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  • 2d
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    A bigger than expected decline in crude oil stocks being off-set by an equally bigger build in gasoline stocks. Production jumped 73k bpd while refinery demand slowed...
    2d
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    EIA report in charts
  • 06 December
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    EIA report in charts
    06 December
    AIRLINE AIRLINE
    Thanks Ole, agree on what you write. Love your charts. Keep up the good work!
  • Article / 29 November 2017 at 10:16 GMT

    Oil softer on US stock rise and Opec nerves – #SaxoStrats

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Oil softer on US stock rise and Opec nerves – #SaxoStrats
    Oil has been drifting lower the day before Opec ministers sit down in Vienna to drum out an extension cut deal. Not least after the API last night reported a surprise build up in weekly US stocks. Much is at stake in Vienna with Russia seemingly not yet prepared to commit to a nine-month extension without a proper exit strategy.
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    29 November
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    The EIA has reported a bigger than expected 3.4 million barrel decline in crude stocks last week. This as supplies from Canada were disrupted through the Keystone...
    29 November
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    EIA charts
    30 November
    TastyTrend TastyTrend
    Thanks Ole, Helpful like every time..
  • 22 November
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Correction: The rise in export was not a new record but up 462k b/d on previous week.
    22 November
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Charts below
    23 November
    Олег Комбаев Олег Комбаев
    Thanks. Ole could you clarify, is backwardation positive or negative factor for oil now?
  • Squawk / 22 November 2017 at 8:03 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Crude oil trading higher with WTI extending its gains to highest since July 2015. WTI is leading the rally with prompt spreads almost flipping into backwardation. A bigger than expected weekly stock draw reported by the API last night and not least an ongoing pipeline disruption from Canada to the U.S. are the main drivers.
    According to Reuters TransCanada Corp said it will cut deliveries by at least 85 percent on its 590k bpd Keystone crude pipeline through the end of November. The pipeline, which links Alberta’s oil sands to U.S. refineries, was shut last week after a 5,000-barrel spill in South Dakota.
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    22 November
    matsuri matsuri
    I am of the opinion that the higher it goes the harder it falls...still short on WTI
    22 November
    AIRLINE AIRLINE
    Me too, Matsuri.

    Crude is fully priced in with regards to OPEC's production cuts and fundamental issues.

    I think OPEC has no choice to continue its production cuts. ...
  • Squawk / 15 November 2017 at 10:30 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Crude oil markets got spooked yesterday by the down revision to 2018 demand growth from the IEA and the weekly inventory report from the API. Instead of a 2.4 million barrel drop as expected in today's EIA report the API saw a 6.5 million barrel rise last week.
    Both WTI and Brent sold off but have yet to retrace 38.2% of the latest geo-political price spike which began around mid-October with the fall being cushion by the dollar slump.
    The time spreads (using Jan-18 vs Dec-18) had already begun to weaken before yesterdays sell-off. We mentioned recently that an elevated and increasingly unsustainable bullish hedge fund bet at the front of the oil curve had created a false sense of market tightness.
    Both crude oil are likely to find support relatively soon with traders not yet prepared to surrender the geo-risk premium given current developments in the Middle East. However Brent crude oil at $60 increasingly looks like the line the sand below which we could see selling accelerating
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    15 November
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    A relative subdued reaction to the weekly EIA report. On balance the report was bearish but the market had already sold off following the API report last...
    15 November
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Charts
  • Squawk / 08 November 2017 at 14:55 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Oil trades lower for a second day as the focus turns from Saudi political risks to the 'Weekly Petroleum Status Report' at 1530 GMT. Fear of long liquidation from funds holding a record long in Brent have yet to materialise with the retracement so far only amounting to 38.2% of the spike since last Friday.
    The API yesterday reported a smaller than expected crude stock decline of 1.6m barrels. Surveys ahead of the EIA report are pointing towards a 2.5m barrels drop.
    EIA results and comments will be posted below.
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    08 November
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Crude oil stocks jumped 2.2m bbls last week due to a 1.3m b/d slump in exports. Against this both gasoline and distillates drew by 3.3m bbl which...
    08 November
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Charts
  • Article / 01 November 2017 at 11:02 GMT

    Oil riding a wave of price-supportive news and data

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Oil riding a wave of price-supportive news and data
    Crude oil continues its ascent with recent news and data on growth, supply and demand all providing the bulls with little to worry about. Opec maintains high compliance to its production cuts while US production growth looks overstated at a time of falling inventories. Next up, the weekly inventory report from the US Energy Information Administration
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    01 November
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    The Fracking Boom’s Midlife Crisis. Bloomberg seeking answers to this question: With much of the easy oil already pumped, what’s next for shale? https://goo.gl/agQCPw
    01 November
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Oil and fuel stocks all dropped by less than what the API report had led us to believe. US net import of crude oil dropped to a...
    01 November
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    EIA report in charts
  • Article / 25 October 2017 at 10:11 GMT

    Multiple support but no break for oil ahead of EIA

    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Multiple support but no break for oil ahead of EIA
    Brent crude oil trades near the top of its range ahead of the weekly stock report from the EIA. Synchronised global growth, robust demand for oil, high compliance and geopolitical risks are providing support. Capping the upside for now is a record fund long and concerns that current prices could accelerate non-Opec production further.
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    25 October
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    This comment has been redacted
    25 October
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Crude oil and products trading a tad higher following the EIA report which more or less replicated the findings from yesterday's API report. Production returned to normal...
    25 October
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Charts
  • Squawk / 18 October 2017 at 12:45 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Crude oil trading modestly higher on continued geopolitical risks and ahead of today’s weekly stock report from the EIA at 1430 GMT.
    Iraqi forces continue to recapture territory from the Kurds while shipping sources say that flows through the Kurdish pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan have dropped sharply to around 225,000 barrels per day from around 500,000 bpd on Tuesday.
    Oil received a lift yesterday after the API said US oil stocks fell 7.13m barrels last week, more than double what surveys expect the EIA report will show later today. The gains however were somewhat hampered by a rise in both gasoline and distillates and if confirmed by the EIA the latter would represents the first rise in seven weeks.
    NOTE: Export, imports and off-shore crude oil production are all likely to have been impacted by Hurricane Nate which hit the Gulf of Mexico during the reporting week.
    Updates to follow below once the report is out.
    Read the Squawk
    18 October
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    US crude oil inventories dropped by 5.7m barrels last week primarily due to Hurricane Nate triggering a 1.15m barrel/day reduction in production. Distillates and gasoline both saw...
    18 October
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    Charts
    18 October
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    In conclusion: Crude oil inventories dropped with lower production due to Hurricane Nate and second lowest net-import on record more than offsetting a big drop in...