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  • Squawk / 15 March 2017 at 3:45 GMT
    Head Scalper / The Island Group
    United States
    Doesn't anyone trade the long bond here?
    Read the Squawk
  • 1y
    seas seas
    Do you think we could have a bounce tomorrow considering the hammering it's taken recently?
  • 2y
    Market Predator Market Predator
    Interesting to see post Trump divergence between: Russel and Nasdaq (tech Stocks)
    2y
    Georgio Stoev Georgio Stoev
    We are working on it
    2y
    Market Predator Market Predator
    I got you, perfect :)
  • Article / 11 November 2016 at 13:30 GMT

    Going up against Lady Luck

    Hypothesis Testing
    United Kingdom
    Going up against Lady Luck
    Back in January I suggested that as a measure of success we should compare our net profits to what Lady Luck would have shown in the year to date. So in truth how did we all compare? Did we earn in percentage terms more than a toss of a coin?
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    2y
    zefy zefy
    LOL. Indeed!!
    2y
    fxtime fxtime
    ZEFY did you do the SP500 short and usdjpy short on Friday? I did and am awaiting a result today I hope !
    2y
    zefy zefy
    Only EURUSD today.
  • Article / 26 September 2016 at 13:58 GMT

    Volatility Update: VIX back in the grind

    Product Manager, Options Trader, Educator
    Denmark
    Volatility Update: VIX back in the grind
    Without any news for the market to process, we are back to a state of depressed volatility. This means that the premium for protection is also quite low, which is something that equity investors should keep in mind.
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    2y
    Georgio Stoev Georgio Stoev
    if Trump wins, his platform has pretty aggressive fiscal policies in place which could increase the cost of borrowing (yield goes up).
    2y
    Market Predator Market Predator
    OK, Trump = Hawk :)
    2y
    Georgio Stoev Georgio Stoev
    HRC has some pretty hawkish fiscal positions herself but the Street is looking at Trump as the non-friendly Wall Street guy
  • 2y
    vsquare007 vsquare007
    Do you mind advising the ticket code for the bond to be clear ?
    2y
    Georgio Stoev Georgio Stoev
    Sure- in the option chain of the saxo trader (downloadable) please type in OZB symbol to bring the options for 30-year US Treasuries. This should bring the...
  • Squawk / 04 May 2016 at 13:17 GMT
    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    Recession risk is rising with big allocation implications - today's ADP report is the worst in three years! Add to this that the Fed's broad based employment index (# 19 data points) is also making new lows and we have potential for a dramatic change in MAIN MACRO concern: I.e: concern will be recession risk

    Classic economic theory reads that when the labour market turns sour so do markets

    Add to this: economic data ALREADY has been weak for a long period - unlike EUR which is doing "better than"

    This means that we have overweight in US fixed income - trade was done FOMC meeting in this link:

    https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/fomc-anoouncementfed-drops-reference-to-international-concern-but-maintains-strong-domestic-g-7531898

    Action: If nonfarm payrolls on Friday confirms today's ADP number then we could start a big move towards NEW LOWS in US yields.... this would also help EURUSD and gold higher, but the main move would be in fixed income where the market is net SHORT
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    2y
    Vitor Oliveira Vitor Oliveira
    Thank you! Maybe another trading opportunity in the cards. On the other hand, since we have US elections, this article deserves some attention imho > http://seekingalpha.com/article/3971118-odds-president-trump-rise-usd-implications?isDirectRoadblock=false&uprof=44
  • Squawk / 27 April 2016 at 18:32 GMT
    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Denmark
    FOMC anoouncement

    Fed drops reference to international concern, but maintains "strong" domestic growth w an undershooting inflation.

    This leaves door open for June hike, but market firmly believes in December....as most likely next hike..

    Market sees no "direct reference" and feels vindicated on reluctant Fed....

    Stocks small up, eurusd unchanged and bonds at high of the day..

    OVERALL:

    Big non-event but a confirmation that FOMC in no hurry to move.

    My call remains the US will flirt with recession this year - Saxo thinks there is 60% chance, which leads us to OVERWEIGHT 10y and 30 yr bonds..

    Buy T-bond 30 years futures @ 162.00 with stop below 160.00 we see test of NEW LOWS in yield driven by weak consumption, low inflation and a global economy slowing down.

    Steen
    Read the Squawk