Q2 2018


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The US dollar continues to ride high this morning following yesterday's battering of the single currency at the hands of a dovish European Central Bank governor.

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  • 2d
    Santa Rita Mark Santa Rita Mark
    Way too soon for confidence, but gold-related charts starting to look better. NUGT, GDXJ, spot gold, etc. 'Hope I don't jinx it.
    TrustFundKid TrustFundKid
    My understanding for what happened is that Large Banks are going all in betting on lower inflation. Mostly due to US and EU ending QE and thus...
    MyTrade MyTrade
    Comes to me these articles as macro digests/FX updates/from the floor/weekly bond updates/equities updates are better off ignored. A simple man in the open street makes more...
  • 2d
    fxtime fxtime
    Great piece Mike ...thx for the major events next week too :-)
    Thanks Mike, very helpful. Last man standing, but standing strong ! Have a great weekend
    Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
    Thanks guys. Have a good weekend.
  • Squawk / Thursday at 21:20 GMT
    FX Trade Strategist / www.Loonieviews.net
    US Wrap: SMOKING! EURUSD Trashed

    NY Focus: The ECB turned hawkish for a nan-second today. They announced that quantitative easing would end in December 2018. EURUSD jumped to 1.1848 from 1.1815. Euro bulls were smiling.

    Then ECB President Mario Draghi put the hammer down and crushed the Euro. Uber-dove Draghi said, “we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged, and we expect them to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019 and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure that the evolution of inflation remains aligned with our current expectations of a sustained adjustment path.”

    EURUSD collapsed. It was trading at 1.1620 when Europe went home and dropped further in the New York afternoon, finishing the session at 1.1578.

    If a picture is worth a thousand words, check out the attached chart..It shows major G-10 currency ranges against the US dollar, from the New York open ( 1000 GMT) to the 2000 GMT closing level (New York close)
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / Thursday at 21:16 GMT
    FX Trade Strategist / www.Loonieviews.net
    US Wrap: Part 2 Sterling traders got sideswiped and became victims of the ECB carnage. GBPUSD was just above its highest level for the week (1.3445) boosted by better than expected UK Retail Sales.

    Then along came Draghi. The GBPUSD collapse was just as spectacular as the Euro collapse. GBPUSD plunged to 1.3260 in early Asia trading. GBPUSD sentiment is still bearish.

    USDJPY’s rally was not that impressive. Prices peaked around the 110.60 resistance area. Further gains will be difficult if US Treasury yields trade softly. The 10-year Treasury yield lost 1.41%, and the Long bond lost 1.48%

    The Canadian dollar led the commodity currency bloc lower. Higher USD interest rates and stagnant monetary policies in Canada, Australia and New Zealand weighed on the currency pairs.
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / Thursday at 21:16 GMT
    FX Trade Strategist / www.Loonieviews.net
    US Wrap: Part 3 Friday Focus: Friday’s focus will be triaged. Wounded traders will likely hug the sidelines while winning traders may take the opportunity to lock in some profits. President Trump is rumoured to be announcing new sanctions against China on Friday, or early next week.

    The USDX has resistance at 94.90-95.10 which has capped US dollar rallies since July 2017. If it continues to hold, it suggests the US dollar is vulnerable to a correction.
    Chart: USDX Daily
    Read the Squawk
  • 2d
    Jadira F. Norton Jadira F. Norton
    Thank you Ole 😊
  • Squawk / Wednesday at 21:08 GMT
    FX Trade Strategist / www.Loonieviews.net
    US Wrap: FOMC: Two down and two to go

    NY Focus: The Fed hiked rates. No surprise there. The statement was upbeat, and the Fed tweaked the dot-plot forecast. It looks like there will be two more rate increases still to come this year and a press conference after every meeting., starting in 2019. That caused a bit of furor. FX markets reacted predictably, and the US dollar soared on the news

    EURUSD opened at 1.1754 and drifted to 1.1790 into the FOMC meeting. Traders may have been expecting a more benign statement and more concerned about Thursday’s ECB meeting. The statement was released, and the single currency plummeted to 1.1724 and then bounced to 1.1800. The dot-plot forecast may have had something to do with the rally. Only eight Committee members favoured four rate hikes in 2018, while seven preferred just three.
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / Wednesday at 21:08 GMT
    FX Trade Strategist / www.Loonieviews.net
    US Wrap: Part 2 GBPUSD opened at 1.3338, its overnight low seen after mixed to soft UK economic data. Sterling managed to recover all its post data losses and took out the overnight before stalling at 1.3386 at FOMC time. Its collapse to 1.3320 was fully reversed, and GBPUSD finished the day with a small gain.

    USDJPY rallied to 110.83 and then retreated. To 110.28 at the close. The failure of 10-year Treasury yields to rally above 3.0% and their subsequent decline to 2.974, capped USDJPY gains
    Read the Squawk
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