John J Hardy

John J Hardy

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Interest:
11 elements in forex
26 elements in commodities
56 elements in equities
25 elements in macro
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User type:
Community member, Blogger, Moderator, Saxobank employee 
Company:
Saxo Bank 
Title:
Head of FX Strategy 
John J Hardy, Saxo Bank, 03 February 2012

Strong US data sees split market reaction

The US economy supposedly added jobs at a furious rate in December – particularly according to the record job additions seen in the household survey. The kneejerk reaction in the USD was somewhat bifurcated. Read more
278 Views
1 Likes
0 Comments
John J Hardy, Saxo Bank, 03 February 2012

Pivotal payrolls day for USD majors

Several of the major USD pairs are at pivotal levels ahead of the US employment report and ISM non-manufacturing survey. The outcome of these key reports could be decisive as major USD pairs are at interesting pivot levels. Read more
854 Views
1 Likes
0 Comments
John J Hardy, Saxo Bank, 02 February 2012

Treading water until tomorrow’s important US data

Markets were zigging and zagging today as EU news tilted to the negative side. We saw a strong US weekly jobless claims report, but tomorrow’s US employment report and ISM non-manufacturing are the next key event risks. Read more
215 Views
2 Likes
0 Comments
John J Hardy, Saxo Bank, 01 February 2012

EURUSD dynamic shifts post EU summit but market discipline lurks

Concerns about Europe have eased somewhat post the EU summit but without real solutions and more liquidity some market discipline is soon likely. In the short term key US data will be more decisive for EURUSD than Eurozone numbers or political talk. Read more
222 Views
0 Likes
0 Comments
John J Hardy, Saxo Bank, 31 January 2012

EU summit fails to enthuse. US confidence crumbling?

The market is trying to celebrate the latest EU summit, but there’s not much there worth toasting. GBP is getting a nod of approval from the market as the UK gave the new fiscal compact the cold shoulder. Read more
715 Views
6 Likes
1 Comments
John J Hardy, Saxo Bank, 30 January 2012

The Week Ahead – Lots to ponder!

This week is guaranteed to produce volatile market action, with plenty of headline risk and a raft of interesting data releases on the economic calendar. Stay tuned and stay careful out there. Read more
432 Views
6 Likes
0 Comments
John J Hardy, Saxo Bank, 27 January 2012

US Q4 GDP weak, focus on EU summit dead ahead

Asset markets backed off the bid again today after a lacklustre US GDP report – particularly given the high expectations. The market will quickly forget about this one as the EU summit lies dead ahead, however. Read more
559 Views
3 Likes
0 Comments
John J Hardy, Saxo Bank, 26 January 2012

Liquidity in the driver’s seat – for how long?

The dovish FOMC is having the intended effect as the Aussie squirts to a new record high against the rest of the major currencies. Will this continue for mere days or several weeks? Read more
399 Views
1 Likes
0 Comments
John J Hardy, Saxo Bank, 26 January 2012

Bernanke Fed a fool in the shower?

The best column out there on yesterday's dovish FOMC statement comes, not so surprisingly, from the great Fed and bond market commentator over at Bloomberg, Caroline Baum. Read more
250 Views
2 Likes
0 Comments
John J Hardy, Saxo Bank, 25 January 2012

FOMC extends dovish forecasts

The FOMC forecast that rates expected to stay at exceptionally low rates “through at least late 2014”. But does that mean anything for this market’s unbearably short attention span? Read more
297 Views
3 Likes
0 Comments
John J Hardy, Saxo Bank, 25 January 2012

FOMC – don’t forget the irony of success

As so many of us are all dizzy with bullishness on all of the latest good data and Apple earnings, lets remind ourselves of how the central bank QE game works when things appear to be going well. Read more
721 Views
2 Likes
0 Comments
John J Hardy, Saxo Bank, 25 January 2012

What can spoil the running of the bulls?

Risk indicators are at the bulls’ back here, even if the ever-present Euro Zone sovereign debt crisis hydra stands ready to produce new ugly heads at any time. JPY continues to suffer – will FOMC provide a pivot? Read more
411 Views
0 Likes
0 Comments
John J Hardy, Saxo Bank, 24 January 2012

JPY weak and USD strong – discuss.

The USD is strong and the JPY is weak – this is unusual. What gives? Also, EU is pulled between positive economic data and new signs of trouble as things are rotten in the state of Portugal. Read more
280 Views
0 Likes
0 Comments
John J Hardy, Saxo Bank, 23 January 2012

The Week Ahead – EU focus to trump FOMC

Another Monday finds us looking at the week ahead, a week in which EU issues are likely to continue to dominate as the EURUSD starts off the week in full squeeze mode. The FOMC decision is up Wednesday, but may not be a watershed event. Read more
252 Views
0 Likes
0 Comments
John J Hardy, Saxo Bank, 20 January 2012

How much juice left to squeeze from the EURUSD lemon?

Will the 1.30 round level prove too much of a hurdle for this EURUSD squeeze or could next week's FOMC usher in a further consolidation to higher resistance? The next three days will be pivotal for the short term EURUSD outlook. Read more
961 Views
1 Likes
0 Comments
John J Hardy, Saxo Bank, 19 January 2012

Three cheers for extend and pretend – or not?

This market is cheering global signs of extending and pretending from global governments and central banks. We know where it will all end, but the trouble is always figuring out how long the market wants to live in fantasy land. Read more
619 Views
0 Likes
0 Comments
John J Hardy, Saxo Bank, 16 January 2012

The Week Ahead – Rising signs of worry amid the complacency

S&P's downgrades of a number of EU sovereigns appears to have had limited impact so far on risk appetite, which remains healthy on the surface. But beneath the surface signs of strain are increasingly evident. Read more
491 Views
1 Likes
0 Comments
John J Hardy, Saxo Bank, 13 January 2012

Euro smothered by weak Italian bond auction, downgrade rumours

The Euro squeeze reversed before developing much beyond a dead cat bounce after a poor showing at an Italian debt auction today. Meanwhile, Chinese reserves fell – why? Read more
196 Views
0 Likes
0 Comments
John J Hardy, Saxo Bank, 13 January 2012

Q1 FX Outlook: The song remains (mostly) the same

We expect the USD rally to pick up further steam in early 2012 on global uncertainty and continued deleveraging. The Euro is likely to continue to weaken against the USD, JPY and GBP. Read more
115 Views
0 Likes
0 Comments
John J Hardy, Saxo Bank, 12 January 2012

Time for a Euro squeeze after Draghi and ugly US data?

Ugly US data sees earlier risk rally turning tail rather than rallying on QE3 anticipation. Will the Euro see a squeeze in the crosses after ECB fails to offer rate cut hint and after strong Spanish and Italian debt auctions? Read more
981 Views
0 Likes
0 Comments
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    Biography
    John is Head of FX Strategy for Saxo Bank, based in London. John has developed a broad following from his popular and often quoted daily FX column, received by Saxo Bank clients and partners, the press and sales traders. John is a regular guest and commentator on television, including CNBC and Bloomberg. He also writes regular ad-hoc commentary focusing on the major currencies, Central Bank policies, macro-economic trends and other developments and is one of the authors of the Saxo Bank Quarterly Outlooks and the Outrageous Claims reports. John was named as one of the most influential people in Forex in 2008 and regularly tops the FX Week one-month and 12-month currrency forecast index.
    Disclaimer
    Non-independent investment research
    This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Saxo Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. » Read more
     
     
     

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