Trading commentary
08 February 2010
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
A quiet Monday in terms of macro data will kick off this week, so focus will be on the reporting companies, and of course the continued problems surrounding the PIIGS countries. Spreads have widened again and stocks fell overnight over failure to get any closer to a solution to the budget deficits in the Eurozone. We remain negative on risk today and sell on rallies. The revision of nonfarm payrolls last Friday meant that the March 2009 level was revised down by 930K while the December 2009 level was changed by -1,363K. Meanwhile consumer credit continues to fall, this time by $1.7bn.
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10 March 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
A chaotic data for the most risk sensitive currency pairs as US equities couldn't decided whether to take new high ground and ahead of the Australia employment report. RBNZ was out with dovish guidance.
10 March 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
JPY on the ropes again suddenly as the MoF and BoJ wrangle over what to do about Japanese deflation. AUD/NZD poised at key levels ahead of tonight's RBNZ as the market looks for guidance on the timing of the bank's first hike.
10 March 2010
Michael Schmeja, Global Head of Derivatives Sales, Saxo Bank
It has been a pretty dull day here in Asia at least around volatility in the markets. All major pairs are more or less unchanged to the London/New York close. As mentioned on Monday we have some significant expiries this week, also in terms of size, in the majors in EURUSD around 1.3600 and in cable at 1.5000 and 1.5010. 1.3600 seem very pivotal at the moment and if we don’t get any fresh news I would expect volatility to drop further.
10 March 2010
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
The GBP has performed poorly overnight. Watch out for today's industrial production.
10 March 2010
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
It was another session with very little in the way of data releases to latch on to, so markets were left range-bound again overnight. A general mood of “risk off” permeated through markets for most of the early session, with the JPY and USD benefitting the most. GBP was hammered early in the session as a very weak trade number came on the back of soft RICS report. GBPUSD slumped to a one week low before staging a comeback into the close as risk appetite also reversed. EUR was also under early pressure as ratings agency Fitch was out on the wires saying the UK’s sovereign profile had deteriorated “pretty badly” while Portugal may be downgraded on insufficient fiscal measures. On the Greece front, they added that the current rating was appropriate but in Spain the macro risks remain high.
09 March 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Another day of hesitant moves in FX, though CAD and AUD are generally stronger as all cylinders are firing in risk appetite.
09 March 2010
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Bonds perk up again and so does the JPY - just a deeper retracement or or JPY crosses in danger of a renewed fall? USD trying to rally again, as the dollar index has officially gone nowhere for over a month now.
09 March 2010
Christian Blaabjerg, Chief Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank
Today will be another quiet day in terms of macro and company data. UK Trade Balance at 09:30 GMT is about as exciting as it gets today.
09 March 2010
Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets
A muted session overnight with few data releases of note to drive sentiment and direction. EUR was mildly positive at the onset as a result of leftover bullishness from Friday’s move, but barely managed above 1.37 versus the USD before reversing. German industrial production was below forecast (+0.6% m/m vs. +1.0% expected, +1.6% prior) and took some of the shine off the EUR while Moody’s caution on Portuguese banks escalated the slide. GBP was again an under-performer following comments from BOE’s Barker, and came under increasing pressure in the Asian session.