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05 February 2010

Nonfarm Payrolls

Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank

Risk got hit hard yesterday as the market turned its attention to the problems in Euroland and more specifically Greece, Spain, and Portugal. The VIX rose and CDS spreads also increased.

Certainly, earnings ‘beats’ are no longer getting the attention they were in the previous couple of quarters, and we do not expect this to change in this earnings season, despite the companies actually putting up some respectable numbers on both earnings and revenues.

Today Nonfarm Payrolls are released with the added spice that the annual revision will accompany it. Estimates are all over the place ranging from -100K to 100K.

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09 March 2010

FX Closing Note: Today was yesterday in reverse

John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank

Another day of hesitant moves in FX, though CAD and AUD are generally stronger as all cylinders are firing in risk appetite.
Read More

09 March 2010

FX Update: USDJPY back below 90.00 on bond resurgence

John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank

Bonds perk up again and so does the JPY - just a deeper retracement or or JPY crosses in danger of a renewed fall? USD trying to rally again, as the dollar index has officially gone nowhere for over a month now.
Read More

09 March 2010

Another quiet day expected, equities to range trade

Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank

Today will be another quiet day in terms of macro and company data. UK Trade Balance at 09:30 GMT is about as exciting as it gets today.
Read More

09 March 2010

FX Update: Risk appetite lacks follow-through in a lackluster Asian session

Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets

A muted session overnight with few data releases of note to drive sentiment and direction. EUR was mildly positive at the onset as a result of leftover bullishness from Friday’s move, but barely managed above 1.37 versus the USD before reversing. German industrial production was below forecast (+0.6% m/m vs. +1.0% expected, +1.6% prior) and took some of the shine off the EUR while Moody’s caution on Portuguese banks escalated the slide. GBP was again an under-performer following comments from BOE’s Barker, and came under increasing pressure in the Asian session.

Read More

08 March 2010

FX Closing Note: The Monday fizzle after the Friday bang...

John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank

Another boring Monday - or does it have bigger implications than the relatively docile trading ranges suggest?
Read More

08 March 2010

Equity Strategy Outlook: Time for caution

Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank

Equities have been range trading since October 2009 and after a test in late January/early February of the lower end of the range we are about to test the upper end. We are long until we reach 1150 (upper end of range) and from here we are sellers.
Read More

08 March 2010

FX Update: Picking up where last week left off?

John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank

FX and risk appetite trying to pick up where last week left off. How much gas is left in the tank for this rally in risk appetite?
Read More

08 March 2010

FX Options Daily: Markets back in risk mood

Michael Schmeja, Global Head of Derivatives Sales, Saxo Bank

With payrolls out of the way the markets are back in risk mood and vols are being sold off. Downside risk has been reduced (EURUSD & GBPUSD) with the USD a touch on the back foot after Friday. The 1 month EURUSD Risk Reversal a good indicator still favors EUR Puts but did come down to 1.25. Spot is still in familiar ranges (1.3400/1.3800) and the week is full with good size maturities around a pivot of 1.3650/1.3700.
Read More

08 March 2010

Sarkozy and Nonfarm Payrolls to drive stocks

Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank

A good report from the US labour market on Friday (Nonfarm Payrolls fell 36K vs. -68K expected while the Unemployment Rate held steady at 9.7%) could lead stocks higher today - helped by Sarkozy's fairly bullish comments.
Read More

Trading commentary

05 February 2010

Nonfarm Payrolls

Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank

Risk got hit hard yesterday as the market turned its attention to the problems in Euroland and more specifically Greece, Spain, and Portugal. The VIX rose and CDS spreads also increased.

Certainly, earnings ‘beats’ are no longer getting the attention they were in the previous couple of quarters, and we do not expect this to change in this earnings season, despite the companies actually putting up some respectable numbers on both earnings and revenues.

Today Nonfarm Payrolls are released with the added spice that the annual revision will accompany it. Estimates are all over the place ranging from -100K to 100K.

Download Daily Trading Stance.


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09 March 2010

FX Closing Note: Today was yesterday in reverse

John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank

Another day of hesitant moves in FX, though CAD and AUD are generally stronger as all cylinders are firing in risk appetite.

09 March 2010

FX Update: USDJPY back below 90.00 on bond resurgence

John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank

Bonds perk up again and so does the JPY - just a deeper retracement or or JPY crosses in danger of a renewed fall? USD trying to rally again, as the dollar index has officially gone nowhere for over a month now.

09 March 2010

Another quiet day expected, equities to range trade

Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank

Today will be another quiet day in terms of macro and company data. UK Trade Balance at 09:30 GMT is about as exciting as it gets today.

09 March 2010

FX Update: Risk appetite lacks follow-through in a lackluster Asian session

Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets

A muted session overnight with few data releases of note to drive sentiment and direction. EUR was mildly positive at the onset as a result of leftover bullishness from Friday’s move, but barely managed above 1.37 versus the USD before reversing. German industrial production was below forecast (+0.6% m/m vs. +1.0% expected, +1.6% prior) and took some of the shine off the EUR while Moody’s caution on Portuguese banks escalated the slide. GBP was again an under-performer following comments from BOE’s Barker, and came under increasing pressure in the Asian session.

08 March 2010

FX Closing Note: The Monday fizzle after the Friday bang...

John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank

Another boring Monday - or does it have bigger implications than the relatively docile trading ranges suggest?

08 March 2010

FX Update: Picking up where last week left off?

John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank

FX and risk appetite trying to pick up where last week left off. How much gas is left in the tank for this rally in risk appetite?

08 March 2010

Equity Strategy Outlook: Time for caution

Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank

Equities have been range trading since October 2009 and after a test in late January/early February of the lower end of the range we are about to test the upper end. We are long until we reach 1150 (upper end of range) and from here we are sellers.

08 March 2010

FX Options Daily: Markets back in risk mood

Michael Schmeja, Global Head of Derivatives Sales, Saxo Bank

With payrolls out of the way the markets are back in risk mood and vols are being sold off. Downside risk has been reduced (EURUSD & GBPUSD) with the USD a touch on the back foot after Friday. The 1 month EURUSD Risk Reversal a good indicator still favors EUR Puts but did come down to 1.25. Spot is still in familiar ranges (1.3400/1.3800) and the week is full with good size maturities around a pivot of 1.3650/1.3700.

08 March 2010

Sarkozy and Nonfarm Payrolls to drive stocks

Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank

A good report from the US labour market on Friday (Nonfarm Payrolls fell 36K vs. -68K expected while the Unemployment Rate held steady at 9.7%) could lead stocks higher today - helped by Sarkozy's fairly bullish comments.

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