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3 numbers to watch - Macro analysis on the day’s biggest scheduled economic events

UK and US data will be critical for markets today

Filed in: 3 numbers to watch
28 August 2009 at 8:13 GMT

Daily Trading Stance

  • US Q2 GDP revisions were almost unchanged (and thereby better than expected) from the first estimate. 
  • Stocks closed higher after rejecting new 4-day lows and EUR is edging higher vs. USD and JPY - indicating optimism. The High-Yield Universe is underperforming slightly and that is a concern, but we still maintain a buy-on-dips stance.
  • Beware of the election in 2 days in Japan. LDP stands to lose power in a landslide loss and the DPJ stands to win - for the first time in half a decade.  DPJ stands for handouts but also reform. It is difficult to believe that the structural problems of Japan can get much worse. The unemployment rate just came out at 5.7%.

Calendar

Economic Data Releases

 

Country

Time (GMT)

Name

Expectation

Prior

Comment

UK

08:30

GDP QoQ (JUL)

-0.8%

-0.8%

 

US

12:30

US PCE Core YoY (JUL)

1.4%

1.5%

 

US

14:00

U. of Michigan Confidence (AUG)

64.0

63.2

 

 

Earnings Releases

 

Country

Time (GMT)

Name

EPS exp.

EPS prior

Comment

US

Bf-Mkt

Tiffany

0.334

0.200

 


FX

FX

Daily stance

Comment

EURUSD

0/+

Break abv 1.4280 sees focus on upside n/term. Buy dips to 1.4325 for 1.4450

EURJPY

0/+

Suppt now rising to 134.00-10. Look for test of res at 135.20

USDJPY

+

Seen struggling abv 94.0, but likely ranging 93.30-94.00               

GBPUSD

0/-

Risk of a squeeze up to 1.6340-50 but overall a sell for sub-1.62 again

AUDUSD

0/+

Buy dips down to 0.8350 for a re-test of 0.8425-50 levels


FX Options

FX-Options

Comment

EURUSD

ATM vols still offered in the market whereas the wings are very bid. Market looking for

 

nonfarm on 4 sep to determine the next moves.

USDJPY

Vols softer across the curve this morning, spot holds steady and front end seeing the usual

 

gamma sellers. Despite the elections this weekend, market is not expecting any surprises.

AUDUSD

Gamma has been offered most of the session as spot is just sitting around a tight range.

 

Back end saw some bids, and next event risks would be RBA and nonfarm next week.


Equities

Equities

Daily stance

Comment

DAX

0/+

Buy at the break of 5520 targeting 5575. S/L below 5485.

FTSE

0/+

Buy at the break of 4910 targeting 4954. S/L below 4870.

S&P500

0/+

Buy at the break 1033 targeting 1040. S/L below 1029.

Nasdaq100

0/+

 

Dow Jones

0/+

 


Futures

Commodities

Daily Stance

Comment

Gold

0/+

Buy around 945 and target 956. Stop below 940.

Silver

0/+

Buy at the break of 14.50 and target 14.75. Stop below 14.40.

Oil

0/+

Buy on dips towards 72 and target 73.50. Stop below 71. 

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