15 December 2009
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
Daily Trading Stance
- A quiet Monday is followed by a busy Tuesday in terms of macro data. Besides the data mentioned below, watch out for various UK price indices at (GMT) 09:30 and US TIC Flows at 14:00.
- We have raised our forecasts for US production to 0.4% (Capacity Utilization: 71.0%). The upward revisions are due to stronger manufacturing data in general, including weekly hours worked. However, we are still slightly below consensus. We have also raised our headline PPI forecast a bit due to higher energy prices.
- The NAHB Housing Market Index (18:00 GMT) should show renewed strength given the extension of the homebuyer tax credit in the US. The Index was unchanged in November due to the uncertainty over an extension of the tax credit.
- Empire Manufacturing (13:30 GMT) declined to 23.51 in NOV (from 34.57) and weaker New Orders put downward pressure on the survey, which is expected to come out at 24.00.
Calendar
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Economic Data Releases
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|
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Country
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Time (GMT)
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Name
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Saxo
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Consensus
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Prior
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GE
|
10:00
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ZEW Eco. Sentiment / Curr. Situation (DEC)
|
|
50.0 / -60.1
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51.1 / -65.6
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|
US
|
13:30
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PPI / Core PPI MoM (NOV)
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0.6% / 0.1 %
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0.8% / 0.2%
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0.3% / -0.6%
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|
US
|
14:15
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Ind. Prod. / Capacity Util. MoM (NOV)
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0.4% / 71.0%
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0.5% / 71.1%
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0.1% / 70.7%
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FX
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FX
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Daily stance
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Comment
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EURUSD
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0/-
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Further consolidation 1.4600-80 range expected but prefers to sell into rallies. Abv 1.4715 defers.
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USDJPY
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0/+
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Suppt at 88.50 looks firm and should contain losses. Buy now, or break abv 89.10 for 89.75. Stop 88.25.
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EURJPY
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0
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Expect to remain in 129.30 -130.30 range. Slight preference to sell into rallies.
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GBPUSD
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0
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Expect 1.6265 to hold current slide for rebound to 1.6325 before lower again.
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AUDUSD
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0
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Trade a 0.9115-0.9165 range before breakout. Prefer to play from short side for 0.9075. Abv sees 0.92.
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FX Options
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FX-Options
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Comment
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EURUSD
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Vols saw some early selling in Europe levels have settled later in the day. Liquidity remains poor and gamma is still low given recent ranges and event risk this week.
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USDJPY
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Back end seemed slightly firmer compared to yesterday but spot has just been sitting in ranges. Intraweek strikes remain bid over FOMC dates.
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AUDUSD
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Vols continue to trade under pressure this session but there was some interest to buy 9300-9500 strikes for 1-3mth area so the broader uptrend looks expected to continue.
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Equities
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Equities
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Daily stance
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Comment
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DAX
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0/-
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Sell at the break of 5793 targeting 5764. S/L above 5811.
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FTSE
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0/-
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Sell at the break of 5298 targeting 5260. S/L above 5318.
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S&P500
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0/-
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Sell on rallies towards 1117 targeting 1110. S/L above 1117.
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NASDAQ100
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0/-
|
|
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DJIA
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0/-
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Futures
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Commodities
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Daily Stance
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Comment
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Gold
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0
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Likely consolidating betw 1,120 and 1,128 before breakout. Risk of breakdown to 1,110 suppt.
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Silver
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0/-
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Sell break below 17.27 for 17.10 else we stay in a 17.27 – 17.43 range.
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Oil (CLF0)
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0
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Likely range trading 69.50 -70.25. Awaiting breakout either way.
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