USDCAD - Bears in control this week - Targets .9885/9938

For USDCAD, the gradual decline from June’s high continues.

Last week a minor net decline was posted but the underlying tone is reflected by the bear channel of lower highs and lower lows. Throughout last week the base of this channel coincided with the emotive 1.0000 and this point attracted buying interest/profit taking, and even though Friday saw a move significantly below, the close was back above parity.

This does, of course, impact upon technical signals but this bias is still assessed as negative and so, with caution, our call for the coming days is Bearish while below 1.0123. The immediate target is .9938, a 78% pullback of the Apr-Jun rise, with a move through that point adding to selling pressure and focusing on .9885 then .9830.

The risk to this call is that support around 1.0000 is greater than currently assessed. This, and a bullish tone, would be signalled with a move beyond 1.0123, the base of the daily Ichimoku Cloud, with subsequent upside then targeting 1.0168 then 1.0233, the 2 week top.