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  • Article / 06 June 2018 at 12:12 GMT

    Crude oil market caught in a flood of conflicting news

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Crude oil market caught in a flood of conflicting news
    WTI Crude oil, down 10% from its recent peak, must currently absorb a lot of conflicting news. Venezuela's output is in free fall; the US has asked Saudi Arabia and others to raise production; there's a widening discount to Brent and solid demand growth is starting to be questioned. Some of these developments threaten to break the harmony within Opec as the members prepare to meet on June 22.
    Read the article
    06 June
    ambro ambro
    Ole, interesting, thanks a lot, any idea for how long the brent wti spread can stay at these levels?
    06 June
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Charts and tables concerning the EIA weekly stock report can be found on twitter @ole_s_hansen or #SaxoStrats
    06 June
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    @Ambro. US oil and fuel stocks saw its biggest weekly rise since 2008 last week according the EIA report just out. As long US crude oil production...
  • Squawk / 02 May 2018 at 11:59 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Crude oil is trading steady with WTI currently being stuck in a $66.60 to $70/b range. The Natanyahu surge on Monday proved temporary as the market concluded that he did not provide any information that wasn’t already known and which provided the basis for the 2015 nuclear deal. Instead the presentation was seen as a counter to European leaders who led by France's Emmanuel Macron and Germany's Angela Merkel have stepped up their attempts to persuade Trump to agree to an amendment instead of abandoning the nuclear deal on May 12. His decision remains a major binary event but today the focus has – at least temporary – moved back to hard data with the weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report due at 14:30 GMT.
    Last night the API reported a bigger-than-expected crude build which was off-set by another slump in distillates.
    As usual the report comprises multiple components with production, export/imports as well as Cushing stocks being potential market movers.
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    02 May
    matsuri matsuri
    it will be very interesting to see what will Trump do with the Iran deal, considering the fact that he made a clear statement that oil is...
    02 May
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Crude oil trades softer after the EIA reported a 6.2m barrel stock increase. Gasoline stocks rose by 1.2m barrels while distillates dropped 3.9m barrels. Production rose 33k...
    02 May
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    EIA charts
  • Squawk / 25 April 2018 at 15:00 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Crude oil: Robust reaction to an on paper bearish weekly inventory report from the US EIA. Crude oil and gasoline stocks rose while distillate stocks continued to drop. The crude oil build was driven by a continued rise (+46k b/d) in production and a drop in refinery demand. US role as a significant exporter of both crude oil and products were highlighted with the record 8.3 million b/d export of oil and products on par with what Saudi Arabia exported during January.
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  • Article / 28 March 2018 at 7:33 GMT

    Crude oil double top and EIA stock report in focus – #SaxoStrats

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Crude oil double top and EIA stock report in focus – #SaxoStrats
    Crude oil trades lower following the failure – so far – to break the January tops in WTI and Brent crude oil. The risk of a double top, combined with a bigger-than-expected jump in crude oil stocks reported by the API last night, renewed stock market weakness and a stronger dollar have all helped reverse some of last week\s strong gains.
    Read the article
    28 March
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    EIA results and initial market reaction
    28 March
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    EIA charts
    08 April
    Anatoly Vyacheslav Anatoly Vyacheslav
    This comment has been redacted
  • 21 March
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    EIA charts
    21 March
    matsuri matsuri
    Mr Ole, do you really think that Russia and Saudi Arabia would abandon the deal if sanctions are reintroduced? What would happen to oil prices if the...
    08 April
    Anatoly Vyacheslav Anatoly Vyacheslav
    This comment has been redacted
  • Article / 07 March 2018 at 10:38 GMT

    Fundamentals and Trump weigh on oil prices – #SaxoStrats

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Fundamentals and Trump weigh on oil prices – #SaxoStrats
    Crude oil has settled into a range as the price ebbs and flows with developments in global stocks. While oil fundamentals have softened, speculators maintain a strong belief in higher prices. This belief risks being tested should Trump go ahead with planned tariffs on steel and aluminium as it raises the risk of a trade war that would damage growth and punish stocks.
    Read the article
    07 March
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Crude oil inventories rose by 2.4m barrels while both gasoline and distillate stocks were lower. Production rose another 86k b/d while stock withdrawals at Cushing slowed to...
    07 March
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    EIA charts
    07 March
    The Grinch The Grinch
    Ole, thank you.
    In past posts, you've highlighted the lower grade of shale compared to crude. How do you see this impacting markets?
  • Squawk / 22 February 2018 at 10:34 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Renewed crude oil weakness ahead of EIA stock report at 1600 GMT. US crude oil inventories probably rose by 2.9 million barrels last week according a Bloomberg survey (attached). The IEA sees demand growth being covered by non-Opec suppliers over the next two years thereby leaving limited room for the Opec+ group to step away from the deal to curb production. While we believe the ceiling has been found we still need confirmation that a bottom has been established. The key support levels to focus on remain $61/b on Brent and $58/b on WTI.

    More on this and other commodities in our monthly webinar today at 1330 CET. Sign up here: https://t.co/FpoQegvifm
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    22 February
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    The US is exporting away its rising production. Last week net import slumped below 5m b/d as exports surged past 2m b/d
    22 February
    Edgaras Edgaras
    Well imports / exports adds quite a bit of a bearish tone?
    22 February
    matsuri matsuri
    Cushing inventories decrease because the USA is exporting oil and gaining market share that OPEC will be forced to get back later. what is more the USA...
  • Article / 15 February 2018 at 11:13 GMT

    Crude oil higher but correction risks remain – #SaxoStrats

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Crude oil higher but correction risks remain – #SaxoStrats
    After falling by more than 12% and after almost reaching our downside target for this quarter, crude oil is showing the first signs of stabilising. However, a weaker dollar driven by increased concerns about the US economic outlook is not a strong enough foundation from where a price recovery can be established.
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  • Squawk / 08 February 2018 at 9:03 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Brent crude oil has reached its first technical target based on the Head&Shoulder breakout. Unlikely in our opinion to halt the market slide given the emerging focus on a seasonal slowdown in demand and run away US production growth and funds having to reduce longs amid the deteriorating technical outlook.
    Read the Squawk
    08 February
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    In our Q1 outlook we highlighted the reasons for potentially seeing Brent crude return to $60 before settling into a $60 to $70 range. These reasons have...
    08 February
    The Grinch The Grinch
    Range seems reasonable in the longer term. However, a dip below $60 may be on the cards should Saudi start fighting back over lost market share.
    08 February
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Natural gas stocks dropped 119 bcf to 2078 bcf last week (-112bcf was exp). The deficit to the 5-year average shrinks to 15.9% from a 17.5% last...
  • Squawk / 07 February 2018 at 11:45 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Crude Oil has given back some of yesterday's late gains as we await the "Weekly Petroleum Status Report" from the EIA at 1530 GMT. Bouncing stocks and a surprise weekly inventory drop reported by the API supported the late sprint following a day mostly spent on the defensive. Not least after the EIA in their monthly Short Term Energy Outlook once again raised non-Opec production while keeping global demand steady. They now see US production already exceeding 11 million b/d this November, one year earlier than previously expected.
    The short term outlook remains challenged by a seasonal slowdown in demand due to refinery maintenance in Europe, Asia and now also the US. Funds holding a record long have been net-sellers this week with the risk of more to come as the price moves further away from the recent peak
    Table covering API results and EIA survey attached.
    Read the Squawk
    07 February
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    EIA report showed rising stocks of oil, gasoline and products while production jumped by 332k b/d to reach 10.3m b/d. Results and initial market reaction attached
    07 February
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    EIA report in charts
    07 February
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    BBG comment: Crude inventories rose less than expected, up 1.9 million barrels, as higher refiner demand more than offset weaker exports. Cushing stocks continue to drain, and...