26 January 2011 at 9:23 GMT
German import price data released this morning surprised to the upside fuelling sentiment that an interest hike is needed in Europe, at least when seen from the perspective of Germany. Other important macro releases today include BoE minutes and US New Home sales.
The German Import Prices report was stronger than expected. This increased speculation that an interest rate increase may be ahead. However, as most are aware a rate rise right now would particularly hurt Southern European countries. Therefore, before any rate hike should be considered decisions need to be made about structural issues concerning the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) and its overall status in terms of what is feasible in order to support European government bond markets, plus refunding needs. Until then it’s unlikely the European Central Bank will interfere with inflation.
The release of minutes from a meeting of the Bank of England (BOE) at 0930 GMT is likely to reveal a split vote, just like in the December minutes’ release. In other words, the majority of central bank members still favour maintaining an unchanged interest rate policy. There’s no doubt that some members support more quantitative easing while others call for fiscal tightening, but it’s important to remember that the meeting took place on the back of expectations for inflation to speed up, based on the December CPI that was higher than expected and rising commodity prices. We however expect most policy members have the stomach needed to maintain a wait and see approach. We therefore do not foresee any market reaction to the release.
Concerning U.S. New Home sales, to be reported at 1500 GMT, we expect to see a range that is near the lows of this series that dates back to 1963. Since the end of the home buyer tax credit last April new home sales have failed to gain traction. Meanwhile, the inventories of unsold new homes have fallen to the lowest recorded level and they are continuing to drop. However, there is also good news on the horizon, as the number of fully completed homes for sale now appears to have reached a balance with sales demand. This will eventually spill into the stock of unsold new homes and the declining trend could thereby come to an end.
Furthermore, it is worth noting that Ben Bernanke has said this is one of the factors that he is continuously paying attention to when evaluating the potential for an interest rate increase.