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  • Squawk / Wednesday at 12:45 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Crude oil trading modestly higher on continued geopolitical risks and ahead of today’s weekly stock report from the EIA at 1430 GMT.
    Iraqi forces continue to recapture territory from the Kurds while shipping sources say that flows through the Kurdish pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan have dropped sharply to around 225,000 barrels per day from around 500,000 bpd on Tuesday.
    Oil received a lift yesterday after the API said US oil stocks fell 7.13m barrels last week, more than double what surveys expect the EIA report will show later today. The gains however were somewhat hampered by a rise in both gasoline and distillates and if confirmed by the EIA the latter would represents the first rise in seven weeks.
    NOTE: Export, imports and off-shore crude oil production are all likely to have been impacted by Hurricane Nate which hit the Gulf of Mexico during the reporting week.
    Updates to follow below once the report is out.
    Read the Squawk
    2d
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    US crude oil inventories dropped by 5.7m barrels last week primarily due to Hurricane Nate triggering a 1.15m barrel/day reduction in production. Distillates and gasoline both saw...
    2d
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Charts
    2d
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    In conclusion: Crude oil inventories dropped with lower production due to Hurricane Nate and second lowest net-import on record more than offsetting a big drop in...
  • 12 October
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Limited market reaction to the EIA report despite seeing the API data being wrong on all three. Hurricane Nate played its part on trade, production and stocks....
    12 October
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Charts
  • Squawk / 12 October 2017 at 7:14 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Crude oil trading softer ahead of the 'Weekly Petroleum Status Report' from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) at 1700CET. This in reaction to a surprise rise in oil and distillate stocks being reported by the API last night (table attached).
    Before then at 1000 CET we get the monthly 'Oil Market Report' from the International Energy Agency (IEA). It was last months report which helped send oil to its recent peak before two consecutive bearish stock report triggered the correction that lasted up until last Friday.
    IEA comments will be posted below once out.
    Link: https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/
    Read the Squawk
    12 October
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Crude oil trading a tad softer as the IEA says oil inventory decline will halt in 2018. A 1.5M b/d rise in non-Opec production leaving no room...
    12 October
    BHASKAR REDDY BHASKAR REDDY
    thank you sir
    13 October
    Martinez Martinez
    Hello Ole,How is your health and work doing?
  • 04 October
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Oil and gasoline both higher following EIA report which showed a 6M barrel drop in crude stocks and a 1.6M barrel increase in gasoline. Distillate stocks declined...
    04 October
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Surging US crude oil export once again the big outlier in this weeks report. With additional barrels being moved into the global market it should further reduce...
    04 October
    JJb JJb
    I guess I’m out of these dodgy price reactions on Wednesday. Anything is a reason to sell. I guess US also makes money by exporting some of...
  • Article / 27 September 2017 at 12:59 GMT

    Crude oil: Will EIA spring an API style surprise?

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Crude oil: Will EIA spring an API style surprise?
    Crude oil, led by Brent, trades softer ahead of the Weekly Petroleum Status Report from the EIA at 14:30 GMT. This follows the API's surprising statement yesterday that oil stocks had fallen and gasoline stocks risen last week. Both of these changes contradict what EIA surveys are projecting.
    Read the article
    27 September
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Further oil market news ahead of EIA has come from the Iraqi parliament which has given the PM mandate to deploy troops to the disputed region of...
    27 September
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Record crude exports sees oil stock down by 1.8 million barrels. Gasoline stocks rise while distillates drop by less than expected. Products trading lower with the WTI/RBOB...
    27 September
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    The biggest news in today's report was apart from the fact that the EIA replicated the API, the big jump in crude oil exports. The WTI/Brent spread...
  • Article / 26 September 2017 at 12:06 GMT

    Brent pauses ahead of $60 after Kurdish spike – #SaxoStrats

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Brent pauses ahead of $60 after Kurdish spike – #SaxoStrats
    Brent crude has reached a 26-month high as the month-long rally was given further momentum from a threat to oil supplies being cut from Kurdistan in Northern Iraq. A widening Brent backwardation is currently attracting investors looking to capture the roll yield. WTI, meanwhile, has attracted buyers looking to close the widening gap to Brent.
    Read the article
    26 September
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    TURKEY'S FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS ALL OPTIONS ON TABLE IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN IRAQ REFERENDUM, INCLUDING A JOINT OPERATION WITH IRAQ (Reuters)
  • Squawk / 20 September 2017 at 13:16 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    An unseasonal rally driven by unseasonably high refinery margins in response to falling fuel stocks. That's what we are currently witnessing in the oil market. Hence the increased focus on today's inventory report from the EIA at 1430 GMT. Not least after the API yesterday surprised with a smaller-than-expected crude oil build while fuel stocks slumped by more than expected.
    If the slump in Gasoline and distillate stocks are repeated by the EIA we could see stock levels on both fall below the five-year average.
    The price of oil is likely to remain supported as long refinery margins remain elevated. Overall its our belief that we are getting close to the upper end of what can be expected at this stage. Brent will be facing stiff resistance towards 57.50/b while WTI after several failed attempts may have a go above the July high at $50.50/b.
    I will post updates below once the report is out
    Read the Squawk
    20 September
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Crude oil stocks rose while fuel stocks dropped by more than expected. Both import and export of crude oil continued to recover while refinery demand rose by...
    20 September
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Charts
  • Article / 13 September 2017 at 13:04 GMT

    Oil rallies on upbeat reports from Opec and IEA —#SaxoStrats

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Oil rallies on upbeat reports from Opec and IEA —#SaxoStrats
    Crude oil trades higher ahead of what is likely to be another volatile weekly status report from the EIA. Monthly oil market reports from Opec and the IEA have painted a rosier picture for oil, with demand growth rising and the global overhang of oil and fuel supplies beginning to approach the long-term trend.
    Read the article
    13 September
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    A monster draw in gasoline stocks of 8.4m barrels (biggest since 1990) while crude oil stocks 'only' jumped by 5.9m barrels as imports declined and export rose....
    13 September
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Charts
    17 September
    Giorgos Giorgos
    Hello Ole , Harvey gave some trading opportunities , i am now in the WTI Brent spread trade and before that i noticed a huge ...
  • Article / 07 September 2017 at 15:17 GMT

    Crude oil facing resistance after Harvey rally —#SaxoStrats

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Crude oil facing resistance after Harvey rally —#SaxoStrats
    The diverging performance between WTI and Brent crude that emerged before Hurricane Harvey has resumed this week. Brent crude has rallied further after breaking the downtrend from January only to find resistance today at the May high at $54.67/barrel. A weaker dollar provides some underlying support, while fundamental support is likely to be short-lived.
    Read the article
  • Squawk / 23 August 2017 at 12:50 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Crude oil trading weaker but still within the range that has been established during the past week. Following the Libya production on and then off news yesterday the market awaits the 'Weekly Petroleum Status Report' from the EIA at 1430 GMT. Another reduction in crude oil stocks has been off-set by expectations of rising fuel stocks.
    Other numbers to look out for are exports which has the potential of rising given WTI's current elevated discount to Brent. Imports from major Opec producers could also attract some attention, especially if a slowdown is being reported.
    Production estimates will also receive some attention after last weeks strong 79,000 b/d rise helped off-set what otherwise was a bullish report.
    Following the release i will post comments and charts below.
    Read the Squawk
    23 August
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Both crude and gasoline stocks dropped in line with surveys. Refinery demand slowed while gasoline demand remained strong. Production rose 26k b/d. Gasoline initially trades higher in...
    23 August
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Charts
    03 September
    MaksimYaroslav MaksimYaroslav
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