SAXO BANK'S OUTRAGEOUS PREDICTIONS 2013

Outrageous Prediction: Japan's electronics companies nationalised

Peter GarnryPeter Garnry , Head of Equity Strategy, Saxo Bank
Denmark, 18 December 2012 at 06:31 GMT+0
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Japan’s electronics industry, once the glory of the ‘Land of the Rising Sun’, enters a terminal phase after being outmatched by the roaring South Korean electronics industry, with Samsung the winner. The core driver of the industry’s decline is a too domestically oriented approach which has led to a high fixed cost base due to Japan’s extreme living costs, pensions and the strong yen. With combined losses of USD 30 billion in the last twelve months ending September 30, 2012, for Sharp, Panasonic and Sony combined, creditworthiness deteriorates greatly and the Japanese government nationalises the electronics industry in déjà-vu style - similar to the government bailout of the US automobile industry. There has been no nominal growth in Japan’s gross domestic product in eight out of the last 16 years and as a consequence of the bailouts, the Bank of Japan formalises nominal GDP targeting. The BoJ expands its balance sheet to almost 50 percent of nominal GDP to
spur inflation and weaken the yen. As a result, USDJPY goes to 90.

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Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions are 10 unlikely, but far more likely than appreciated events that could transpire in the coming year and would have significant consequences. They are not an attempt to predict the future or to be outrageous for the sake of it, but an attempt to spark debate and think outside the box.
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Saxo Bank provides an execution-only service. The material on this website does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Saxo Bank accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result.

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Disclaimer

Saxo Bank provides an execution-only service. The material on this website does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Saxo Bank accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result.

Please read our full disclaimers:
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