Trading commentary
09 March 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Another day of hesitant moves in FX, though CAD and AUD are generally stronger as all cylinders are firing in risk appetite.
09 March 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Bonds perk up again and so does the JPY - just a deeper retracement or or JPY crosses in danger of a renewed fall? USD trying to rally again, as the dollar index has officially gone nowhere for over a month now.
09 March 2010
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
Today will be another quiet day in terms of macro and company data. UK Trade Balance at 09:30 GMT is about as exciting as it gets today.
09 March 2010
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
A muted session overnight with few data releases of note to drive sentiment and direction. EUR was mildly positive at the onset as a result of leftover bullishness from Friday’s move, but barely managed above 1.37 versus the USD before reversing. German industrial production was below forecast (+0.6% m/m vs. +1.0% expected, +1.6% prior) and took some of the shine off the EUR while Moody’s caution on Portuguese banks escalated the slide. GBP was again an under-performer following comments from BOE’s Barker, and came under increasing pressure in the Asian session.
08 March 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Another boring Monday - or does it have bigger implications than the relatively docile trading ranges suggest?
08 March 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
FX and risk appetite trying to pick up where last week left off. How much gas is left in the tank for this rally in risk appetite?
08 March 2010
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
Equities have been range trading since October 2009 and after a test in late January/early February of the lower end of the range we are about to test the upper end. We are long until we reach 1150 (upper end of range) and from here we are sellers.
08 March 2010
Michael Schmeja, Global Head of Derivatives Sales, Saxo Bank
With payrolls out of the way the markets are back in risk mood and vols are being sold off. Downside risk has been reduced (EURUSD & GBPUSD) with the USD a touch on the back foot after Friday. The 1 month EURUSD Risk Reversal a good indicator still favors EUR Puts but did come down to 1.25. Spot is still in familiar ranges (1.3400/1.3800) and the week is full with good size maturities around a pivot of 1.3650/1.3700.
08 March 2010
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
A good report from the US labour market on Friday (Nonfarm Payrolls fell 36K vs. -68K expected while the Unemployment Rate held steady at 9.7%) could lead stocks higher today - helped by Sarkozy's fairly bullish comments.
08 March 2010
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
The details of the US non-farm payroll report gave risk bulls the ammunition they needed to drive risk, and risk currency pairs, higher into the weekend. Adjusting the headline -36k number for ex-census workers and weather-linked distortions then some pundits are suggesting that the number translates to a positive closer to 20k, yet pessimists would highlight that the previous month’s data was revised higher ( -26k versus -20k) and average hourly earnings were below forecast at +0.1% versus +0.2%.