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President Trump looks likely to score a rare legislative victory this week as it looks increasingly likely his tax reform package will finally fall into place. Victory of another sort is expected in South Africa where the reformist Cyril Ramaphosa is leading the contest for the ANC leadership.

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  • Article / 3 hours ago

    FX Update: Year whimpering to a close — #SaxoStrats

    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    FX Update: Year whimpering to a close — #SaxoStrats
    The FX market is closing a calendar year with the greatest level of complacency in history as implied volatility in the options market suggests little anticipation of any exchange rates moving any time soon. That’s usually a sign of impending danger, though “impending” is a very imprecise term.
    Read the article
    Dance like nobody's watching Dance like nobody's watching
    Long before this mkt has been broken, just can't be openly admitted as primer duty of Broker is to sell market in whatever condition it is.
  • 3h
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    There is no crystal ball - the market will tell us, all we can do is trade with discipline and patience.
    jcsousa jcsousa
    That's for sure. I only ask because i thought that you may be had some price indication that i didn't
    kochlik kochlik
    Hi Max, does the fresh new highs in COT long EUR affect this idea/view?
  • Squawk / Saturday at 16:05 GMT
    Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Commitments of Traders in week to December 12 covering managed money positions in commodities, IMM currency futures, bonds and stock index futures.
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / Friday at 21:45 GMT
    Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
    New Zealand
    The stock market at a new record, yield curve flattening, Bitcoin surging..............Just another day in the US financial markets

    Behind the scenes there are a couple of developments worth noting.

    First, the yield on the S&P 500 has been declining while the 2-year Treasury bond yield climbs, closing the big gap that has been in place since the GFC.

    See chart below.

    Some asset allocation models will signal this as justification for a move from equities into bonds.

    Second, the tax bill that looks a done deal to pass thru Congress next week could lead to repatriation of up to $2 trillion of funds US companies are holding offshore. This could lead to a significant dollar shortage in the money markets. The EURUSD cross currency swap basis is moving accordingly, breaking under 100 basis points. It usually drops at year end but this time the move is pronounced and likely to be maintained.

    See chart below

    This could start to have an impact on EURUSD.
    Read the Squawk
    Treve Treve
    Max, great coverage this week from you! If you possibly have the time (and I can imagine how busy you are trading the markets) it would...
    Max McKegg Max McKegg
    Thanks Treve, as always there have been frustrating and testing periods (aplenty) in 2018 but applying stringent money/risk management (with considerable patience and trading discipline)
    has been the...
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