US Dollar Index continues higher Christian Blaabjerg, Filed in: FX Update 21 December 2009 at 8:09 GMT Non-Independent Investment Research Daily Trading Stance We start off on a quiet note today in terms of macro data, but the next couple of days we have quite a few numbers, including US GDP, housing data, Personal Income, and U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence. The US dollar index continues from where it left off on Friday while corporate CDS prices are unchanged. We look for continued profit-taking in equities today and have a “sell at the break” stance. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index is expected to improve from October’s reading of -1.08. A reading below zero indicates that the US economy is still growing below the historical trend. Calendar Economic Data Releases Country Time (GMT) Name Saxo Consensus Prior US 13:30 Chicago Fed Nat. Activity Index (NOV) -1.08 CA 13:30 Retail Sales MoM (OCT) 0.8% 1.0% CA 13:30 Retail Sales ex. Autos MoM (OCT) 0.3% 1.1% FX FX Daily stance Comment EURUSD 0 Look for consolidation between 1.4285 -1.4380. Sml risk a break abv targets 1.4450 before lower USDJPY 0/+ Buy dips to 90.10-20 for a rebound back to 90.75, then 90.95. Stop below 89.85 EURJPY 0/+ Look to buy dips to 129.20, or break abv 129.85, for a test abv 130.0 en-route 130.80 GBPUSD 0/+ Chance we find a base at 1.61 for a rebound to 1.6185, poss 1.6250. Stop below 1.6050 AUDUSD 0 Likely consolidating 0.8810 -0.8900. Break below targets 0.8750 FX Options FX-Options Comment EURUSD Gamma turned bid in NY on Friday when spot dipped to well under 1.43 which should imply more momentum for the dollar rally. Also saw interest to buy 30 Dec 1.39 EUR puts. USDJPY Rather muted session with front end getting sold but back end holding up well. Seeing some selling of intraweek 90s 9050s so would expect spot to be rather contained. AUDUSD Spot continues its slide lower, pushing mid curve vols higher. We are seeing buyers for both upside and downside strikes 1-3mth area. Equities Equities Daily stance Comment DAX 0/- Sell at the break of 5825 targeting 5804. S/L above 5835. FTSE 0/- Sell at the break of 5190 targeting 5163. S/L above 5205. S&P500 0/- Sell at the break of 1094 targeting 1087. S/L above 1097. NASDAQ100 0/- DJIA 0/- Futures Commodities Daily Stance Comment Gold 0/- Capped at 1,119. Sell there for test below 1,100, target 1,000. Stop abv 1,123. Silver 0/- Sell rallies to 17.45 for a re-test of 17.20. Stop abv 17.55. Oil (CLF0) 0/+ Geo-politics to lend suppt. Ranging 74.10 – 75.30 today. Tweet Like LinkedIn Share Google+ Previous Next Comments Please sign in to comment or ask the author a question about this article. Recommended Recommend Unrecommend Recommend Tweet Like LinkedIn Share Google+ Related articles Watch out for US housing data today US stocks shake off disappointing consumer confidence USD and JPY weaken on risk appetite, high-yield bonds making new highs Earnings focus today - Cisco, Pfizer and Visa Look for earnings from JPMorgan and US Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization Topics This post appears under the following topics... GBPUSD EURJPY forex AUDUSD macro FX Options commodities FTSE100 equities Gross Domestic Product Consumer Confidence Reports Retail Sales USDJPY indices gold silver DAX EURUSD DJI