SAXO BANK'S OUTRAGEOUS PREDICTIONS 2013

Outrageous Prediction: 30-year US yield doubles in 2013

Steen JakobsenSteen Jakobsen , Chief Economist & CIO, Saxo Bank
Denmark, 18 December 2012 at 06:29 GMT+0
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The 30-year US Treasury bond tells us that the expected return over the next 30 years is a real return of 0.4 percent (2.8% yield minus a break-even inflation of 2.4%). This cannot last in a world of forced inflation via infinite monetary printing and a possible downgrade of the US - if we fail to get structural fiscal reforms. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates low for longer but in 2013 this could be challenged by the zero interest rate policy which forces investors to leave fixed income to attain any yield. The global bond markets is USD 157 trillion versus a stock market valuation of USD 55 trillion (Source: Mapping global capital markets 2011 - McKinsey & Company). This means that for every one dollar in equity there are three in fixed income. With no return or even negative return (after costs) the substitution of bonds with stocks is appealing. For every 10 percent the mutual funds reduce their bond weightings the equity market will see 30 percent on net inflow – this could not only lead to higher US rates, but also be the beginning of decade-long outperformance by stocks over bonds, which is long overdue.

 

 

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Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions are 10 unlikely, but far more likely than appreciated events that could transpire in the coming year and would have significant consequences. They are not an attempt to predict the future or to be outrageous for the sake of it, but an attempt to spark debate and think outside the box.
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Saxo Bank provides an execution-only service. The material on this website does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Saxo Bank accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result.

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Disclaimer

Saxo Bank provides an execution-only service. The material on this website does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Saxo Bank accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result.

Please read our full disclaimers:
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