Risk sentiment opening the new year Christian Blaabjerg, Filed in: 3 numbers to watch 04 January 2010 at 9:20 GMT Non-Independent Investment Research Daily Trading Stance The US dollar has been rallying overnight together with stocks. We had good manufacturing numbers from China (HSBC PMI Manufacturing out at 56.1 vs. 55.7 prior) though manufacturing in Australia, however, fell for the first time in 4 months as the AiG Index came out at 48.5 vs. 51.2 in Nov. US stock futures are up this morning and we have a bullish stance today. The ISM Manufacturing Index is out today and we expect an above consensus reading of 54.8 (vs. consensus of 54.0). The manufacturing sector continues to improve in the US with the latest indication being the Chicago regional PMI Index which rose to 60.0 in December from 56.1 prior. The US Construction Spending report is also out today and is expected to show a decrease in November due mainly to non-residential construction. Calendar Economic Data Releases Country Time (GMT) Name Saxo Consensus Prior UK 09:30 PMI Manufacturing (DEC) 52.0 51.8 US 15:00 ISM Manufacturing (DEC) 54.8 54.0 53.6 US 15:00 Construction Spending MoM (NOV) -0.3% -0.5% 0.0% FX FX Daily stance Comment EURUSD 0/- Chance we squeeze up to 1.4340 area before lower. Sell rallies for test of 1.4220, stop abv 1.4365. USDJPY 0/+ Buy dips to 92.70-75 area for a test of 93.25 en-route 93.65. Stop below 92.40. EURJPY 0/+ Suppt now 132.40-50 for test of 133.20, poss 133.60. Stop below 132.20. GBPUSD 0 1.6050 needs to hold for chance of 1.6150, poss 1.6225. Likely 1.6050-1.6150 range. AUDUSD 0/+ Support at 0.8950 seen holding for a test of 0.9000, poss 0.9025 before lower. FX Options FX-Options Comment EURUSD Front end opens up higher with some interests looking to buy 1m ATM. Front end should stay well bid with spot continuing to test new lows. USDJPY Vols remain bid in the middle of the curve as 6m traded 15.0 several times in Asia. Front end upside strikes continues to be in demand so might fuel further gains in the dollar rally. AUDUSD Market seemed to be short downside gamma as short dated downside strikes got paid this morning. Mid curve vols are easing up a bit now that spot has come off the lows. Equities Equities Daily stance Comment DAX 0/+ Buy at the break of 5981 targeting 6012. S/L at 5965. FTSE 0/+ Buy at the break of 5423 targeting 5450. S/L at 5405. S&P500 0/+ Buy the break of 1116 targeting 1121. S/L at 1113. NASDAQ100 0/+ DJIA 0/+ Futures Commodities Daily Stance Comment Gold 0/- Sell rallies to 1,105 res for a retracement back to 1,080. Stop abv 1,112. Silver 0/- Sell rallies to 17.05-10 res lvl for a re-test of 16.80, poss 16.70. Stop abv 17.15. Oil (CLG0) 0 Seen ranging 0.7975 -0.8075. Tweet Like LinkedIn Share Google+ Previous Next Comments Please sign in to comment or ask the author a question about this article. Recommended Recommend Unrecommend Recommend Tweet Like LinkedIn Share Google+ Related articles Look for US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization today Hope for G20 meeting outcome will lead equities higher We are looking for a retest of major levels in stock indices today Earnings focus today - Cisco, Pfizer and Visa Watch out for US housing data today Topics This post appears under the following topics... GBPUSD EURJPY forex AUDUSD macro FX Options commodities FTSE100 equities USDJPY Manufacturing indices gold silver DAX EURUSD DJI