for precious metals continued, while strong buying was seen in corn and wheat before the monthly supply-and-demand report.
    Read the article
  • Squawk / 09 February 2017 at 14:32 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    The World Agriculture Supply and Demand report for February from the US Department of Agriculture is due later at 17:00 GMT. Surveys are pointing towards a lowering of US and global soybean ending stocks while only minor adjustments to corn and wheat are expected. Funds were sellers in the week ending January 31 and this has helped attract some short-covering during the past couple of days.
    Read the Squawk
  • 06 February
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Funds increased bullish Brent crude oil bets by 24,515 lots to 472,867 lots in week to Jan 31. Close to the December 13 record of 478,000...
  • 30 January
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    The combined net-long WTI and Brent crude oil rose 10k to new record of 844k in week to Jan 24. A 14k reduction in Brent crude...
    30 January
    TLtrader TLtrader
    Investors should exercise caution when Bullish is extreme, for historical prices will fall within a relatively short time frame
    See attached link.
    30 January
    Santa Rita Mark Santa Rita Mark
    Also interested in long cocoa entry point if you care to comment.
  • 23 January
    Santa Rita Mark Santa Rita Mark
    Sir, I would love to read you detailed perspectives on cocoa when that might be possible Thanks for considering.
    23 January
    Morris Morris
    A leading relationship means as the the commodity price bottoms you should have already seen increase in long positions and short positions to have bottomed! The inverse...
    28 January
    Pandorra Pandorra
    Ole, could you please check COT report for Brent Amer/Eur, managed money positions on tools webpage .. Looks like there smth wrong. Thanks
  • 09 January
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Funds increased bullish Brent crude oil bets by 3,463 lots to 458k in week to Jan 3.
    Funds maintained a combined (WTI+Brent) record long oil position of 790...
    09 January
    John Roberti John Roberti
    Ole, How can we explain the drop of 1,50 dollar in oil prices today without apparently any news from the front and despite the increase in long...
    10 January
    tellechea19 tellechea19
    Oil break under 52$. But according to the article the felling is still bullish (Long term). Is this a price correction?