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Is the Goldilocks trade back on? While longer-term global growth and macro trends argue otherwise, a dovish FOMC and a dip in 10-year US yields has sentiment on the rise in the short term.

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  • Squawk / Yesterday at 21:16 GMT
    FX Trade Strategist /
    US Wrap: FOMC Minutes Keep Bullish Dollar Bias Intact

    NY Focus: The US dollar was bid from the open, continuing yesterday’s rise. Weaker than expected UK and Eurozone economic reports, ongoing China/US trade concerns, diminishing expectations for the Trump/North Korea summit, Iran sanctions, fueled US dollar demand. Expectations for a hawkish bias in the FOMC minutes was icing on the cake.

    EURUSD dropped from 1.1730 to 1.1677 after the FOMC minutes were released. Those looking for a hawkish bias were disappointed. The minutes confirmed that most members believed that a rate hike would be “appropriate” soon which shouldn’t have surprised any as a June rate hike is nearly 100% priced in. The Committee was considered about the impact of trade tariffs and trade restrictions hurting capital investment and the agricultural industry. They also thought that inflation could modestly “overshoot the 2% target, for a time.
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / Yesterday at 21:16 GMT
    FX Trade Strategist /
    US Wrap Part 2 USDJPY rallied from 109.61 to 110.33. Prices dropped after the FOMC minutes with a helping hand from lower 10-year Treasury yields which hovered around 3%.
    Soft UK CPI data didn’t do Sterling bulls any favours. GBPUSD bounced between 1.3307 and 1.3357

    The commodity currency bloc rallied after the FOMC minutes. Traders concluded that there wasn’t any evidence to suggest that the pace of US rate hikes would increase.

    WTI oil prices shrugged off a steep rise in US crude inventories. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said stocks rose 5.77 million barrels in the week. WTI dropped from $72.05 to $71.22 before bouncing to $71.77 at the close.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose 0..21%, and the S&P 500 gained 0.32%.
    Read the Squawk
  • Squawk / Yesterday at 21:15 GMT
    FX Trade Strategist /
    US Wrap Part 3 Thursday Focus: GBPUSD will be a major focus due to the release of April Retail Sales data and a speech by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney The FOMC minutes pulled Wall Street out of the red and into the black, albeit marginally. Forecasters are expecting Retails sales to rebound and rise 0.7%, m/m after dropping 1.2% in March. Easter holidays could skew the data.

    Mr Carney is a wild card. It wouldn’t be out of character for him to sound bullish on rates, especially since GBPUSD dropped nearly 11 big figures since sentiment turned bearish on UK rates.
    Chart: GBPUSD daily
    Read the Squawk
  • 23h
    Logich Logich
    "Switching to neutral from positive on European equities as a weaker EUR provides a tailwind and the macro surprise cycle can only surprise to the upside." -...
  • 1d
    Marcus Sava Marcus Sava
    Thank you Althea, very interesting as usual! Nevertheless I think, regarding Argentina, that the weakness of the peso is not due to US interest rate rising because...
  • 1d
    JJb JJb
    Hi. What is this crazy buying the dip?
    Alan M Alan M
    Crazy isnt it, even more so in gasoline, even though there was a build in inventories
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