Forex, equities and futures strategy

Language

english
Powered by Saxo Bank

Market Analysis

05 February 2010

US Non-farm payrolls-$ buying opportunity?

Nick Beecroft, Senior Foreign Exchange Consultant

Today's release of US labour market statistics may present a good opportunity to sell Eur/Usd for those who either wish to add to positions or to get on board for the first time.

Consensus expectation is for NFP to print at +15k, and for the headline unemployment rate to stay at 10.0%.

A bad NFP figure, -75k or worse, say, would probably lead to an extension of stock market losses, aggravating the 'risk-off' move, sending USD higher across the board, (except agst JPY maybe), with Eur/Usd ending lower on the day.

A good figure, +75k or better, would lead to a relief rally in stock markets and risk and, should this extend to a rally in Eur/Usd, then I think that will represent a great chance to sell, because the declines in Eur we have seen in the last week or two, in contrast to December's move, have not been a USD story-they have, instead, been driven by the Euro's own problems-Greece specifically, now infecting sentiment across the euro periphery generally.

Stay short Eur/Usd, or be grateful for a bounce to 1.3775 to build/enter.

Add Comment

 

 

 

TAGS:

26 January 2010

FX Closing Note: Long-legged doji rhymes with uncertainty

John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank

Market feels like it has become very emotion as we are perched at key pivot areas for the risk and the USD ahead of tomorrow's Obama speech, the FOMC meeting. USD Index  - a brick wall at the 200-day moving average - or is the greenback a cheetah ready to pounce?

26 January 2010

FX Update: Renewed Chinese tightening keeps risk appetite at bay

John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank

Chinese banks are cracking down hard on lending activity. This sent Chinese stocks to a new multi-month low and soured risk appetite elsewhere. The pound is on the defensive after yet another ugly GDP reading. Is it time for a EURGBP rally?

Recent articles