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John J Hardy
The euro soars on subtle hawkish tone from European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, but the question is if the rally has been too sharp? John Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank, takes an in-depth look at Draghi's rhetoric and evaluates what effect it has on major forex crosses.

Currency crosses

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  • Squawk / 23 minutes ago
    Managing Partner / Spotlight Group
    United Kingdom
    Following yesterday's trade idea on shorting EURUSD I did respond to a question in the following manner:

    "...Stephen, thanks for the idea. Do you think it is still a good time to short? ..."

    Stephen Pope
    "... the current sentiment for the hour is to keep selling... but i will take the quick and small profit if 1.1345 gets printed on another up move. ..."

    This was done and so the trade which was planned as S/T or a day trade made 0.13%. I see that in Asia the EURUSD has resumed its higher track.

    Sometimes we just take the small gains and are grateful.
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / 2 hours ago
    Global Macro Strategist [Asia based] / Saxo Bank
    Hi there, as you know we have two Global Macro books in our weekly Cross-Asset "Macro Monday" call, a Tactical & Strategic set of books (TB & SB).

    We have had a long Cable trade view (entry 1.2750) from Fri Jun 9 that was published here:

    Sterling's bearish tide presents opportunity for GBPUSD

    Just flagging that we had the similar trade in the TB, albeit at less risk (1% instead of 2%) & narrower lvls (shorter time-frame).

    Early days, but we just took out the first profit target from the Tactical Leg at 1.2938. This is a c. +1.5% of profit on this leg of the trade, that’s add +0.33% (c. +USD 33,000) to the overall port. performance.

    These would leave the TB with 50% of the position targeting 1.3038 for the remaining clip.

    Early days - yet interesting to note trend, as well as lack of shorts in sterling compared to the record levels post eh Brexit vote & early on this year.
    Read the Squawk
    Blange Blange
    Thank you for the update KVP. In your outrageous prediction you predicted the rise of the bitcoin, with which Saxo product can I get exposure to the...
  • Article / 3 hours ago

    3 Numbers: Weak US growth expected for Q1 GDP data

    editor/analyst /
    United States
    3 Numbers: Weak US growth expected for Q1 GDP data
    Both Germany and European consumer sentiment is extremely robust, and last week’s flash update of the EU's Consumer Confidence Indicator for June rose more than expected. In the US, Q1 GDP is expected to remain at a sluggish 1.2%, but prospects for improvement in Q2 remain intact
    Read the article
  • 3h
    Treve Treve
    Love your Wave analysis Max!
  • Article / Yesterday at 14:50 GMT

    FX Board: Carney trumps Draghi as sterling storms back

    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    FX Board: Carney trumps Draghi as sterling storms back
    The euro had broken higher in all of the major pairs this morning before a European Central Bank source spoiled the party by maintaining that the market misinterpreted ECB president Mario Draghi's "balanced" comments. The euro then mounted a comeback attempt as the Bank of England's governor Mark Carney suddenly waxed hawkish, sending sterling vaulting higher across the board.
    Read the article
  • Squawk / Yesterday at 13:44 GMT
    Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
    Carney and ECB commnts roiling EURGBP. First we had the ECB going to the trouble to disapprove of the market's reaction to Draghi's "balanced" rhetoric, pushing the euro rally back sharply earlier today. And now we have the BoE's Carney out changing his always dovish tone on rate hikes with rhetoric suggesting that limited gradual rate changes are possible if growth/inflation trade-off recedes. This is strongly supportive of sterling as UK short rates advance sharply another several basis points and EURGBP gets crushed back into the range. This puts a pretty solid cap in place in EURGBP from a fundamental rate-spread perspective.
    Read the Squawk
    Market Predator Market Predator
    Communication of BoE members including Governor is real tragedy! :))
    Thanks John, for this summary.
    PredatorFX PredatorFX
    A classic example of buy on rumor sell the news, is gradually unfolding. fingers crossed
  • 10h
    Morris Morris
    Elliot long term we could be @ wave 4 up thus mid term bull. Short term bear a shooting star at the top of the price move...
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