Watch out for US housing data today Christian Blaabjerg, Filed in: 3 numbers to watch 26 January 2010 at 8:15 GMT Non-Independent Investment Research Daily Trading Stance Rumours about tightening lending standards in China continue to impact the markets as we saw a declining appetite for risk overnight with USD and JPY both strengthening. Watch out for the housing indices out of the US today (14:00 and 15:00 GMT). House prices appear to have stagnated (according to the CaseShiller HPI) and we expect a flat MoM number, which translates into a -5.2% YoY figure from -7.3% prior – slightly below consensus of -5.0%. Asian markets are again retracing o/n and spreads are widening. The HY credit universe is not performing too well and yesterday’s drop in Existing Home Sales was the biggest on record since sampling began in 1967. Risk-aversion is likely to continue today. Calendar Economic Data Releases Country Time (GMT) Name Saxo Consensus Prior GE 09:00 IFO Business Climate / Expectations (JAN) 95.1 / 99.1 94.7 / 99.1 UK 09:30 UK GDP QoQ (Q4) 0.4% -0.2% US 15:00 Consumer Confidence (JAN) 53.5 52.9 US 15:00 House Price Index (NOV) - 0.60% Earnings Releases Country Time (GMT) (G(GMT)(GMT) Name EPS exp. EPS prior Comment US 11:00 Du Pont 0.414 0.450 US - Johnson & Johnson 0.969 1.200 US - Yahoo! 0.168 0.080 FX FX Daily stance Comment EURUSD 0/- Seen capped at 1.4130 for a re-test of 1.4030 recent low. Stop abv 1.4185 USDJPY 0 Look for consolidation below 90.0. with a risk we ease off to 89.0. Res 90.20 EURJPY 0/- Sell up to 127.0 for a deeper push to 125.50. Stop abv 127.55 GBPUSD 0 Seen holding a 1.6170-1.6240 range. Watch for GDP data today AUDUSD 0/- Sell rally to 0.9020-40 window for a deeper retracement back to 0.89. Stop abv 0.9095 FX Options FX-Options Comment EURUSD Front end continues to see sellers and rest of the curve drifts lower but gamma should start seeing some support given the event risk next week. Buyers seen in upside strikes. USDJPY Risk reversals are leading vols higher as spot struggles to stay above 9000. Offers have dried up and would expect more short gamma covering to prevail is we hit new spot lows. AUDUSD Vols started the day offered with spot trading up to 9080 but quickly got paid up as we hit the lows. 2 wk 8800 area strikes are seeing some strong buying interest. Equities Equities Daily stance Comment DAX 0/- Sell on rallies towards 5640 targeting 5600. S/L above 5652. FTSE 0/- Sell on rallies towards 5260 targeting 5220. S/L above 5275. S&P500 0/- Sell on rallies towards 1096 targeting 1087. S/L above 1091. NASDAQ100 0/- DJIA 0/- Futures Commodities Daily Stance Comment Gold 0/- Sell at the break of 1092 and target 1083. Stop above 1096. Silver 0/- Sell at the break of 16.86 and target 16.50. Stop above 17.00. Oil (CLH0) 0/- Sell on rallies towards 75 and target 73. Stop above 75.50. Tweet Like LinkedIn Share Google+ Previous Next Comments Please sign in to comment or ask the author a question about this article. Recommended Recommend Unrecommend Recommend Tweet Like LinkedIn Share Google+ Related articles Bank of England minutes the main event today US Dollar Index continues higher Fed to keep interest rates low during all of 2010 Risk could be back today on better than expected Durable Goods USD and JPY weaken on risk appetite, high-yield bonds making new highs Topics This post appears under the following topics... GBPUSD EURJPY forex AUDUSD Housing Starts and Completions macro FX Options commodities FTSE100 equities Gross Domestic Product Consumer Confidence Reports USDJPY indices gold silver DAX EURUSD DJI