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Market Analysis

05 February 2010

US Non-farm payrolls-$ buying opportunity?

Nick Beecroft, Senior Markets Consultant

Today's release of US labour market statistics may present a good opportunity to sell Eur/Usd for those who either wish to add to positions or to get on board for the first time.

Consensus expectation is for NFP to print at +15k, and for the headline unemployment rate to stay at 10.0%.

A bad NFP figure, -75k or worse, say, would probably lead to an extension of stock market losses, aggravating the 'risk-off' move, sending USD higher across the board, (except agst JPY maybe), with Eur/Usd ending lower on the day.

A good figure, +75k or better, would lead to a relief rally in stock markets and risk and, should this extend to a rally in Eur/Usd, then I think that will represent a great chance to sell, because the declines in Eur we have seen in the last week or two, in contrast to December's move, have not been a USD story-they have, instead, been driven by the Euro's own problems-Greece specifically, now infecting sentiment across the euro periphery generally.

Stay short Eur/Usd, or be grateful for a bounce to 1.3775 to build/enter.

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25 January 2010

FX Update: Too much fear or are we just getting started?

John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank

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25 January 2010

FX Update: Wall St finishes with its worst weekly performance since March

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