25 January 2010 at 8:37 GMT
Daily Trading Stance
- A very busy week will be kicked off by Existing Home Sales where consensus is for a large MoM drop due to then uncertainty regarding the extension of the homebuyer tax credit. With the extension now in place we only expect sales to be affected for a couple of months.
- Stocks took a big hit in the US session last Friday, falling roughly 2%, and the trend continued in Asia overnight. We will therefore open quite a bit lower in Europe. We are, however, cautiously optimistic on risk today and buy the dips once opening levels have been established.
- Ericsson reported earnings earlier today, announcing that earnings came in at SEK 314M vs. SEK 2.5B. The company seems to have landed itself in trouble with its focus on lower prices instead of customized solutions.
Calendar
| Economic Data Releases | |
| Country | Time (GMT) | Name | Saxo | Consensus | Prior |
| US | 15:00 | Existing Home Sales (DEC) | | 5.90M | 6.54M |
| US | 15:00 | Existing Home Sales MoM (DEC) | -8.0% | -9.8% | 7.4% |
| US | 15:30 | Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity (JAN) | | 6.0% | 3.8% |
| Earnings Releases | |
| Country | Time (GMT) (G(GMT)(GMT) | Name | EPS exp. | EPS prior | Comment |
| US | 16:30 | Texas Instruments | 0.503 | 0.430 | |
| US | Bef-Mkt | Halliburton | 0.271 | 0.310 | |
| US | Aft-Mkt | Apple | 3.460 | 1.820 | |
FX
| FX | Daily stance | Comment |
| EURUSD | 0/+ | Buy break abv 1.4185 for a run up to 1.4235. Stop below 1.4110 |
| USDJPY | 0/+ | Buy dips to 89.80 for a rebound to 90.75, stop below 89.25 |
| EURJPY | 0/+ | Look to buy dips to 127.0 for a rebound back to 128.40. Stop below 126.40 |
| GBPUSD | 0/+ | Buy break abv 1.6145, or dip to 1.61, for 1.6200 target, stop below 1.6060 |
| AUDUSD | 0/+ | Prefer buy dips to 0.9035, target 0.9100 stop below 0.8975 |
FX Options
| FX-Options | Comment |
| EURUSD | Vols went through a volatile European session but ended up largely unchanged. Market sees bids for 2 wk area sub 1.40 strikes as well as 1.4250 and beyond. |
| USDJPY | Yen vols are largely sidelined in Asia. Gamma relatively well supported through the 2 wk area although 1m-2m downside sees sellers. |
| AUDUSD | Vols opened up bid but succumbed to selling pressure as spot recovers off the lows. A rally above 9100 will see vols head lower. Mostly sellers of short date downside today. |
Equities
| Equities | Daily stance | Comment |
| DAX | 0/- | Buy around 5630 targeting 5663. S/L below 5615. |
| FTSE | 0/- | Buy around 5235 targeting 5265. S/L below 5220. |
| S&P500 | 0/- | Buy around 1096 targeting 1105. S/L below 1092. |
| NASDAQ100 | 0/- | |
| DJIA | 0/- | |
Futures
| Commodities | Daily Stance | Comment |
| Gold | 0/- | Look to sell rallies to 1,110 for a retracement back to Fri lows at 1,083. Stop abv 1,115. |
| Silver | 0/- | Sell rallies to 17.25 for a re-test of 16.75. Stop abv 17.55 |
| Oil (CLH0) | 0 | Seen consolidating abv recent base at 74.0. Suggest a 74.25 – 75.0 range |