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Kay Van-Petersen
Saxo's Global Macro Strategist Kay Van-Petersen examines what may occur in financial markets after the first round of the French election on Sunday.

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  • Squawk / Yesterday at 20:22 GMT
    Global Macro Strategist [Asia based] / Saxo Bank
    Good morning & Happy Macro Monday

    Trade Update from mail sent early Asia Monday Morning

    Following initial readings Le Pen & Macron as the first two in Round one, c. 24.3 & 22.2…

    Giving a quick update on some of our positions

    Trade Update Tactical Book (Macro Monday/Cross Asset Call)

    1. We close off the balance of the USDCHF short at 0.9895 (low early Asia morning has been 0.9856). Probably runs lower, yet happy to take off at these lvls post event
    Remember we’ve been short since 1.0045

    2. We close off half the long EURUSD positioning at 1.0910 (high has been 1.0937). We move the stop up to 1.0870 (ITM) & move down the 2nd Tgt to 1.0992 (from 1.11)
    Remember we’ve been long since 1.0798 & been to the grave & back with this trade
    Will give the full update plus PnL impact on later on this morning’s Macro Monday, as well as further potential trade updates later… for instance could be looking to short Gold if we open above $1270 (closed c. $1284.44)… still having a think on that…
    Read the Squawk
    Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
    Nice shout Kay EUR strength into next week we hope
    Kay Van-Petersen Kay Van-Petersen

    Great coverage by Telegraph.

    Hey Andrew, lets see, ECB risk as always is to the upside - trixie given also that EZ CPI in on Friday... the...
  • Squawk / Yesterday at 19:05 GMT
    Managing Partner / Spotlight Group
    United Kingdom
    So if it is to be Macron and Le Pen that contest the second round no doubt the established parties and the fringe left will throw their support behind Macron. This will be a policy of "Anyone but Le Pen".

    Now this may well give a short-term boost to French assets such as the CAC 40 (depending on the general equity risk on mood) and the French Government debt.

    Be ready to trade the ranges.

    I have said before that Emmanuel Macron is not the answer to what France needs. If he becomes President I am sure that over the next few years we will see his policies of something for everyone and more and more Europe will lead France to endure bloated budget deficits and limited labour market reform.

    Young members of Le Republicans should start building a base for 2022...because by then France is going to desperately need a pro market solution.
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / Yesterday at 18:57 GMT
    Head of Macro Analysis / Saxo Bank
    Fillon and Hamon have stated they would support Macron in 2nd round. As expected, the Republican Front will prevent Le Pen from being elected...Macron will become the next French president.
    Read the Squawk
  • 7h
    Cesime Cesime
    Le Pen at 24.50%
    Jim Earls Jim Earls
    Wonder why Forex is only reacting to 2PM poll numbers-latest real numbers show Le Pen ahead.
  • Squawk / Yesterday at 18:34 GMT
    Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
    Macron vs. Le Pen
    Expect EURO to open +1%
    Source: Bloomberg LLP
    Read the Squawk
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