22 December 2009 at 8:08 GMT
Daily Trading Stance
- CDS prices on especially the PIIGS countries are rising fast. The same goes for the yield on PIIGS government bonds. This means that the EUR should continue to be under pressure. Corporate CDS’s and bond spreads are still favoring risk, so we have a “buy-on-dips” stance for equities.
- Third estimate US GDP is not likely to move the markets, but the Existing Home Sales might surprise positively and lead stocks higher. We are still close to the 1121 level in S&P 500 and it still hasn’t been tested.
Calendar
| Economic Data Releases | |
| Country | Time (GMT) | Name | Saxo | Consensus | Prior |
| UK | 09:30 | GDP QoQ (Q3) | | -0.1% | -0.3% |
| US | 13:30 | GDP / Personal Consumption QoQ (Q3) | 2.7% / 2.9% | 2.8% / 2.9% | 2.8% / 2.9% |
| US | 15:00 | Existing Home Sales Units / MoM (NOV) | 6.3M / 3.3% | 6.25M / 2.5% | 6.10M / 10.1% |
FX
| FX | Daily stance | Comment |
| EURUSD | 0 | Retracement can extend to 1.4330 but capped there for 1.4265 -1.4330 range. |
| USDJPY | 0/+ | Buy dips to 91.0 for a push towards 92.0. Stop below 90.50. |
| EURJPY | 0/+ | Still buy dips to 129.90 for a test abv 130.75 to target 131.50. Stop below 129.50. |
| GBPUSD | 0/+ | While holding abv 1.6025 expect to retrace back to 1.61. Below 1.60 sees much deeper correction. |
| AUDUSD | 0/+ | Rebound from 0.8765 has potential to reach 0.8860. Stop below 0.8740. |
FX Options
| FX-Options | Comment |
| EURUSD | Gamma offered but the rest of the curve pretty much unchanged. EUR risk reversals are closer to par now but seemed to be bid again. |
| USDJPY | Same story with front end selling around ATM strikes for <1mth while mid-back end vols remain well bid all day with spot pushing to 9150 highs before easing off. |
| AUDUSD | Vols continue to tick higher as spot tests new lows in Asia. There are still persistent buyers of low delta upside 1-2mth strikes 9400-9500 area. |
Equities
| Equities | Daily stance | Comment |
| DAX | 0/+ | Buy around 5885 targeting 5920. S/L below 5868. |
| FTSE | 0/+ | Buy around 5255 targeting 5285. S/L below 5245. |
| S&P500 | 0/+ | Buy around 1104 targeting 1110. S/L below 1102. |
| NASDAQ100 | 0/+ | |
| DJIA | 0/+ | |
Futures
| Commodities | Daily Stance | Comment |
| Gold | 0/- | Sell at the break of 1088 and target 1072. Stop above 1093. |
| Silver | 0/- | Sell at the break of 16.89 and target 16.50. Stop above 17.03. |
| Oil (CLG0) | 0/+ | Buy on dips towards 71.80 and target 73.80. Stop below 71.10. |