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3 numbers to watch - Macro analysis on the day’s biggest scheduled economic events

Re-election of Bernanke could spur risk appetite again

Filed in: 3 numbers to watch
27 January 2010 at 8:40 GMT

Daily Trading Stance

  • It is now more or less obvious that Bernanke will be reelected as Fed Chairman. That will be supporting risk, so we are looking for a bounce in the markets over the rest of the week.
  • Furthermore, New Home Sales have the potential to surprise on the upside, so we recommend being long stocks and risk over the figures.
  • Therefore we have a “buy on dips” stance for risk today – especially ahead of the FOMC Decision and Statement tonight.

 Calendar

Economic Data Releases

 

Country

Time (GMT)

Name

Saxo

Consensus

Prior

US

15:00

New Home Sales MoM (DEC)

4.3%

3.0%

-11.3%

US

19:15

FOMC Rate Decision

 

0.25%

0.25%

 

Earnings Releases

 

Country

Time (GMT)

Name

EPS exp.

EPS prior

Comment

US

07:30

Boeing

1.361

-2.220

 

US

07:30

Caterpillar

0.280

0.440

 

US

08:30

ConocoPhilips

1.140

1.020

 

FX

FX

Daily stance

Comment

EURUSD

0

Expect consolidation within 1.4020 – 1.4120 range. Await breakout.

USDJPY

0

Seen ranging around 89.30 retracement lvl. Suggest 88.80-89.70 parameters.

EURJPY

0

Capped at 126.35 but ranging 125.0-126.20.

GBPUSD

0/-

Look to sell rallies to 1.6160-70 area for a retracement back to 1.6085. Stop abv 1.6205.

AUDUSD

0/-

Prefer to sell rallies to 0.9050 for test of 0.8960, poss 0.8930 sht-term. Stop abv 0.9110.

FX Options

FX-Options

Comment

EURUSD

Front end started off strong but later saw sellers as spot came off the lows and later found a base. There was also a buyer of 26 Mar 1.46 in 1 bio.

USDJPY

Spot drops to 8915 and keeps vols well supported. No scramble for downside gamma but back end vega sees good bids along with the risk reversals.

AUDUSD

Vols remain bid throughout the Asian session. Market is rather long gamma in this spot range so front end likely to get offered if spot ends up above 9050 after the FOMC.

Equities

Equities

Daily stance

Comment

DAX

0/+

Buy on dips towards 5640 targeting 5680. S/L below 5625.

FTSE

0/+

Buy on dips towards 5250 targeting 5290. S/L below 5230.

S&P500

0/+

Buy on dips towards 1088 targeting 1100. S/L below 1084.

NASDAQ100

0/+

 

DJIA

0/+

 

 Futures

Commodities

Daily Stance

Comment

Gold

0/+

Buy at the break of 1105 and target 1115. Stop below 1100.

Silver

0/-

Sell at the break of 16.70 and target 16.50. Stop above 16.80.

Oil (CLH0)

0

Neutral.

 

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