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Dan Larsen
Saxo Bank’s head of FX options Dan Juhl Larsen covers such topics as rolling positions, long term versus short term views, and simple strategies and positioning.

Currency crosses

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  • Article / 49 minutes ago

    Fed flirts with four rate hikes, but US dollar drops

    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    Fed flirts with four rate hikes, but US dollar drops
    The FOMC has unanimously voted for the first rate hike of the year to take effect. Markets had anticipated more urgency from the FOMC in its policy statement. So bullish positions in the US dollar, bond yields and stocks were cut when the Fed failed to deliver a projections of four rate hikes over 2018.
    Read the article
    Patto Patto
    Nice work Max.............But on the inflation question, surely the Fed has taken into account the "base effects" when coming up with their projections? I can't see an...
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    Patto, My Crude Oil analysis below
    Patto Patto
    that would do it !
  • Squawk / Yesterday at 18:08 GMT
    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    FOMC meeting: Fed raises rates and steepens the path of expected rate hikes for 2020 in dot plot, but not for the 2018 time frame. The longer term "terminal rate" seen relatively unchanged. The wording of the statement sees minor changes, with a small downgrade to observations for current state of economy, but confident sounding on eventual path. In accompanying materials, GDP forecast for 2018 and 2019 revised a bit higher, as was PCE core for 2019 and 2020 (to 2.1% from 2.0%). More to follow on market reaction -see comparison of statements (January to March) attached.
    Read the Squawk
    John J Hardy John J Hardy
    end of day is first key and then end of week second key ...
    Market Predator Market Predator
    It seems Mr. Hansen is right in his chart. Hike means Gold growth.
    Coco84 Coco84
    not just the USD behaves the same as after the last Fed meeting, but all US indices look awfully similar to right before the correction
  • 10h
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    The EIA replicated the findings of the API report in showing draws across the board while stocks at Cushing rose by less than expected. Crude oil production...
    Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
    EIA charts
    matsuri matsuri
    Mr Ole, do you really think that Russia and Saudi Arabia would abandon the deal if sanctions are reintroduced? What would happen to oil prices if the...
  • Squawk / Yesterday at 11:55 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Crude oil continues to rally with a potential Iran disruption being sited as the driver. Struggling with this assumption considering the 1.8 m b/d the OPEC+ group could unleash to counter. Probably more a reaction to the technical breakout of an increasingly tight range.

    Our monthly commodities outlook will be live at 13:30 CET. You can sign up here:
    Read the Squawk
  • Article / Yesterday at 11:30 GMT

    Weekly Bond Update: Why banks deserve a second look – #SaxoStrats

    Manager, Global Sales Trading / Saxo Bank
    Weekly Bond Update: Why banks deserve a second look – #SaxoStrats
    In a low-interest environment, opportunities for yield-hungry investors seem few and far between. But one sector that could provide a useful comparative advantage is financial sector bonds. Tougher regulations and bigger capital adequacy constraints since the GFC mean that they're now in far better shape than before the Lehman bubble exploded.
    Read the article
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